Between Riyadh and Tel Aviv: Spy games and secret relations

Congratulations, we’ve managed to gain a foothold, and not at the best timing. Two leading newspapers in Riyadh say Israel successfully planted two Mossad agents in Saudi Arabia, who were active for several months without raising any suspicions.

According to the report, the two agents are Israeli Arab citizens who were given passports of a third Arab country. They arrived at the kingdom pretending to look for work, but when they appeared extra diligent and began asking too many questions, they were put under secret surveillance and captured. It’s unclear when and where they were apprehended. The authorities have only promised that the trial will begin “soon.”

Crown Prince Salman. Everything in Saudi Arabia today is interesting (Photo: Getty Images)

The report noted that this is the second time Saudi intelligence uncovers an Israeli agent. Five years ago, a Jordanian national was arrested on suspicion of collecting intelligence information for his operators in Israel with whom he corresponded by email, according to the indictment. He was sentenced to nine years in jail, and received 80 lashes at once before being thrown into prison.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia isn’t alone: Every time there seem to be tensions in one of the neighborhood’s countries, the easiest thing to do is to divert the fire towards “the Zionist entity.” It works well, it hits the mark and it unites everyone.

Numerous Mossad agents have been caught in Egypt before and after the peace agreement, and television series “based on the Mukhabarat cases” have huge ratings. The stories always involve a male or female agent who were uncovered, arrested and confessed to being sent to undermine the regime.

In Lebanon’s too, Israel has become part of the secular ruling party’s wars with its aggressive partners in Hezbollah. That doesn’t mean Israel’s hands are clean. We’re no angles. But it’s interesting to see how Hezbollah has made it a habit to “uncover” the agents and generously hand them over to the military legal authorities every time there are internal tensions. It’s a fixed pattern: They are either “exposed” while working in one of the army’s communication or purchase sections, or a mole is caught red-handed during a recruitment process and establishment of a local branch of the Israeli Mossad.

It’s not that there’s nothing to look for in Saudi Arabia. On the contrary, it’s the most fascinating country in the Arab world for more than a year now, creating dramas we’ve never experienced before and still don’t know how to interpret.

Salman in Washington. US intelligence agencies are likely ignoring President Trump’s smiles and conducting the closest secret surveillance. (Photo: Reuters)

Israel definitely has good reasons to look for information about Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the acting king. Washington’s intelligence agencies are likely ignoring President Donald Trump’s smiles and conducting the closest secret surveillance. In the Arab world too, partners and bitter enemies are searching for covert channels into the closed kingdom.

Everything in Saudi Arabia today is interesting: The tensions with Iran, the war in Yemen, the internal social-economic revolution, the detainment and forced resignation of the Lebanese prime minister, the noisy dismissals and the conflicts within the royal family. And the big question is: When will the young crown prince decide that the time has come to crown himself?

We know very little about the confidential relationship between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. The fact is that it’s forbidden to criticize Israel in Saudi Arabia. The fact is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knew in advance that Saudi Arabia would allow the Indian airline to fly across its territory to Israel, and he often talks about the great admiration he is detecting from Arab countries in the Persian Gulf. The fact is that Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman is urging the Saudi prince to “come out of the closet,” muster the courage “like Sadat” and stop hiding what’s cooking.

Anyone looking for further proof should enter the “Saudis against normalization” website, which is operated by the royal family’s opponents. Here you’ll find tales about the banality of the normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv and about the smart Israeli security systems installed in the Riyadh palaces. It’s no wonder that less than 24 hours after Lieberman issued his “come out of the closet” call, Saudi Arabia responded by uncovering the Israeli espionage cell, which did or did not exist.

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Trump’s ‘madness’ may be doing the trick

In 1994, something seemed to be happening between the United States and North Korea. With former US President Jimmy Carter’s help, Kim Il-sung, the nuclearizing country’s former leader, vowed to halt the nuclear development in exchange for international aid.

But the agreement didn’t last long. North Korea dishonored the international community in general and the US in particular, and succeeded in developing a nuclear weapon despite the sanctions.

Has almost a quarter of a century made any difference? Can we trust the declaration made by Kim Jong-un, the former leader’s son, that his country is finally going to abandon its nuclear weapons?

Trump’s threats in the Korean arena are working, and that’s exactly what Iran is afraid of (Photo: EPA)

The next stage is coming up, a meeting between the tyrant from Pyongyang and US President Donald Trump. Contrary to previous reports, Kim has presented conditions for the disarmament, which means nothing has been finalized yet.

One thing is clear: Tehran is closely examining every piece of information. There are initial signs that Trump’s threats are working in the Korean arena, and that’s exactly what Iran is afraid of, because Trump’s success in one arena will pave the way.

The European countries, primarily France and Germany, which are in principle against changing the nuclear agreement with Iran, have also started to blink. They understand Trump is insisting. They have also started talking about the need for a certain change.

Trump’s insistence, against the opinion of all experts and advisors and commentators, may actually be doing the trick. Now, we’re about to be flooded with commentaries arguing that even if there is an achievement or breakthrough, it shouldn’t be attributed to Trump. The Iranians, however, understand what the commentators are refusing to understand—that the rules of the game are changing. And they are definitely troubled by that.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in (Photo: AFP)

The nuclear agreement with Iran is a bad agreement, mainly because it gave the Shi'ite country an open-ended ticket to a Middle Eastern expansion. Since the agreement was signed, Iran has turned into a regional power that controls—fully or partially—Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and influences Hamas as well. And its appetite is only growing.

It’s true that Iran is in the middle of an economic crisis. It’s true that the Iranian currency is collapsing. It’s true that there are different streams in Iran. But the thing is, as an exiled Iranian professor told me a decade ago, the Iranian regime doesn’t go by rational or conventional rules. Its logic is similar to Hamas’ logic: The most important thing is the damage inflicted on the enemy, regardless of the harm to Iran’s residents. That’s why it’s more important to invest a fortune in a military infrastructure in Syria than to solve Iran’s economic problems. Just like Hamas prefers to invest tens of millions of dollars in the industry of death than in the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction.

 

We must admit that the rational Western approach has failed miserably in the face of the North Korean and Iranian madness. Appeasement is perceived as weakness. So to make some kind of change, there may be a need for an American leader whose conduct is slightly “insane.” In this sense, contrary to what I myself thought, the Trump method may be providing to yield dividends. Kim wouldn’t have changed his stance if it weren’t for Trump’s tough stance.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The rules of the game are changing (Photo: AFP)

Which leads us to the Palestinian arena. An American success vis-à-vis Pyongyang will weaken Tehran’s bargaining position, which in turn will affect Trump’s peace plan in regards to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s possible, just possible, that the US is delaying the presentation of its peace plan until it reaches a much stronger position after the developments in the Korean and Iranian arenas.

In recent months, the Palestinians have adopted an ultra-scornful approach towards the US in general and Trump in particular. It’s possible that in a few weeks from now, they will meet a new Trump. Granted, that won’t make them give up fantasies like “the right of return,” and the right-wing government in Israel would not rush to accept a peace plan which includes conceding most of Judea and Samaria. But there is a difference between a plan presented by an inarticulate and rejected Trump and a peace plan presented by a president who has scored considerable achievements in the international arena.

We are in the midst of a fascinating diplomatic chess game. Trump is making unpredictable and unrecommended moves in every sphere, including moving the American embassy to Jerusalem. There’s no need to be one of his fans to admit that if he succeeds, we’ll be living in a slightly more civilized world. And I will be forced to eat my hat too. Inshallah.

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Iran, Syria left in awkward situation as 'enemy' attackers unknwon

Who was behind Sunday night’s attack on several Assad army bases in Syria? As the clouds of smoke dissipate from the areas struck by the missiles, it seems quite likely that whoever attacked the targets used by Syrian and Iranian-backed forces may have been trying to send a message.

That message, which was directed both at the Syrian regime and at the Russians, says that as long as the Iranians have a military presence in Syria, a political agreement will remain impossible and the seven-year civil war won’t come to an end.

Target bombed in Aleppo, Syria

So far, there is no reliable information pointing to the identity of whoever struck in northern and central Syria on Sunday night. What we do know is that the missiles hit Syrian army camps and arms depots in two areas which are relatively far away from each other, some in the city of Aleppo and some near the city of Hama, which is located more than 100 kilometers south of Aleppo in central Syria.

 

We also know that some of the attacked bases—especially those near Hama, but also those in the Aleppo area—were used by Shiite militias sent by the Iranians to fight in Syria. Hezbollah is present in some of these bases as well. The rest are bases and arms depots belonging to the Syrian army.

Footage of one of the strikes

The Syrian army has been launching attacks from these bases, together with Shiite militia from Iraq and Pakistan and Hezbollah forces, against the main center of Syrian rebels in the Idlib district, which is located between the two Syrian army centers that were attacked. All the groups opposing the regime operate from this district.

The Syrians have said recently that they plan to launch an attack near the city of Homs, southeast of Hama, to destroy the rebel centers there, just like they did in the eastern Ghouta area near Damascus.

We also know that the Syrian bases that were attacked Sunday night aren’t far from an enclave mostly controlled by Kurdish forces, in northeast Syria, east of the Euphrates River. These forces operate under the guidance and direction of American advisors and carry out their orders. The enclave, which is about a quarter of Syrian territory, is basically under US military control. It borders the Al-Qa'im area in Iraq and the Syrian city of Qamishli on the border with Turkey.

Syrian rebels. The goal is to prevent Iranian-backed militias from taking over the region (Photo: AP)

Furthermore, the Americans have a large base in the Al-Tanf area in Syria, near with borders with Jordan and Iraq. From this base, the Americans conduct joint activities with their Kurdish allies as well as with other rebels towards the area of Palmyra, in a bid to prevent the Iranian-backed militias from taking over the area and creating a land corridor between Tehran and Damascus. Activities are launched from this area towards a different border crossing as well, between Iraq and Syria, near the city of Abu Kamal. Like in two previous cases in the past month, according to Arab media reports, the bases were attacked with precision-guided surface-to-surface rockets and missiles armed with bunker-busting warheads. These kinds of missiles and rockets are used by the US Army and are produced by the Israeli military industries—Rafael, Israel Aerospace Industries and Israeli Military Industries. One of these missiles, LORA (Long Range Attack), is a heavy missile with a range of more than 300 kilometers. Its warhead, which weighs hundreds of kilograms, is highly accurate. Another missile, called EXTRA (Extended Range Artillery), has a range of 150 kilometers. Some of the Syrian reports claimed the missiles that hit Syrian targets on Sunday night were fired from Jordanian territory. This information is likely false, as Jordan is an Arab country that wouldn’t risk a direct attack on the Syrian army from its territory for fear of retaliation. It’s possible, however, that the missiles were launched from the Jordanian border area, but from Syrian territory, by the rebels or by rebels cooperating with a different military force.

Iran’s Rouhani and Syria's Assad put in an awkward situation (Photos: AP, EPA)

The conclusion, therefore, is that Sunday night’s attack and two previous attacks carried out in the past month were likely joint initiatives by Syrian rebels and other military forces armed with highly accurate missiles and rockets, which are capable of infiltrating bunkers and underground arms depots. The partners in this new military initiative that we have been witnessing in recent weeks have an interest in harming both Syrian army forces (which is the rebels’ goal) and the Iranian forces operating in Syria, including the Iranian-backed Shiite militias and Hezbollah. Both Israel and the United States have an interest in targeting the Iranian forces or the Iranian-backed forces operating in Syria. These initiatives to attack Syrian army centers and Iranian-backed facilities and units on Syrian territory—from Syrian territory—make it easy to cover up the attackers’ identity, leaving the Iranians and Syrians in an awkward situation. The fact that the strikes are carried out by Syrian rebels from the Idlib district or from rebel-controlled enclaves in eastern Syria makes it impossible for the Iranians, Syrians and Russians to hold Israel or the US accountable. We should also pay attention to the fact that shortly after the missile blasts rocked Syria on Sunday night, reports emerged that US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had discussed issues related to Iran. We may be witnessing a new military coalition operating against Iranian interests and in favor of the rebels on Syrian territory.

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A Jewish future? Only in Israel

I read the forecasts on the Jewish people’s future across the universe in several generations from now very carefully, and with all due respect to the demography experts, I disagree with their forecasts. In my opinion, they are simply too optimistic and incompatible with the reality of the past few years.

After visiting many countries around the world over the years, and being a rationalist, I am convinced there will be a dramatic decrease in the Jewish population in most countries worldwide in six or seven generations from now, and in some countries it will most likely disappear altogether.

For example, if there are about 7,000 Jews living in Denmark, which has less than six million residents, how can they survive? Clearly, most of them won’t find a partner within the community, and everyone knows that mixed marriages usually lead—after several generations—to a loss of the Jewish identity. And that makes complete sense.

The American Jewish community will also disappear eventually, apart from the ultra-Orthodox (Photo: AFP)

What about countries with a relatively large Jewish population? In the United States, for example, the number of Jews in the general population of 327 million residents is about 5.5 million. Clearly, the Jewish community there will last longer than the Jewish community in Denmark, Belgium or Spain.

It’s pretty clear, however, that the American Jewish community will also disappear eventually, apart from the ultra-Orthodox. But the latter make up only a very small percentage of the US Jewry, and the rate of mixed marriages there keeps growing and has already reached 60 percent, according to data.

Even though some of those who live in mixed families claim to lead a Jewish life and maintain a Jewish identity, as the Reform Jews have been trying to convince us, they will assimilate completely within several generations. The undeniable fact is that the Jewish people in the Diaspora are losing tens of thousands of members every year.

If the non-Jewish wife in a mixed family is against performing a circumcision on the couple’s baby boy, what will her Jewish husband do? Divorce her? Of course not. After all, they married out of love and a desire to start a family together. Moreover, the baby isn’t considered Jewish according to the Halacha.

And then the husband convinces himself that he can be Jewish even without circumcising his children, that a Christmas tree at home isn’t a religious act but a traditional custom, that studying in Jewish educational institutions isn’t necessary for maintaining a Jewish identity, etc.

Although Diaspora Jews enjoy freedom of religion and faith and aren’t facing an existential threat, many of them are drifting away from their Jewishness (Photo: AFP)

The situation is similar in the opposite case, when the wife is Jewish and the husband isn’t, even if the child is definitely considered Jewish. For how long? Until he marries a non-Jewish woman.

Most members of the Jewish people, who were scattered across the world, managed to survive and avoid assimilation for 2,000 years. Despite decrees and riots and annihilation, they insisted on sticking to their faith and succeeded. And now, when Jews enjoy freedom of religion and faith—at least in Western countries—and aren’t facing an existential threat, many of them are drifting away from their Jewishness.

The only country in the world where the number of Jews keeps growing on an annual basis is Israel, of course. Nearly 6.5 million Jews live in the country today, the birthrate is increasing and the number of immigrants is greater than the number of people who leave the country for different reasons. Seventy years after the Jewish state’s establishment, it is clear to everyone that in light of the growing assimilation rates, the future of the Jewish people can only be found in Israel.

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Ten teens were killed by a national mindset, not flash floods

Ten Israeli teenagers are dead. They died when a flash flood swept them away during a hike in a flood-prone area in south Israel, which was organized by a pre-military academy. They were victims of what could be described as a natural disaster. But sadly, it was not a natural disaster. It was a very avoidable human disaster that resulted from what I believe is a regrettable attitude that is rampant within Israeli society. Israel, just 70 years old, was cobbled together in a hurry. Acute housing shortages and a plethora of other problems demanded hasty solutions at the time of its birth. It is no small feat that it has burgeoned from the backwater and rundown desert of its infancy into what is often referred to as a high-tech powerhouse in such a short period.

Their hope that everything would surely work out in the end, a belief enshrined in the Israeli national anthem, perhaps gave rise to the overuse of the Hebrew words “Al Tidag” (don’t worry) or “Yihiyeh B’seder” (It will be ok.)

Ela Or

Having lived in Israel for several years, it is clear to me that these simple words have likely escorted the nation through some of its toughest and darkest hours. The belief that in the end, “it will be ok”, can often translate into reality, and it can engender positivity in troublesome times. In the grand scheme of things, Israelis can say with some pride that they have been vindicated.

  

Yael Sadan

But there is a price to be paid when things are clearly not going to be ok, or when one should worry, despite the casual and dismissive use of the common phrases. One of the young girls who was scheduled to go on the trip voiced her concerns about it to her friends on whatsApp.

Maayan Barhum

“I can’t believe I’m going on a trip in such weather,” she wrote. “It doesn’t make sense for us to go to a place where everything is flooding. It’s tempting fate. We’re going to die, I’m serious.” Naturally, some of her teenage friends were unconvinced and attempted to allay her fears, telling her not to exaggerate, before declaring their faith in the organizers. “I’m sure they are sensible and will take you to other places.”

(Photo: Rafi Kotz)

Meanwhile, the “responsible” organizers were sending messages to the teenagers assuring them that it was going to be “a fun and wet and an experience! “Don’t worry,” they said. “We are well prepared for the hike and the academy has checked with the relevant authorities.” Don’t worry, they said.

Tzur Alfi

That girl who voiced her concern is now dead and her family and friends have buried her. I watched the funerals of some of the children as their loved ones bid their final farewells, as they wept, stammered, wailed and gazed at their now lifeless treasures who are never coming back. It was truly haunting. But such carelessness and the indifference of “Al Tidag” and “Yihiyeh B’seder” was bound to lead to such a tragedy on such a scale sooner or later, and of course, this is not the first time. The problem is, is that this cavalier attitude prevails throughout Israel and few think twice about it.

Agam Levy

It is the reason why cyclists on electric bikes see nothing unusual in zooming up from behind a pedestrian on on a pavement. Too many people in the law-enforcement authorities could not care less because nobody really expects to be run over by a bike. Yihyeh B’seder. Probably everyone reading has experienced this. The bike skims past you and is already meters ahead before you realize that if you had taken one unexpected step to the left or right, your life could have been forever changed, if not taken.

Ilan Bar Shalom

It is the reason that when you approach a zebra crossing, you can never quite be sure whether the driver will speed up and risk running you over, or if you can walk as a civilized pedestrian confident that you will make it across alive or in one piece. It is the reason why Israel’s car accident fatality rate is so worryingly high. The list goes on.

Shani Shamir (Photo courtesy of the family)

 Speed, cut lanes without looking, don’t use your car indicators. Al Tidag, Yihiyeh B’seder. Speaking from personal experience. I remember sitting in the back of my driving instructor’s car as I converted my license, while the pupil from the previous lesson drove us back to his home, approaching speed bumps at an unacceptably high speed with the radio blaring.

Adi Raanan

The instructor turned to him and said, “You are not supposed to do this.” The student, however, was able to silence his instructor with the words: “Don’t worry. I won’t do it in the test.” That is no exaggeration. It happened. Western and genuinely modern countries simply do not behave like this. Of course, by saying this, I am well aware that I leave myself exposed to people who would say, if I don’t like it, go somewhere else, or stop complaining. But these are very real and very worrying everyday situations that I hope we can improve as a country, rather than run away from.

I believe that the tragic death of those children is symptomatic of a far larger problem that is ubiquitous in all strands of Israeli society. It encourages the dangerous cutting of corners far too frequently and reflects a stagnation in the country’s social development.

Romi Cohen (Photo courtesy of the family)

Of course, in some situations, it is good not to worry and people can take solace in the belief that it will be ok. Yet there are also situations - like taking a group of teenagers on a hazardous hike when weather forecasts warn of a possible continuation of a storm that battered the country the day earlier and already claimed two lives - when you should worry and when there is every chance that it will not be ok and when it is blatantly clear even to an 18 year old. An investigation has now been launched, and despite the outrage, it would be wrong to presume the organizers are guilty without them first being afforded due process. Moreover, responsibility could also be shared with government ministries. It is too early to know at this stage.

Gali Balelli

But an example should be made by the courts of whoever ultimately does bear responsibility for organizing this trip with a hefty sentence for leading children to their deaths. More importantly, the government should be undertaking campaigns to prevent similar tragedies and to change some of the less desirable behavioral patterns of Israeli society that can lead to the loss of life, rather than merely weeping only after they are so needlessly lost. Without that change, too many lives will be taken and too many injuries inflicted. Perhaps when that change is made, I for one, will feel more comfortable placing my trust in Israelis when they so frequently assure me: “Al Tidag. Yihiyeh B’seder.”

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Israel’s problem: ‘Yihye beseder’

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In a 1992 speech, late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin blasted the ‘it’ll be okay’ atmosphere in Israel. This phrase, he said, usually conceals all the things that aren’t ‘okay’—arrogance and an exaggerated feeling of self-confidence, power and authority. Israel’s problem: ‘Yihye beseder’ : https://ift.tt/2w4LosH

No, Netanyahu isn’t Churchill

No, Netanyahu, you aren’t Churchill. No, Netanyahu, Ahmadinejad or Khamenei are not Hitler. No, Netanyahu, Iran isn’t Germany. And Israel of 2018, the strongest power in the Middle East, is not the Jewish people of 1938, who were scattered in the Diaspora, with no power to resist attempts to annihilate them.

Egypt enslaved us, Assyria (Syria) destroyed Israel and Babylon (Iraq) destroyed Judea. In 1967, we defeated all three of them together. We are militarily strong. The Greeks conquered us and the Romans destroyed Jerusalem because of the split between the Pharisees, Essenes and Sadducees. And now look at their failed economies and look at ours. No, Netanyahu, you’re not saving us from a holocaust and will not divide our society once again.

Churchill, who you admire, was a public servant who said that, “The price of greatness is responsibility” and didn’t ask for admiration in return for his service. Churchill, who was unsure of his path, went down to the London Underground to talk to the people.

Unlike Churchill, Netanyahu doesn't have the people's best interest in mind (Photo: Ohad Zwigenberg)

You, on the other hand, don’t have the people’s best interest in mind. You’re just looking for the manipulation that will serve you personally, as you once told Moshe Kahlon, “I’m the only one who knows how to gain Mizrahi votes. I know who they hate.”

Churchill wasn’t looking for popularity but for a solution to an existential problem, when he secured the British nation’s survival while turning the difficulties of the Dunkirk evacuation into a sweeping popular victory by enlisting the civilian fleet for the evacuation. Netanyahu is missing the opportunity to create a regional alliance with the moderate Arab states in his attempt to warn the people of a modern holocaust planned by Iran.

There is nothing more dangerous for Israel’s future than the generalization being made by Netanyahu between the delusional existential threat of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel and the tactical danger of a continued Iranian entrenchment in Syria as part of its ambition to reach regional control. The Iranian regional aspiration is real and serves as a strategic and tactical challenge that needs to be addressed and prevented. The nuclear threat, on the other hand, is a fantasy aimed at serving Netanyahu's narrow political and personal needs.

A nuclear policy isn’t a religious doctrine. Before setting in motion a critical and irreversible move like a nuclear attack, two conditions have to take place. First, victory over the attacked nation must contain a significant advantage. Second, there has to be a clear estimate that the attacked nation’s response won’t be strong enough to cancel the achievement of the attack.

Winston Churchill didn’t ask for admiration in return for his service

Such conditions may exist in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf states, whose energetic supremacy may be coveted by Iran, as long as they aren’t nuclear themselves. But only an ignorant or delusional person would imagine such a situation in Iran’s eyes concerning Israel, which doesn’t hold any strategic assets that Iran is interested in and whose possible response to an attack is perceived as comprehensive, according to foreign sources.

Should we try to stop the Iranian nuclearization, or at least slow it down? Of course. Is flexing our muscles and threatening to strike in Iran helpful? Absolutely not.

The Middle East will be nuclearized one day, and no one, including the United States, will likely be able to stop it. All they can do is slow the process down. On the day Iran is nuclearized, it will be followed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. That day, our situation will be improved only if we are part of an American-Egyptian-Turkish-Saudi alliance against a shared Iranian enemy. But our chances of being part of such an alliance depend on finding a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which Iran is using to threaten us as part of its Shiite hegemony ambition.

Churchill was envied by his rivals for the victory he achieved. Part of Netanyahu's growing popularity in the polls, however, is driven by pity towards a person perceived as a victim. When I was a child, my father said to me, “You can choose to succeed and be envied, or to fail and be pitied.” He also recommended which option I should choose.

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Bennett’s conditional stateliness

Several hundred protesters, that’s all, came to Jerusalem last Saturday evening to defend the Supreme Court against its destroyers in the government. The declared goal was to embrace the Supreme Court building all around with a chain of human defenders. But although the organizers provided transportation, the number of hands was insufficient.

The poor presence points to the Labor Party’s limited organizational abilities and to the low point it has reached on the Israeli street. It likely points to another, more alarming issue: Israelis simply don’t care.

The Labor Party urged its voters to flock to Jerusalem in light of the coalition’s discussion of the “notwithstanding clause.” Today, the High Court of Justice can strike down a law enacted by the Knesset if it contradicts basic laws. The Bayit Yehudi party wants to allow the Knesset to strike down a court’s decision to strike down a law. The pretext is the dispute over the decision to deport all African asylum seekers.

Bennett and Shaked seek to take advantage of the dispute over the Africans’ deportation to castrate the High Court’s restraining power (Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

This is a deception. The dispute over the Africans is afflicted with flattery towards racist audiences of xenophobes, but that isn’t the main motive. Ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked seek to take advantage of the dispute over the Africans’ deportation to castrate the High Court’s restraining power. Next in line will be letting the settlements evade the law. It will be followed by the law enforcement system, and then by the status of the country’s minorities.

Shaked was appointed justice minister for this precise mission. She is doing her job diligently, seriously and in compliance with the law—just like other regimes we are familiar with from history.

The Israeli legal system, led by the Supreme Court, is not free of mistakes. There are things that should be fixed, there are things that should be balanced. But even the legal system’s harshest critics know it is the foundation for Israel’s existence as state based on the rule of law, as a democratic state. This power is being challenged by Bennett and Shaked.

Bennett received many compliments for his speech at the Israel Prize ceremony on Independence Day. The compliments were well-deserved: It was clearly a stately speech, the opposite of the tribal, divisive comments made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Culture Minister Miri Regev and others on the eve of the independence celebrations.

But let there be no confusion: Stateliness is one value, and democracy is a different value. Bennett is willing to embrace all Israelis—or to be more accurate, all Israeli Jews—as long as they accept the policy he dictates to them. His stateliness is conditional.

Netanyahu wishes to use the migrant problem to impose elections on his coalition partners before being indicted (Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

Netanyahu contributes an agenda of his own to the dispute over the notwithstanding clause. He doesn’t care about the asylum seekers’ future: When he reached a reasonable solution, he quickly changed his mind. He wishes to use the problem to impose elections on his coalition partners before being indicted.

It’s that simple. That’s why he is demanding an expansion of the notwithstanding clause till it reaches the point that Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, the third hero in this saga, will be forced to dissolve the gvernment.

Kahlon isn’t interested in September elections. Neither is Bennett. They aren’t keen on being Netanyahu's suckers. In this battle, which is based solely on electoral considerations, the victim is the Supreme Court’s standing, and possibly even Israel’s continued existence as a state based on the rule of law.

The democratic rules of the game are now facing a crisis in many Western countries, from the United States to Poland and Hungary. Many of these countries’ citizens have had enough of democracy, of the constant debate, of the slow and complicated legal proceedings. They are sick and tired of what they see as the arrogance of a liberal, progressive, left-wing elite. They want a leader who will make decisions for them. They want a fiery rhetoric, not accountability. They hate—they hate foreigners, they hate minorities, they hate controversial comments. Social media has released their restrained urges. They are deluding themselves that lashing out at everything is the real freedom, the essence of democracy.

An integral part of this phenomenon is the leader’s cult of personality. Israelis have experienced eras of glorification of leaders—the Right glorified Ze’ev Jabotinsky and Menachem Begin, while the Left admired David Ben-Gurion. Bracha Habas wrote a booklet about Ben-Gurion titled “One and His Generation.” Someone distorted the headline, changing it to “One in a Generation.” It didn’t end well.

With Netanyahu, it can’t end any other way.

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As global press ignores swastika kites, Hamas is winning propaganda war

The good news from the south is that the number of protestors in the “March of Return” is decreasing. Hamas is encouraging, calling, shouting, broadcasting, publishing—but the masses are staying away.

From one Friday to the next, the numbers are dropping. Tens of thousands in the first protest; only several thousand last Friday. In this sense, at least in the current stage, it’s a failure.

The bad news is that there is no need for hundreds or tens of thousands of protestors to succeed. Just one 15-year-old boy, whose death is being investigated, is excellent fuel for the anti-Israel propaganda. And if the moment he was hit was caught on camera, it’s double trouble. It’s a great opportunity for Knesset Member Ahmad Tibi, and not just him, to turn IDF soldiers into murderers, and it’s an opportunity for the UN envoy and other functionaries and “rights activists” to use their arsenal of propaganda rockets against Israel.

Palestinian youth killed from IDF fire during Gaza border protest

The events on the Gaza border have stopped occupying a lot of space in the global press. But Natalie Portman’s announcement, unintentionally, put Gaza back in the headlines, as did the UN envoy’s statement and the European Union’s demand for an investigation into the incident. The IDF, in any event, intends on investigating.

Let’s put things in order. First of all, any killing of an innocent person is unfortunate. Hamas gains, Israel’s enemies celebrate, and Israel is the only one that loses from the situation. No one has placed cameras on the US-Mexico border, although 412 infiltrators or work migrants were killed there in 2017, and 498 in 2016, including children. But the border between Israel and Gaza, as well as the points of friction in Hebron, seem to have the highest number of cameras in the world.

Something else was caught on camera: Many of the kites flown towards Israel were marked with a swastika, in addition to carrying explosives. The mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini, was an ardent fan of the Nazis. He seems to have followers. It’s not just the Hamas Covenant or the calls for Israel’s destruction, chanted by some of the protestors. It’s also the kites carrying the Nazi symbol. And when these impassioned young people approach the fence, in an intentional provocation, with explosive kites—accidents can happen, and it’s a pity that they happen.

We shouldn’t make generalizations. It’s not that all of the strip’s residents identify with the Nazi ideology. But Hamas and its supporters, and likely many of the protestors as well, carry a message of annihilation and anti-Semitism.

The moderate ones settle for spreading the message of Israel’s destruction. That’s what Gaza resident Rana Shubair did, for example, in an article published in Hebrew in the “Sikha Mekomit” (Local Call) website. She wrote there about the “the Great Return March by the border with occupied Palestine,” to show us that when they talk about an “occupation” and about “Palestine,” they’re talking about Israel.

 

A kite marked with a swastika, flown by Gaza protestors into Israel (Photo: Twitter)

The thing is that the global media, almost without exception, ignored the protestors’ message. The swastikas didn’t appear in the New York Times or in Le Monde. But the Guardian published a letter by three members of the Breaking the Silence organization, accusing the IDF of instructing snipers to shoot to kill unarmed demonstrators.

They’re lying. There are no such orders. They didn’t bother, of course, to write a single word about the responsibility of Hamas and its supporters. On the contrary, they wrote that “harming innocent people in Gaza is part of what is needed to maintain the regime of occupation.” And if former soldiers publish a letter which leads to the conclusion that IDF soldiers are murderers, how can we complain about those newspapers’ editorials?

The lies produced by Breaking the Silence and the blind eye the global media has been turning to the protestors’ horrific messages don’t reduce Israel’s responsibility. We could have done things differently. It was clear in advance that Hamas wanted casualties, and that its propagandists would—intentionally and unintentionally—point an accusing finger at Israel. It was clear that the battle wouldn’t take place only in the border area, but also in the global media.

The damage could have been decreased by conveying a message of reaching out to the strip’s residents, who are suffering because of Hamas and not because of Israel. But nothing was done. Hamas may have failed, and the masses aren’t going out to protest, but Israel—as expected—is being defeated once again.

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Iran’s dilemma: A military conflict with Israel, yes or no?

The Persian Shah abandoned his country 39 years ago, and Tehran announced the establishment of an Islamic republic led by Ayatollah Khomeini. Its most salient characteristics were and remain religious totalitarianism, the supreme leader’s cult of personality, absolute control of the economy by the state and its arms, and an ongoing oppression of freedom of opinion and speech.

As far as Iran is concerned, Khomeini's revolution failed to achieve its goals and to create an attractive precedent for other nations. A huge failure.

The real income per capita in Iran grew by an average of 0.5 percent a year since 1980 and hasn’t grown at all in the past decade. What used to be an industrial-technological power turned into a junk yard and a black market of desired consumer goods from the West and from neighboring Arab countries.

ranian President Hassan Rouhani at a Revolutionary Guards parade (Photo: AFP)

Iran’s economy is fed by oil alone, and it still lacks investments (according to official statements) of approximately $200 billion to revive the neglected oil and gas industries. Its leaders’ craze to develop a nuclear weapon nearly destroyed the country, due to the international sanctions and the allotment of rare resources to a futile project.

 

To the citizens’ disappointment, the lifting of sanctions in the past two years helped improve Iran’s situation only on the margins. Productive Western capital hasn’t flow into Iran and its presence in global-civilian arenas has remained insignificant.

This is hardly surprising: Forty-five percent of the Iranian economy is owned by the government, about one-third is owned by the Revolutionary Guards and about one-fifth is owned by corrupt, unsupervised religious associations that are subject directly to the supreme leader. The unemployment rate among young Iranians is nearly 28 percent, only 15 percent of women participate in the labor force, and the Iranian currency’s exchange rate in the free market is dozens of percentage points lower than its official exchange rate.

This has now been joined by further trouble, which somewhat explains the Tehran regime’s nervous conduct: First, US President Donald Trump’s threat to walk away from the international agreement to reduce the sanctions in exchange for a termination of the Iranian military nuclear program, a threat which is nudging the European partners into eyeing an agreement that will step up the sanctions; second, the anti-Iranian atmosphere in the Arab world in light of Tehran’s support of Bashar Assad's murderous regime; and third, the reconciliation agreement that is taking shape between North Korea and the United States, under which Pyongyang will completely give up the development of a nuclear weapon—a considerable blow to Tehran’s military programs.

Add that to the problems in the Kremlin. Putin’s Russia is far from being a strong, stable and developed country. The scientific-technological gap between Russia and the West is much wider today than it was at the end of the communist era. President Vladimir Putin’s declarations about modern types of weapons his country is allegedly going to develop are pure illusions. Sooner or later, Putin and members of his close circle will realize that the Russian presence in Syria is a burden rather than an asset. Russia’s miserable failure to prevent the American-British-French attack on Assad's army and its desperate attempt to create a false cover story for the use of the chemical weapons are proof of that.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Photo: Reuters)

In their time of need, the conservative elements in Iran (led by the Revolutionary Guards) may see a limited conflict with Israel as an escape from the isolation and internal weakness, as a way to gain the Arab masses’ sympathy and enlist Putin as a “peace maker.” On the other hand, a quick defeat in a conflict or an unexpected entanglement could lead to a collapse of the regime in Tehran, as history sometimes shows.

Some experts on Iran believe that the military leaders’ stance differs fundamentally from the fiery stance of the Revolutionary Guards’ speakers. The latter are inclined to believe that it’s worth fighting for several bases in Syria to allow them to fulfill their old dream of turning Lebanon into an “Islamic republic” too. The former are aware of Israel’s military and intelligence abilities, aren’t looking for a conflict with us and understand that it’s a dangerous and unrealistic adventure, which will be bad for Iran. Israel, they warn, has already made it clear that it is determined not to allow the Iranians to entrench themselves on in Syria at all costs, and it is dead serious; and in the international arena, Putin is already starting to ingratiate himself with Trump.

All this does not necessarily prevent a limited Iranian-Israeli conflict. Wars in the Middle East are unpredictable and are usually strategically irrational too.

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Israelis should trust Pompeo over the Jewish voices opposing him

Because I have had the honor of serving as a citizen-soldier of the State of Israel, because I have been privileged to found an organization that has brought Israel’s professional and strategic perspective to hundreds of campuses throughout the English speaking world, and because we have briefed, and arranged dozens of briefings for, members of the United States Senate and Congress, I know and recognize a true friend of the State of Israel when I meet one.

Lamentably, such friends are all the more notable because they are a rarity.

Director Mike Pompeo, is one such friend.

I speak on the absolute nature of his commitment to our country because I have had the pleasure of collaborating with Mr. Pompeo at key moments over a number of years.

I first met him in November 2015, amidst the wave of lone wolf terror attacks that maimed and murdered innocent Israelis.

In response to the delegitimization campaign against the Israeli police for the reasonable measures they employed to subdue the attackers, our organization brought about briefings in Washington DC, in Jerusalem and on select college campuses throughout the United States.

The common element to that three pronged campaign was Mr. Pompeo.

On the Hill, he was one of a three member panel of Representatives who attended a briefing by the foreign press spokesperson for the Israeli police.

He insisted upon becoming fully acquainted with the facts and data presented, all while asking the most insightful of questions.

(Photo: EPA)

As we adjourned, Mr. Pompeo informed me that he planned to travel to Israel in the coming days and asked what more he could do to “get this story out there."

It is worthy of note that while many of our own number were canceling their visits because of the terror threat, Mr. Pompeo remained resolute in his desire to come to Israel.

He adjusted his schedule while there in order to visit the police command center where he viewed further footage of the terror attacks. He met with Israeli police officers in order to gain further insight into the challenges they were facing and he released a statement to the press based upon those meetings.

Everything that Mr. Pompeo offered to do, he did. He did so of his own volition.

For that alone, he should be applauded.

Months later, our organization again partnered with the Israeli police to bring their Senior Legal Advisor to select law schools and to Washington DC. His presentations on the Hill centered around a bicameral, bipartisan briefing to legislators and their policy staffers. Not only did Mr. Pompeo host that briefing, he personally introduced the event, outlining the context of the talk for those in attendance, drawing upon his experiences in Israel as he did so. For that alone, he be supported.

Following his appointment as Director of the CIA, we had the pleasure of hosting Mr. Pompeo as the keynote lecturer for our organizational event in New York.

While the content of his comments are not for public circulation, Director Pompeo's stated commitment to our country was unambiguous. His determination to ensure a secure future for the State of Israel was explicitly declared and emphatically conveyed and his recognition that the national interests of the United States are synonymous with a thriving Jewish State was apparent to all present. For that alone, he ought to be commended. And while the broader, domestic, American debate on the matter of who will be Secretary of State is not one in which I will engage, I do wish to address myself directly to some segments of the Jewish Diaspora, who claim that a secure Israel is central to their mission statement, but who vehemently oppose the nomination of Mr. Pompeo out of a stated deference to “Jewish values.” There exists an element within that group which has lost sight of its own priorities. They are in urgent need of a recalibration of their self espoused standards. Such groups cannot and must not be looked upon as the arbiters of which American policy is in the best interests of the State of Israel.

In recent years I have lived through several memorable events resulting from policies affixed in Washington DC. I have done so wearing the uniform of a mobilized combat reservist on more than one occasion. I know that Secretaries of State can bring about a direct, sometimes immediate impact upon the lives of our young men and women in uniform and the citizens they are sworn to defend, therefore.

I believe it to be high time that the holder of the office be someone who is a known friend of Israel, with policies toward our nation that are predicated upon realism, rather than someone whose view toward Israel is unclear and whose policies are predicated upon legacy-building obsessiveness. The ascent of Mr. Pompeo is timely, appropriate and welcomed, therefore. Israelis seek someone whose reassurances ring true, rather than hollow. Recent bearers of the title have lacked that quality.

Secretaries of State deal first and foremost in matters of foreign policy. It is therefore the members of the Jewish community in Israel, not the members of Jewish communities abroad, who will most immediately be affected, for better or for worse, by the actions of the individuals who hold this particular office.

The words and attitudes of Secretaries of State can result in life or death for Israelis. They can embolden the world against us, or blunt the will of those countries who seek to do us harm; whether economically militarily or diplomatically. Heads of Diaspora Jewish organizations must be reminded of the centrality of a secure, self determining Homeland for the Jewish people, within the list of Jewish values. While they may be right to invoke the ethos of loving one's neighbor, of setting the world to rights, or of being a light unto the nations, they are categorically wrong to do so to the exclusion of the highest Jewish value of all; the value of self preservation - pikuach nefesh!

  

Nothing is more central to the future of Jewish nationhood. It is with far too much abandon that certain groups ignore this reality.

(Photo: Reuters)

 Their "leadership" would do well to recall some basic truths as they continue to oppose Mr. Pompeo’s nomination. Firstly, when they call for an alternative nominee, they do so in the absence of any individual with a stronger record of support for Israel. That reality should not be secondary in the considerations of Jewish groups, but primary. For while these groups may support the State of Israel, it will not be they who stand in the battlefield when the call to arms rings out. It will be we Israelis who do so, in Israel.

While these groups may have a commitment toward the State of Israel, it will not be they who leave their loved ones in order to march into the unknown in the defense of their families. It will be we Israelis who do so, in Israel.

And while such groups may view the State of Israel as their Homeland, it will not be their households that are imperiled when the rockets fly and the missiles launch. That will be the fate of Israeli households, in Israel.

It will not be their country upon which the crosshairs of a nuclear Iran will be most immediately trained. It will be upon our country, Israel.

(Photo: EPA)

It is out of deference to those truths, that the nomination of Mr Pompeo ought to be supported by groups claiming to champion the best interests of Israel. Their failure to do so constitutes a dereliction of their duties.

Having worked with his good offices on several occasions, I am certain that Mr. Pompeo applies the same, reasoned, informed and principled approach to all peace-loving nations and peoples throughout the world. Those who seek a world of good neighborliness with the United States and her ally, Israel, will find a friend in Mr. Pompeo

When he says he supports the State of Israel, is committed to our security and believes in taking all measures to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, I believe him.

For in my experience with him, he has shown himself to be that rarest of individuals, a man for whom there is no disparity between his words and his deeds.

Sadly, the same cannot be said for certain groups of my own number, who prioritize opposing his nomination above the security of the Israeli people. When they tell me they support Israel, wish to ensure a secure Israel and would do all that is necessary to prevent a nuclear armed Iran, I simply no longer believe them.

I view them askance, and so should all who hold the future of the State of Israel dear to their hearts. They simply do not speak for me. I hope and expect Mr. Pompeo will indeed be confirmed within the coming days. Our countries and our peoples will be better off for it.

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Nuclear deal’s fate is now in Macron’s hands

WASHINGTON—During French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Washington, US President Donald Trump spoke about the nuclear agreement with Iran in several contradicting voices.

The two leaders have managed to create a friendship and an alliance of interests, despite the age difference (Trump is 71 years old, Macron is 40). Macron credited it to their past, saying they are both “mavericks” who managed to beat the political system in their countries.

Trump and Macron. A warm meeting at the White House (Photo: EPA)

But Macron didn’t come to Washington merely to give Trump a hug in front of the cameras, an act which is going to cost him dearly among his voters in France, who despise the American president. He arrived on a mission—to convince Trump not to walk away from the nuclear agreement with Iran.

The moment of truth is approaching. On May 12, Trump will have to decide whether to sign a fresh waiver to suspend US sanctions on Iran. If he fails to sign, it will indicate that the United States is withdrawing from the agreement. If the US is no longer part of the agreement, Iran won’t feel obligated to comply with it either. Iran has already announced that it’s “all or nothing.” And that’s the purpose of Macron’s visit to Washington—to stop Trump.

Trump and Macron meet to discuss Iran nuclear deal    (רויטרס)

It’s unclear whether Macron will accomplish his mission, but after the first day of meetings between the two leaders, it was evident that Macron had managed to charm Trump. The American president, who isn’t quick to commend anyone, neither friends nor leaders, showered his French counterpart with praise.

Throughout the entire day, Trump spoke in several different voices, which might imply that his firm stance in favor of withdrawing from the agreement at this time has been slightly undermined.

He began by defining the agreement as “insane” and “ridiculous” and saying it “should have never been made.”

(Photo: AP)

Several hours later, he sounded more appeased, suggesting he was open to "doing something" on the Iran agreement and telling Macron in front of the cameras: "We could have at least an agreement among ourselves very quickly." When he was asked by a reporter what that agreement would be, he refused to elaborate, saying: "You'll find out."

That was before the official press conference with Macron, in which he conveyed a direct message to Iran. “If Iran threatens us in any way, they will pay a price like few countries have ever paid,” he warned.

Macron stood next to Trump and said he was willing to discuss “a new deal with Iran,” but he has no intention of withdrawing from the current agreement. Macron wants to return home, to France, with some sort of achievement in his hand, an achievement which Trump can provide him with: If Macron is able to say that he influenced the president’s stand, it will help him with his voters. Trump, for his part, will be able to say that threats managed to change the agreement.

(Photo: Reuters)

Meanwhile, Macron isn’t planning to cancel the current agreement, but to add to it. In other words, to honor it until 2025, while adding clauses dealing with the Iranian presence in Syria and with its missile program. Macron will continue his US visit in this spirit when he addresses the two Houses of Congress.

The clock is ticking, and Trump has to make a decision by May 12. His close associates say the president is determined to walk away from the agreement, unless he is presented with a better alternative that meets his demands. Messages in this spirit have also been conveyed to Israel, which is applauding Trump for his decision to withdraw from the agreement.

Such a decision, however, would deepen the crisis between the US and the European Union. Experts in the American administration have also warned Trump against freeing Iran from its obligations. If that happens, they say, Iran will rush to resume its nuclear program, which was suspended after it signed the agreement.

Donald and Melania Trump host Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron (Photo: AP)

There is absolutely no chance that Trump will announce that he is reneging on his decision to withdraw. That won’t happen. What could happen is that he will postpone the deadline. In other words, he will sign a waiver suspending the sanctions on Iran and will let Macron work to achieve agreements on his idea to expand the deal in the next few months.

For that to happen, Macron will have to convince all the parties that signed the agreement—including Iran—that it is in their best interest to do so. Trump will agree to postpone the deadline only if he receives conclusive proof that there is a willingness to expand the agreement. Macron, with all his goodwill, will likely be unable to provide such proof.

Trump is convinced that if he withdraws from the agreement, Iran will make dramatic mistakes and reactivate its nuclear facilities in full force, giving him just cause to strike in Iran. His new national security adviser, John Bolton, is an enthusiastic supporter of the military option against Tehran.

It wouldn’t be far-fetched to say that the nuclear agreement’s fate is now in Macron’s hands. It wouldn’t be far-fetched to say that his chance of accomplishing his mission to keep Trump in the current agreement (without any amendments) is very slim, and that was reinforced by Trump’s statements against Iran on Tuesday.

But there is another element in this game—Trump’s personality. The American president has earned a reputation of someone who is capable of making contradicting comments and doing the exact opposite of what he has promised to do.

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Gaza protests: Hamas preparing its ‘victory picture’

They call it “The March of Return.” We refer to the military activity on the Gaza border fence as “the gatekeepers.” These are two sides of the same coin. They march, we guard. They initiate, and Israel responds.

In the past week, Israeli officials have been trying to create the impression that “the gatekeepers” have overpowered the “March of Return.” Fewer people are flocking to the the fence protests; Hamas has failed. That’s a dangerous delusion.

In recent days, the Palestinians have advanced their jumping-off points towards the border and set up tents 100-200 meters from the fence. Up until recently, the five meeting points, which included large tents, were located more than 700 meters away.

Palestinian protestors on Gaza border. The main goal of the riots is to break through the fence (Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)

Palestinian media are presenting the new deployment as “broadcasts from the front,” showing ambulances and civilian vehicles moving closer and closer to fence. The sight of Palestinian vehicles right on the borderline with Israel is something that has not been seen in the area for a long time.

According to Palestinian newspaper Al-Ayyam, “teams for breaking through the fence” have been training under the auspices of “the organizers”—in other words, Hamas—and are supposed to throw hooks at the fence and pull it down until it collapses. Parts of the looped barbed fence installed by Israel along the border have already been removed in different places. The Palestinian side has also appointed teams to “handle” the gas grenades and has built sort of catapults to launch Molotov cocktails at Israeli fields.

The main goal of the riots, orchestrated by Hamas, was and remains to break through the fence, allowing hundreds and thousands of civilians to run into Israeli territory. That’s the “victory picture” Hamas is looking for ahead of Nakba Day on May 15.

Whatever happens until then is intended to keep the momentum of riots and capture the public interest, the global one too. Each week has its own symbol: A disabled protestor in a wheelchair, a journalist and a 15-year-old boy who have been killed. It doesn’t matter if there were 3,000 or 10,000 people there, as long as the fire and the public awareness haven’t died out.

Meanwhile, Hamas has distanced itself from any external influence: It has completely cut ties with the Palestinian Authority, and the Egyptian intelligence chief who arrived at the strip about a week ago to try and lower the flames was sent back empty-handed. The Egyptians have forced Hamas to send a delegation to Cairo this week, but Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar won’t be there.

Israeli officials have been trying to create the impression that ‘the gatekeepers’ have overpowered the ‘march of return.’ That’s a dangerous illusion (Photo: AFP)

On the eve of the riots, the European Union presented Hamas with a tempting offer: Half a billion euro to rebuild Gaza’s water and electricity infrastructures. The money could be used immediately, in cooperation with the Gulf States and under the auspices of Israel and the United States. Hamas ignored the offer. It wants to break through the fence in order to change the awareness to the strip’s situation and it is willing to pay a heavy price for that, and not just in casualties.

Hamas paid more than $2 million this week to the casualties’ families. It paid double that sum last week, and a triple sum the week before. Not to mention the huge current and future expenses on the rehabilitation of hundreds of people who suffered injuries.

Hamas and the Gaza street are acting like a revolutionary society willing to pay heavy personal prices to achieve a national result. That isn’t music to our ears, but that’s the way it is.

On the day thousands of people leap to their feet undauntedly from the new tent line and start running towards the fence, the death toll from Israeli fire will grow from 40 so far to hundreds. Those who cross the fence will run amok into Israel to evade the fire. Thousands will walk about on the main routes between the communities, and maybe even inside the communities. This isn’t an imaginary scenario. It has already happened in the Golan Heights.

If that happens, Hamas will be able to declare a perceptual victory of breaking through the siege and then start making demands in light of everyone’s shock. Israel, on the other hand, will be accused of massacring Gaza’s starving residents and will pay a heavy price.

If that’s what happens on Nakba Day, a flare-up in the West Bank seems very likely as well. To avoid reaching that point, the IDF must start thinking differently. No more “gatekeepers.” It must start looking for something more creative than leaflets explaining to the Palestinians why it isn’t worth their while.

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Natalie Portman is just a symptom of US Jewry’s changing attitude towards Israel

We don’t have to agree with Natalie Portman or support her boycott of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. We can even disagree with her opinions and perceptions on the Palestinian issue and on whether there is or isn’t an occupation. But we definitely shouldn’t ignore the nervously ringing alarm bells emerging from the famous Jewish actress’s declarative move.

This move may have been the result of her own personal feelings. That’s possible. But Portman, in her boycott of Netanyahu and his policy, stands firm on stable ground (which is expanding, unfortunately)—fertile ground of a deep ideological dispute from which US Jewry is growing these days.

The figures are familiar and have been rehashed numerous times: About 80 percent of US Jews voted for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election. In other words, they voted for the Democratic Party. In other words, they voted for the complete opposite of everything represented by Donald Trump, Netanyahu's soul mate and the person many US Jews despise.

We shouldn’t ignore the alarm bells emerging from the famous Jewish actress’s declarative move (Photo: Getty Images)

Portman is part of this Jewry—enlightened, progressive, self-confident, well-established, humane and engaged—a Jewry which doesn’t turn a blind eye to human rights, Jewish morals and universal values, in America or in Israel.

This Jewry isn’t ignoring Israel and its policy, as it is portrayed in recent years, but has no trouble criticizing it. It isn’t ignoring it, because Israel is still part of the DNA of most of America's Jews.

But even a DNA changes through the generations. Indeed, US Jewry has undergone a considerable change in the past two decades. Israel may still cause vibrations among some people, but many people see it as annoying and divisive.

American Jewry’s ideological detachment in 2018 from what the only democracy in the Middle East represents is a fait accompli. We can be moved to tears by the prime minister’s reception at the recent AIPAC conference, and we can also remember that the 20,000 attendees are exactly what they are: 20,000 people out of almost 7 million, or a bit less.

And those who didn’t applaud enthusiastically slightly outnumber those who stood there and cheered as if they were at a rock concert.

WATCH: Natalie Portman explains Hebrew slang

We can rely on the Pew studies and polls to feel good about ourselves concerning Americans’ love for Israel. On the other hand, we can also remember that the Democrats haven’t really forgotten about the brawl between Netanyahu and former president Barack Obama and are still looking into its impact in an era of rapid changes in American demography.

Back to Natalie Portman: It would be very dangerous to see her defiant move as a passing episode or a meaningless provocation.

She is much more than that: She is a symbol of dramatic changes taking place in the interfamilial relations, a sign of US Jews’ profound disapproval of what they see as a very problematic direction the Jewish state is headed in. At the end of the day, it’s their state too.

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