Principles vs. interests in Israel-Poland relations

When Netanyahu is right, he's right. The agreement he reached with the Polish government removed the criminal aspect from the law against attributing responsibility to the Polish people for the Nazis' crimes during World War II. The law remains a declarative one, with no practical meaning.

  Netanyahu had to pay a price for the Polish withdrawal: He agreed to issue a joint statement with Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki which dwarfs the Poles' role in the horrors of the Holocaust. Sever Plocker, who wrote a comprehensive article about the joint statement this week in Yedioth Ahronoth, came out against parts of it. "It is controversial, distorted and outrageous," he wrote.

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (Photo: Reuters)

I agree with every word. The statement is fake history. But even so... Prime ministers are not historians. When David Ben-Gurion talked about the "other Germany," he had no authority to give German a stamp of approval only a few years after the Holocaust. He saw before him an Israeli interest—an economic and security interest—and made it a top priority. Israel desperately needed aid from Germany, and its prime minister was willing to pay the price. There were those who cursed him for this; others blessed him. In hindsight, it seems like he was right.

In Israel's relations with foreign governments, there are principles and there are interests. The principle, if we can use an example from the margins of the news, says that the Eurovision must be held in Jerusalem, Israel's capital. We must not desecrate the Shabbat for it, not in Jerusalem, and we must not be deterred from splitting the Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation, just as the government had decided.

Poland's lower house debating the Holocaust law (Photo: Reuters)

However, the interest is to have the Eurovision in Israel: It's good for tourism, it's good for public relations, it's good for the voters. If the price is to forego having it in Jerusalem, we'll forego having it in Jerusalem; if the desecration of the Shabbat is required, we'll desecrate the Shabbat; if we need to postpone the IPBC's split, we'll postpone it. Netanyahu understands this. Regev didn't, and she suffered for it. Regev is an expert in small scandals, she can't see the bigger picture. A lot of headlines, zero influence. In the end, she'll be relegated to a lower league.

The relationship with Poland is a more complex matter. The past is difficult. The current Polish government is not making it any easier. Its attitude towards history is bordering on Holocaust denial; its roots are anti-Semitic; its policies are nationalistic, anti-democratic, and plagued with xenophobia. Israel had an interest to uproot the law that turned telling the truth about the Holocaust into a criminal offense. It also has security interests in Poland. Principles vs. interests. We just need to hope Netanyahu doesn't believe the statement he signed. The question of what the Poles did during the Holocaust will not be determined with a statement made by prime ministers. Prime ministers come and go. The historical truth will forever stand.

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The Palestinian paradox: 70 years of perpetuating refugeeism

“The Palestinian side won by a knockout,” said Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, the IDF’s international spokesperson.

Well, of course. That’s the result of the “wait and see” policy. Hamas knows it won’t defeat Israel in the battlefield. But it knew in advance that it would defeat Israel in the global public opinion. Hamas wasn’t the only one that knew that. Any sensible person knew that.

Israel should have made the Palestinians in Gaza, including Hamas, an offer they couldn’t refuse a long time ago. I have repeated this claim, I must say, like Cato the Elder.

Most of the refugees registered by UNRWA are no longer in refugee camps or don’t even exist (Photo: Reuters)

Now, Hamas is proposing a hudna. The proposal’s precondition, senior Israeli officials responded, doesn’t meet Israel’s demands. Such foolishness. Not only is Israel failing to initiate anything, it is also rejecting a Hamas proposal.

When Hamas propose something, Israel should first of all say yes, and add that the hudna must be based on the international community’s terms. Does Israel have anything to lose? No.

But Israel, once again, is winning on the Gaza border and suffering a defeat in the global media. That’s what Hamas wanted. That’s what Hamas got. And the admission of senior Hamas official Salah Bardawil, that 50 of the Palestinians killed on May 14 were Hamas members, doesn’t help Israel in any way. We have lost this conflict—not because of Hamas, but because of Israeli foolishness.

The details of US President Donald Trump’s new peace initiative don’t matter. We already know what the Palestinian reaction will be in advance. Those who rejected Bill Clinton’s proposal, who rejected Ehud Olmert’s proposal and who turned down Barack Obama and John Kerry’s proposal will turn down Trump’s new proposal as well.

The thing is there is no need to give up. In order to do some good to the Middle East, and in order to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is a need to drain the conflict’s biggest swamp—the refugee problem.

For 70 years now, the international community has been helping the Palestinians, mainly those who are called—for some reason—refugees. Tens of millions of people became refugees following the dissolution of empires, wars, conflicts and the establishment of nation states. The United Nations created the International Refugee Organization (IRO) in 1947 to deal with the refugees of World War II.

The Arab world stubbornly refused to rehabilitate the refugees (Photo: UNRWA Archive)

Two years later, in late 1949, the organization’s name was changed to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to deal with all of the world’s refugees. Well, not exactly all of them. Because five days after the UNHCR’s establishment, another body was created to deal with the refugees of Palestine—the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). Only with them.

Why was there a need for another body? Because the UNHCR was supposed to deal with the integration and rehabilitation of refugees. The Arab states objected. They wanted a body which wouldn’t deal with integration or rehabilitation. They wanted a body that would work to perpetuate the problem. The definition of a refugee was different and broader, the budgets were much bigger, etc. And most importantly, the UNHCR dealt with 50 million refugees—and they aren’t refugees. UNRWA, on the other hand, started off with 711,00, and today the number of registered refugees is 5.3 million. Everything has been reversed.

Since its establishment until today, from 1950 to 1918, the international community has allotted huge sums to UNRWA, which are worth today $40-45 billion. Considering the number of refugees and the size of the families (seven births per woman) when the problem was created, we are talking about $500,000 per family. Even if it were much less, only $250,000, it’s a huge sum.

Considering the purchasing power in the region’s countries, had the international community invested this huge capital in buying an apartment and a car and a farm for each family, a huge sum would have been left for investments in infrastructure, in industry, in welfare and in education. But 70 years of refugeeism are 70 years of perpetuating refugeeism.

UNRWA started off with 711,000 refugees and says it is dealing with 5.3 million today (Photo: UNRWA Archive)

For the sake of comparison, the UNHCR, which was created five days before UNRWA, dealt with 50 million refugees, none of whom are refugees today. UNRWA, on the other hand, hit the road with 711,000 refugees and says it is dealing with 5.3 million today.

To understand the paradox, I must add that in late 1950 the UN decided to create another body, the United Nations Korean reconstruction Agency (UNKRA), to handle the reconstruction of Korea, and mainly the refugees—1 to 3 million people who were penniless. This body operated until 1958. Its budget was $148 million (worth about $1.4 billion today). The money donations stopped and the “refugee problem,” like all the refugee problems from the previous decades, disappeared. The transit camps in Israel, which were mainly used to take in the refugees of the Jewish Nakba, operated for several years too, and most of them were emptied out by the late 1950s. The Palestinians are the only ones perpetuated as refugees.

The amazing paradox is that the more the international community invested in the refugees of Palestine—and it invested in them more than it invested in any other refugee in the world—the problem only grew bigger. The Arab world stubbornly refused to rehabilitate the refugees (as detailed in Einat Wilf and Adi Schwartz’s book “The War for the Right of Return,” which was published this week). The stubbornness was only and exclusively about the perpetuation of refugeeism.

The Center for Near East Policy Research keeps exposing what is taking place behind the walls of UNRWA schools, and especially the brainwashing concerning the “right of return.” There is no such right. Tens of millions of people became refugees those years. None of them received a “right of return.” There were occasionally claims from expelled and uprooted people in Europe, who demanded the restitution of property and a return.

 

An UNRWA school. Brainwashing regarding the ‘right of return’

The European Court of Human Rights discussed the most important claim in this area. Refugees from the Turkish side of Greece, following the Turkish invasion in 1974, demanded a restitution of property. The situation has changed, the court ruled, and dismissed the claim.

There were other claims. Jews claimed property that was expropriated from them in Egypt. In practice, no one received compensation. But the refugees from Palestine, who were Arabs at the time and later became Palestinians, keep fostering just one fantasy: A return.

To somehow solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is a need for a different route based on the following principle: No more perpetuation of refugeeism, but rather a rehabilitation of refugees. There is no need to terminate UNRWA right away. And anyway, most of those registered by UNRWA are no longer in refugee camps or don’t even exist (only 177,000 of the 450,000 people registered in Lebanon are actually in Lebanon). Many others are Jordanian citizens or residents of the Palestinian Authority, and others have moved to Europe with hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria. The remaining ones should be handled by the UNHCR.

Trump’s peace plan will fail just like all previous plans, but the American administration can change direction regarding the refugees. This is a historic opportunity, because some Arab states have changed their stance. And dissolving UNRWA, which was impossible in the past, is becoming more possible today. It’s good for the Palestinians, to wean them off their fantasies, it’s good for the Middle East, it’s good for Israel and it will only raise the chances of peace.

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New State Solution: The shift both peoples need

Since the creation of British Mandatory Palestine in the early 20th century, and the drafting of borders over territory encompassing the western Land of Israel, the concept of two states for two peoples has been adopted as the sole paradigm for a solution to competing Jewish and Arab territorial claims.

Such was the framework that undergirded key efforts to resolve the conflict—from the 1937 Peel Commission to the 1993 Oslo Accords.

An underlying fundamental assumption, presumed to enjoy clear consensus, has rested on the premise that the Arab peoples within the apportioned territory would be organized into a single Palestinian state—and not multiple Palestinian states.

Israel and Egypt from space at night (Photo: NASA)

In the summer of 2005, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon withdrew Israel from the Gaza Strip. We will never know his strategic vision for what would follow the withdrawal, but since that moment a new reality has emerged.

Following the failure of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to establish itself as an effective governing body in Gaza, and the subsequent assertion of Hamas rule in its place, the Gaza Strip has become a de-facto state—both in conduct and in function. The disconnect between the PA in Ramallah and the Hamas government in Gaza has created an ever-widening fissure in the two-state paradigm. The Palestinians themselves have split into two entities, each clearly identified.

Israel’s Gaza withdrawal was not the cause of that rift, but it catalyzed a pre-existing division between Gazan Palestinians who reside on the coast and the Judea and Samaria (the “West Bank”) Palestinians, who reside in the mountains.

Beyond considerable, internal differences between the Palestinians of Gaza and Judea and Samaria, one also witnesses different modes of interaction with Israelis between these two groups.

Coasts in Sinai (Photo: Yael Ponisovksy-Bergelson)

In the Gaza Strip, from which the State of Israel carried out a complete withdrawal, total spatial separation was created with a defined border surrounded by a rigid security infrastructure.

In Judea and Samaria, by contrast, a unique interaction has come into being, characterized by only a partial separation between Palestinians and Israelis, and clear areas of integration and cooperation. There, the Israeli and Palestinian territory is not subject to an absolute divide. There is an interweaving of land and people. Despite efforts on the part of some Palestinians to avoid Israelis, and vice-versa, in this model, contact between the two groups continues. At times there is friction, but there are also instances of coexistence. Far beyond security cooperation between Israel and the PA, on the civil level, many roadways are shared, and there is substantial interaction in the realm of commerce. More than 100,000 Palestinian workers regularly enter Israeli communities for work, with the impact of that employment improving their standard of living, and that of their families and wider communities.  

From inception, the center of the PA’s institutions of government was in Ramallah and its administration prioritized the population of Judea and Samaria, relegating the Gaza Strip to a peripheral district and consideration. Despite the widening disconnect between Ramallah and Gaza however, the international community has continued to see the PA government as the address for both entities.

Due to unyielding attachment to that paradigm, two fundamental assumptions have been preserved.

The first is that the solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict lies in the division of the land into two states, drawn within the lines of the former British Mandate. The second assumption is that there exists only one Palestinian entity. Yet the time has come to acknowledge that a significant change in circumstances has pried open the door to a discussion of a new paradigm.

In the 1978 peace negotiations between Israel and Egypt, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat negotiated the return of Sinai but chose to leave the Gaza Strip in the hands of Israel. The internationally imposed border in Rafah, resulted in the division between West Rafah under Egyptian sovereignty, and East Rafah under Israeli sovereignty, rendering the Gaza Strip dependent upon Israel in every aspect, including aspects of population growth and land development.

The development space of the Gaza Strip was thus locked between Israel from the north and east, and Egypt from the west. Gaza, built over generations as an important station on the ancient “via-maris" trade route between Egypt and Mesopotamia, lost its significance as a trade junction. Like a once thriving train station now on an abandoned railroad track, this demotion was the beginning of Gaza’s economic distress, but rebuilding that economic track for Gaza still holds unrealized potential. That rebuilding ought to be undertaken. In order to do so we must move our thinking beyond from the limitations that have brought about the current impasse.

A beach in Sinai (Photo: Yosef Magad)

In the context of this economic, social, and political background, a plan known as the New State Solution has emerged, seeking a paradigmatic shift in focus from Ramallah to Gaza, and beyond—into the Northern Sinai Peninsula. By prioritizing Gaza, where almost half of the Palestinians reside, instead of Judea and Samaria, where past state building efforts have focused and floundered, an intersection of interests and opportunity is coming into visible existence.

Physically, the open lands between Rafah and Egypt’s El-Arish offer the sheer space needed for economic and infrastructure development. And just as Palestinians from Judea and Samaria find employment in Israeli communities and industrial zones, so too Gazans can find work permits to help develop the burgeoning northern Sinai economy, with particular potential for tourism along the area’s pristine coastline. This would bring together a massive Gazan work force with a massive New State works project - for the good and the future of the people who would build upon and live in the land.

To be sure, such a process depends heavily on Egyptian consent. Of course, Egypt will not easily give up Egyptian sovereign territory but, it is possible to find creative ways that do not necessarily require sovereign concession. The potential positive impact of such an arrangement for the Egyptian economy and population would rally international support and investment, and boost Egyptian geopolitical standing.

Of course, Hamas will not abandon its dreams of a state from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, but if the standard of living for young Gazans improves, the next generation will prove more likely to abandon these fantasies as counterproductive.

As is often the case, glaring opportunities sometimes hide in plain sight, in the void. The northern Sinai, as an open, undeveloped space, is a place of potential opportunity that is awaiting a comprehensive initiative; one that will benefit all the peoples of the region. To actualize this we must redraw the borders of our own thinking away from that which has not worked toward a paradigm that will.

Gershon HaCohen (Res.) concluded his service in the IDF at the rank of Major-General. His military experience includes commanding troops on the Egyptian and Syrian fronts, commanding an IDF corps and serving as commander of the IDF military college.

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Sara Netanyahu chose the disgrace of an indictment over common sense

There is only one reason for the indictment filed by the State Attorney’s Office against the prime minister’s wife on Thursday, which includes a charge of fraud under aggravated circumstances. It’s called stinginess, a word which in this case doesn’t do justice to the defendant’s qualities.

All those who believe the repeated claims made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates about ongoing personal persecution of the prime minister’s wife should read the indictment. I think even those who are convinced that "there is nothing because there was nothing" will get the impression that there actually was something.

'You want me to pay?' the queen asks (Photo: Reuters)

If this isn’t about a psychological problem which some good therapy may have been able to solve, or at least to save her from an indictment, the charges revealed on Thursday tell the story of a petty and stingy woman who does everything she can to impose her personal expenses and her family’s expenses on the state. And the state, might I remind you, is us. It isn’t them.

This indictment confirms many stories we have already heard about the prime minister’s wife. For example, that she cursed and shouted at Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked who had received a salary from Netanyahu as part of his bureau staff without her knowledge, accusing them of robbing her sons from their last slice of bread. Not to mention every single expense, from memorial candles to outdoor furniture, which the public has been required to fund. And although we were familiar with the stories, this is the first time we receive an official legal authorization that the first lady is simply a liar.

It turns out that it’s not takeout trays, as Benjamin Netanyahu mockingly referred to it, but gourmet meals from luxury restaurants. Thousands of shekels per meal are not exactly a takeout tray from a diner in the market. Mahneyuda may be a restaurant at the Mahane Yehuda Market, but it costs thousands of shekels.

And the “cup of tea for Sara’s ill father” turned out to be five days in which an employee cared for the righteous woman’s father, for at least 18 hours. It’s true that this isn’t something we like to deal with. After all, we’re talking about an ill person here, and about the prime minister’s wife, but no one here is above the law for now. And most importantly, if the prime minister’s wife considered it a natural thing for an employee of the residence to care for her father, why did she have to hide it instead of explicitly admitting that she did it?

Bibi, who could have been the presidents of the United States, kindly agreed to downgrade himself and settle for Israel. So do you actually expect his family to pay for its own expenses? (Photo: Shaul Golan)

 

Sara Netanyahu could have easily avoided such a shameful indictment, if only she had been willing to put her hand in the family pocket—which there is no reason to pity, by the way. It really isn’t poor.

She wouldn’t have even had to pay the entire sum. Exceptional gestures were offered and promised. All she had to do was to agree to pay a reasonable sum.

But why would the Netanyahu family, which is doing the State of Israel a big favor by agreeing to rule us, put its hand into its private pocket?

Why, Bibi could have been a huge tycoon or, alternatively, the president of the United States. Israel isn’t worth his time or energy. He kindly agreed to downgrade himself and settle for Israel. So you expect us to pay for our expenses from our own pocket?

Sara Netanyahu chose the disgrace of an indictment over logic. She chose to expose her pettiness and stinginess over common sense. We would have expected her to settle the issue as quickly as possible, to pay and remove the issue from the agenda. If not for her, then out of respect for the prime minister. But the urge is so strong, the traits are so obsessive, that they control her.

There is a bright side, however, in this whole business: Despite the long time that has passed, the delays and the holdups, Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit has proved that he is not afraid of the Netanyahu family. And this comes as bad news for the prime minister with all his investigations.

On the other hand, there are those who say that he may be indicting Sara to let Netanyahu off the hook in the future.

Who knows?

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Why the Eurovision belongs in Tel Aviv

Britain, 1997. The culture secretary convenes a press conference. The kingdom recently won the Eurovision Song Contest and the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) plans to host next year’s competition Birmingham, the second largest city in the country.

The culture secretary is unhappy with the decision and slams it with raging fury. “London!” she screams, although she isn’t even responsible for public broadcasting. “Our eternal capital! The city that survived the horrible blitz during World War II! Our beloved city, which was founded in 43 AD, won’t host the Eurovision? What’s the point of the BBC if we can’t control it?”

The event I just described never happened, of course. The 1998 Eurovision Song Contest was held in Birmingham, and not a single British politician had anything to say about it.

Eurovision winner Netta Barzilai (Photo: AFP)

No one raised an eyebrow when Germany decided to host the 2011 Eurovision Song Contest in the city of Düsseldorf. In fact, Germany hosted the Eurovision three times, and it was never in Berlin or in Bonn, the former capital of West Germany.

Not a single Swedish citizen was offended when Sweden, which has won the Eurovision seven times so far, hosted the event in the city of Malmö (twice) or in Gothenburg.

The competition has never taken place in Bern, the capital city of Switzerland, although the country won the contest three times.

Ireland went as far as hosting the 1993 Eurovision in the remote town of Millstreet. Not a single Irish person saw it as an offense to the capital city of Dublin or to the Irish people’s historical right to the eternal city of Dublin.

In the State of Israel, however, things look different. Every event, from a friendly soccer match to the European song contest, takes on a political meaning and is perceived as an opportunity to prove to the world that we own Jerusalem and that there is an unshakable connection between the Jewish people and the holy city.

Unfortunately, the world isn’t very impressed, and this insistence is usually perceived as pathetic and even ridiculous. The Europeans know what any freshman psychology major knows: Our Jerusalem complex points to insecurity more than anything else.

The Eurovision has been hosted in Jerusalem twice, at a time when politicians were more careful about what they said and when the crazy attempt to make headlines—even if it harms the general interest—wasn’t as common as it is today.

In 1979 and in 1999, the Eurovision was more modest: There were no semi-finals, the delegations landed here a week before the contest rather than two weeks, and the number of fans that arrived was much lower. Then, like today, most of the tourists who arrived belonged to the LGBT community. And I find this point significant in determining the identity of the hosting city.

Tel Aviv Pride Parade (Photo: Reuters)

Tel Aviv has successfully branded itself as a hot tourism destination for gay people, and its Pride Parade has gained an international reputation. Imagine the wonderful PR Israel will receive if thousands of tourists and journalists are exposed to the Pride Parade, to the community’s centers, to the fact that the entire city is decorated with rainbow flags and to the wonderful tolerance.

But this isn’t the only reason Tel Aviv is more suitable for hosting the Eurovision: The city has a much more dominant culinary scene than Jerusalem, an unstoppable nightlife, certain transportation options on Shabbat (at least it has “sherut” taxis) and many culture and art events. Tel Aviv is sexy, cheeky and progressive. Tel Aviv and the Eurovision are a perfect match.

That doesn’t mean that hosting the Eurovision in Tel Aviv will completely conceal Jerusalem, Heaven forbid. Jerusalem can definitely be integrated into the broadcasts, in the artistic program between the songs and the voting stage or in the clips screened between the songs.

While the events, cocktails and parties are usually held in the hosting city, I’m sure no one will object if some of them are moved to the Israel Museum or to the Tower of David, for example. If Culture Minister Miri Regev makes an exception and avoids infiltrating the event and insisting on shaking hands with the Estonian singer, for example, the events in Jerusalem will go ahead peacefully without any boycotts.

And let’s not forget the Haredi parties’ threats and their demand to avoid a desecration of Shabbat in Jerusalem. In 1999, the general rehearsal was held without an audience, although tickets were sold beforehand, due to a Haredi ultimatum, and that created a major scandal. This time, the Europeans have made it clear that the trick of holding a rehearsal without an audience won’t work. The Haredi threats are annoying and insolent, and they clearly don’t own Jerusalem, but this time their desires match the general interest.

The Eurovision’s location is not a political question. Even those who are against any compromise in Jerusalem and those who believe it’s possible and necessary to reach a political solution in the city, must admit that Tel Aviv is Israel’s economic and cultural capital and is seen in a much more positive light in the world than Jerusalem.

Let’s hope that the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, which has so far acted quietly and sensibly, will succeed in warding off the political pressures, led by the unstoppable meddling of the Miri Regev. See you in Tel Aviv?

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Tuesday night's battle a major step towards a war in Gaza

Although the IDF has recorded a drop in the number of incendiary kites and balloons dispatched from Gaza in the past two days, the relatively new aerial nuisance has likely brought the next operation in the strip closer.

The army has no intention of changing the new policy it adopted this week, that fires caused by launching incendiary kites and balloons into the Gaza border communities will lead to airstrikes against terror targets in the strip.

Forest near Kibbutz Be'eri burned by incendiary kites (Photo: EPA)

The IDF's policy will continue despite the new equation Hamas tried to present on Tuesday night, that it would respond to every IDF strike with immediate rocket and mortar shell barrages at Israeli territory.

In recent days, the IDF has detected a drop in the number of fire-sparking kites, from 20 to 30 incendiary kites and balloons launched into Israel last week to four or five in the past two days—a possible indication that Hamas has been deterred from continuing the activity that has inflicted serious financial damage on Gaza vicinity farmers and affected the state of mind of the western Negev residents.

(Photo: EPA)

Military officials believe the range of possibilities in the exchange of blows between the two sides was narrowed down Tuesday night, bringing the next IDF operation in the Gaza Strip closer. Hamas isn't expected to back down from the new fire equation it is trying to create, but if it keeps launching the incendiary kites from its observation posts on the border on a daily basis, the IDF will respond with airstrikes which will lead to rocket barrages and pave the way to a war.

Most of the 45 rockets and mortar shells fired on Tuesday night were launched by Hamas in a controlled manner. Few were launched by Islamic Jihad members as part of the coordination and cooperation between the two major terror organizations in the strip.

Damage caused by rocket in a Gaza vicinity community (Photo: Reuters)

An evaluation of the situation by the Southern Command before the latest airstrike in the strip took the possibility of immediate rocket fire into consideration, and the Air Force was prepared for two additional airstrikes in the middle of the night and early Wednesday. A total of 25 targets were attacked, including military posts, underground training facilities and arms depots. At the moment, there are no preparations for a military operation in the foreseeable future, and routine life in the Gaza vicinity communities continues. The forces on the ground likely won't be reinforced this weekend as they were in recent weeks, during the violent protests on the border fence which were attended by thousands of Palestinians.

(Photo: AP)

Nevertheless, IDF officials realize that what happened Tuesday night was another major step towards a military conflict, although neither side is interested in a war at this stage. Meanwhile, the defense establishment's efforts to come up with a technological solution to the incendiary kites are continuing in full speed. Hamas, for its part, is expected to keep launching the kites after failing to break the status quo vis-à-vis Israel in recent months.

IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot vowed Wednesday afternoon to return security to the residents of the south after Tuesday night's rocket barrages.

"The IDF is working around the clock with the initiative and strength our enemies know well. We will continue targeting those who seek to harm us, and return the security to the residents of the south," Eisenkot said at an officers' course graduation ceremony.

"I'm convinced we will achieve this with wisdom, determination and soon," he added.

 

(Photo: EPA)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also speaking at the ceremony, expressed his support of the IDF chief and the army. "Gadi, the entire nation is behind you and behind IDF soldiers," he said.

He described the volatile situation in the south. "We have a blessed peace with Egypt and Jordan that lasts despite the storms over time, but we're seeing on several fronts enemies who attack us or try to attack us," the prime minister noted.

"I do not intend to go into detail about what we are planning vis-à-vis Gaza. The intensity will be stepped up as necessary. We are prepared for any scenario and our enemies would do well to understand this—now," Netanyahu warned.

(Photo: EPA)

Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman had a message to Hamas: "For what happened yesterday, I have only (four) words for Hamas: It was a mistake."

"We're still surrounded by hatred and cruel enemies. In the Gaza Strip we're facing Hamas and Islamic Jihad, in Sinai there's ISIS, Hezbollah is on the Lebanese border, and al-Qaeda is on the Syrian border. And behind all of them is Iran," Lieberman added.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri responded to Lieberman, writing: "Do not misunderstand our patience."

(Photo: EPA)

Earlier Wednesday, Hamas and Islamic Jihad's military wings claimed responsibility for attacking seven Israeli posts overnight in response to "the ongoing Zionist aggression."

"We stress the equation of 'bombing in response to bombing,' and we will not allow the enemy to force aggressive equations against our people and the resistance," a joint press release from the two terror groups said.

"The Israeli leadership bears full responsibility to any aggression and will pay the price for that. All attempts to break the popular Palestinian protest will not succeed," the statement continued.

"Our preparedness and our quick and coordinated response are proof that we are doing what we say we would," Hamas and Islamic Jihad concluded.

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Hamas’ new equation: Rockets in response to every IDF strike

The IDF has detected that the massive barrages of 45 rockets and mortar shells fired at the Gaza border communities on Tuesday night was carried out by members of Hamas’ military wing as a new policy adopted by the terror organization.

According to this policy, which wasn’t even adopted in the years before Operation Protective Edge, Hamas attacks the Gaza vicinity communities with rockets during or immediately after any Israel Air Force strike on its targets in the strip.

An IAF strike in Gaza, Tuesday night

Hamas operatives began firing rockets on Tuesday night after the IAF bombed a Hamas military facility in Rafah in response to incendiary kites dispatched from the strip, which sparked major fires in Gaza vicinity fields. The operatives thereby proved that a similar incident earlier this week, in which three rockets were fired at Israel, was intentional rather than random.

The targets attacked by Israel on Tuesday night included Hamas posts, warehouses, offices and an underground training facility for the organization’s operatives.

Defense establishment officials believe that Hamas is operating under the perception that Israel isn’t interested in a war in the south right now, four years after Operation Protective Edge. As a result, the organization is allowing itself to adopt what it considers an unprecedented and bold retaliation policy.

Fire sparked by incendiary kites in the Or HaNer area in southern Israel

Nevertheless, the Hamas rocket fire is still limited to the Gaza vicinity areas and is only carried out at night. Israeli officials believe that Hamas’ desire to change the rules of the game is driven by its frustration in light of its failures in recent months and the measured exacerbation of the Israeli policy against the incendiary kites.

About two weeks ago, the IAF started firing warning shots among kite flyers. In the past few days, it begun attacking empty vehicles of senior members of Hamas’ kite unit, kite-flying infrastructures, and finally Hamas targets as well.

The organization is also frustrated by the fact that the border with Israel wasn’t breached as planned since the beginning of the fence protests in late March, while more than 165 Palestinians—mostly Hamas operatives, according to the IDF—were killed in the clashes and some 100 targets in the strip were attacked by the IAF, affecting the organization’s military power.

Damage caused by Hamas rocket fire in a Gaza border community (Photo: Eshkol Security)

Israel has been conveying indirect messages to Hamas that its perception concerning the Israeli policy is wrong, and that the IDF will step up its attacks even at the cost of a deterioration if the current situation continues, despite the political echelon’s desire “not to stop playing by the rules” vis-à-vis Gaza.

“At this time, there is more pressure from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem residents concerning the fires caused by the incendiary kites than from Gaza vicinity residents,” a security source told Ynet on Tuesday. “We are making a lot of progress in the technological efforts to find a solution to the kite phenomenon, but even in the future there will be no hermetic solution.

“Ministers’ statements that kite flyers must be attacked directly are intended primarily for public opinion purposes and have nothing to do with security. As far as Hamas is concerned, the use of the kite phenomenon is a win-win situation to raise awareness to their issue in the global public opinion.”

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The Iranian connection: Gonen Segev’s narcissism and potential damage

Dr. Gonen Segev has two main qualities, which characterize many Israelis. One of them is that he always wanted to make a lot of money quickly and effortlessly.

The second quality complements the first one: He is convinced that he is capable of fooling the entire world, all the time, thanks to his exceptional cognitive abilities and personal charm.

 

Gonen Segev is a narcissist who is convinced that he enjoys a mental or some other kind of supremacy which others simply can’t resist, causing them to fall into his trap. It’s reasonable to assume that even when he allegedly worked at the Iranian intelligence’s service, he believed he was misleading them and didn’t feel they were getting him into trouble.

A Hezbollah agent detected Segev’s potential to cross the lines (Photo: Atta Awisat)

But Gonen Segev has a third quality, which psychologists refer to as “a lack of superego”: He doesn’t have the mental system most of have, which tells us when it’s wrong to cross the moral or legal line and abandon the acceptable social rules. Because of the lack of superego, Segev repeatedly got into trouble with the law. He saw drugs, fraud—and spying against his country—legitimate means to fulfill his dream to make a huge profit.

The gap between his real mental abilities and the way he saw himself could immediately be detected according to his amateurish, and even foolish, conduct in the criminal affairs he got himself involved in and repeatedly got caught—quite easily—by the police and Shin Bet. That applies to enforcement authorities abroad as well, like the Dutch police, Nigeria’s security services, etc.

Segev at a clinic in Nigeria (Photo: hotel.ng place)

Gonen Segev’s affair with the Iranians didn’t begin in 2012. In the 1990s, he was spotted by Kais Obeid, an Israeli Arab from Tayibe who worked at Hezbollah’s service and saw the former national infrastructure minister as potential prey. It was before Segev had faked the diplomatic passport and before he had gotten involved in drug deals and credit card fraud. The Hezbollah agent detected Segev’s potential to cross the lines before anyone else.

As first revealed by Ynet, Obeid arranged profitable deals for Segev with different people in the Persian Gulf, who likely worked at Hezbollah and Iran’s service. The goal was to eventually kidnap Segev and trade him for Hezbollah members. At the end of the day, the plan wasn’t executed because Hezbollah found a different Israeli who was less cautious, Elhanan Tennenbaum. He was kidnapped and transferred from the Persian Gulf to Beirut while engaging in a drug deal.

But the Iranians were already familiar with Gonen Segev, and when he reappeared in their area of interest, during his stay in Nigeria, they rushed to exploit his services.

So how helpful was Segev to the Iranians? Probably not much. But although more than 20 years had passed since he served as minister of energy and national infrastrctures, he was very familiar with sensitive facilities in Israel—not just in the field of energy but also in the IDF—as well as several systems the common citizen is unaware of.

(Photo: hotel.ng place)

He could have made the map of strategic targets prepared by the Iranians for their missiles more accurate. He could have also pointed to population centers and Israeli habits in a way that could significantly improve the Iranian bank of targets and influence the attack methods and their timing. From an Israeli perspective, the combination between the Google Maps app and Gonen Segev is extremely negative.

The second benefit the Iranians could have gained from Segev were his extensive ties. He knew people in the past and in the present in the field of energy and national infrastrctures and even former IDF officers like Oren Shachor, who was a senior intelligence official and a friend of his.

Gonen Segev in Nigeria

He could have opened quite a few doors for the Iranians, mainly among former senior officials in the public service, in the IDF and in the other security services. Iranian agents or people operating at Iran’s service could have entered that door with his help—in other words, they could have established ties with the Israelis, and establish ties with other Israelis with their help, and so on and so forth, without anyone knowing that these people work for Iran or are indirectly connected to the Iranian intelligence.

Gonen Segev likely didn’t cause great damage to the State of Israel’s security, but the fact that a man like him—who falls under the definition of “salt of the earth” according to every Israeli standard—was allegedly tempted to betray the country raises a lot of questions and doubts. He isn’t the first person to do it, but he is the most senior official in the Israeli government establishment who aided Israel’s most bitter enemy. Are there others like him?

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Photojournalists don’t create reality, they document it

I always dreamed of becoming a photojournalist. From a young age, I knew I wanted to take pictures that would turn the viewer’s stomach, that would give him or her something to think about.

I have been fulfilling my dream for the past 10 years as a photojournalist. And let me tell you: It’s a difficult and ungrateful profession. I’m not just talking about the technology that has flooded the market with infant camera holders or those who pull out their phones at the opportune moment and think they know the profession, but also about security guards, policemen and soldiers who tell you what you can or can’t take pictures of, and where you can or can’t stand, although they are unfamiliar with the law either.

Palestinians clash with IDF soldiers in the territories. Constant friction (Photo: Reuters)

On Sunday, I heard that Knesset Member Robert Ilatov initiated a law seeking to bar the filming and photography of IDF soldiers. I don’t think he thought this law through. Personally, I find it completely illogical.

First of all, if it is forbidden to film soldiers, what will they do with the security cameras that regularly document them? Will they be put in prison too? What’s the difference between a person holding a camera and a camera hanging on the wall? After all, they both document what they see.

Second, if it is forbidden to take pictures of soldiers on duty, it shouldn’t be limited to violations of the law in the territories. We photojournalists won’t take pictures of them receiving certificates of merit on Independence Day, participating in Memorial Day ceremonies or engaging in activities which the IDF spokesperson has been inviting us to film and has been encouraging us to document. Why should you only know about what the state conveniently allows you to see?

The security forces, including IDF soldiers, operate in the heart of a Palestinian civilian population, creating constant friction. We photojournalists film what is happening from a reasonable distance without getting in their way. We are not part of Breaking the Silence, B’Tselem or Im Tirtzu. We don’t care about those organizations. What we care about is documenting reality as it is.

 

The Elor Azaria incident had to be documented and the authorities had to be the ones to decide if he had acted lawfully or not

 

I’m far from being left-wing, but my personal views are completely irrelevant to my work. The only relevant thing is to provide decent coverage of the facts as they are, without beautifying the situation and without faking it.

It is my opinion, therefore, that the Elor Azaria incident had to be documented and that the authorities had to be the ones to decide if he had acted lawfully or not. Just like in the Bus 300 affair—documentation doesn’t create a reality, it merely leads to its clarification.

A world without real, free and neutral journalism is an insane world. Let’s protect our country from the darkness, because “I have no other country, even if my land is aflame.”

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Settlers wound 11 policemen, but right-wing ministers remain silent

Once again, the Right has proved that its love for the IDF and security forces is conditional.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked and Education Minister Naftali Bennett were unfazed by the fact that 11 policemen were hurt in the evacuation of an illegal outpost on Saturday night and Sunday morning.

The prime minister and the right-wing ministers’ silence over the serious incident that took place near Tapuach in the Samaria region is deafening and troubling, and this isn’t the first time it happens.

Netanyahu, Shaked and the clashes in Tapuach. A deafening silence (Photos: Alex Kolomoisky, Ehud Amiton/TPS, Reuters)

I feel so sorry for the policemen. If only they had been attacked by Arabs rather than by Jewish settlers, everything could have been so different. If it were Arabs, the orders would have allowed the use of counterviolence and even live fire, the policemen would have been required to use counterviolence and attack the rioters, and the government would have stood by them and awarded citations to those fighting terror.

But when the rioter is a settler, the violence is tolerable, the stone is no longer considered a weapon, and you have to know how to contain, show understanding and forgiveness.

Justice Minister Shaked, who sponsored legislation to ramp up punishments for stone throwers, is silent. Internal Security Minister Erdan, who rushes to slam and point an accusing finger at the Arab sector following every incident, is silent. Defense Minister Lieberman, who made his political capital from his incitement against Arab Knesset members, is silent. And Prime Minister Netanyahu has already learned that he shouldn’t get into trouble with the hard core of the right-wing support base. The Tapuach settlers are immune.

One doesn’t have to go too far to understand the extent of hypocrisy here. Only seven months ago, the whole country was shocked by the documentation of teenager Ahed Tamimi confronting and slapping two soldiers. The incident was met with endless condemnations from the Right, and although she didn’t physically wound anyone, the demand for her arrest was loud and clear.

Ahed Tamimi. In today's Israel, a Palestinian teen will rot in prison for eight months, while an Israeli teen will be reprimanded (Photo: Ohad Zwigenberg)

I wonder what will happen to the dozens of “Ahed Tamimi” settlers who physically resisted the outpost’s evacuation on Saturday night. It’s safe to assume that none of them will spend more than a few hours in detention, and that the increased penalty for stone throwers won’t apply to them.

In today’s Israel, a Palestinian teen who didn’t wound a soldier will rot in prison for eight months, while an Israeli teen will be reprimanded and get a note to take home to his parents.

The police officers and soldiers should be praised for their restraint: Shooting is only allowed in a life-threatening situation, and only moderate force should be used in the dispersal of protesters. But this policy is required not only when the rioters are settlers with connections in the corridors of power. Everyone deserves fair treatment during protests and disturbances, including Arab protestors.

Yariv Oppenheimer is a board member and former director of Peace Now.

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Instead of preparing for post-Abbas era, Israel is kicking PA’s weakening body

Several months ago, I visited the former countries of Yugoslavia to try to understand what had led to the collapse of the idea of one state with many nationalities living in it.

Yugoslavia was a relatively successful country, with the ethos of a Slavic, Pravoslav, Catholic and Muslim unification. It collapsed into itself in a quick and violent manner which the world had never imagined, and brought to Europe—for the first time since World War II—a genocide committed by the Serbs against Muslim Bosnians.

The series of reports I filmed for Channel 10 News from there generated responses from all sides of the political spectrum. One of them came from Knesset Member Eitan Cabel (Zionist Union), who asked to talk and told me he was working on a peace plan. From my experience, Cabel is a politician with good intentions, and I was happy to discuss my impressions from Yugoslavia with him.

The Abbas era will soon be over, but Israel isn’t doing anything about it (Photo: AP)

When I saw a recent op-ed he published about his peace plan, which includes an annexation in Area C, I was forced to reach the conclusion that he had not accepted, or had not understood, the bottom line.

And this is the bottom line: The senior Serbian officials I spoke to, all self-proclaimed friends of Israel, including Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, issued a serious warning against a reality of mixing different ethnic-religious populations.

Vučić, who has been a right-wing nationalist most of his years in politics and a friend of politicians from the Israeli Right, begged the Israelis to reach a diplomatic solution and divide the land. He wasn’t the only one. Again, I stress, these are people who are known to be pro-Israel. Cabel presented a plan seeking to embrace and turn at least 200,000 Palestinians into Israeli citizens, and to create a Balkan territorial reality.

Cabel should be given credit, however, for sparking some kind of debate. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was discharged from hospital recently, but his era will soon be over, and the clear sign of that isn’t his health but rather his recent anti-Semitic speech. There haven’t been free elections in the Palestinian Authority for years, and the historic confrontation between the two movements—Hamas and Fatah—has never been more dangerous. Official Israel isn’t dealing with the new era about to arrive. It is mainly addicted to kicking the PA’s weakening body.

Let’s imagine that the world came over to Israel today and said: The West Bank won’t get a Palestinian state at this stage, but rather a limited autonomy. It will mainly control the Palestinian city centers, with civilian and police authorities only. It won’t have an army or border crossings, and it will establish a police and intelligence force that will cooperate, most of the time, in the war on terror. At the same time, the IDF will have an almost free hand in all of Judea and Samaria, and Israel will keep 60 percent of the territory, including the Jordan Valley, and of course the settlement blocs where it will be able to build. The security situation will be far from perfect, but much better than in most of the years since the first intifada in 1987. As for the permanent solution, we’ll see what happens later on, and the Palestinians' economic situation will improve considerably in any event.

If the reality on the ground is pretty good as far as the current government is concerned, what is it doing to maintain it? (Photo: Marc Israel Sellem)

Let’s assume that the world offered Israel this arrangement today. Sounds pretty good, right? Well, that has been the situation in the West Bank for the past decade. That’s the situation that has been created here. It has to do with a lot of components: With the defeat of the second intifada; with the rise to power of Abbas, who kept the PA away from terror; with the Palestinian force build by the Barack Obama and George W. Bush administrations; with the Palestinian split; etc. Unintentionally, the situation created in the West Bank serves Israel, at least in the short run. In the long run, many people warn, it will lead to a binational state. A Yugoslavian state, which will mean the end of the Jewish and democratic state.

Let’s cancel this argument for a moment. Let’s do the unbelievable and put it aside for a short moment. If we put it aside, there is only one question: Why isn’t the Netanyahu government doing everything in its power to maintain the current situation, which serves it in almost every sense? If the goal is a stalemate and status quo, if the desire is to keep pulling an Oslo-style Palestinian autonomy to eternity, Israel should warmly help the PA in every possible way, and even bolster it.

It’s pretty clear: If the reality on the ground is very bad, Israel should change it, and then the question is how. If the reality is pretty good as far as the current government is concerned, what is it doing to maintain it? These are critical questions ahead of the expected changes in the Palestinian society.

Nadav Eyal is Channel 10's chief international correspondent.

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13 million declared anti-Semites in Germany

Let’s talk a bit about today’s Germany. Nearly 83 million residents, one of Europe's biggest countries. Between 100,000 to 200,000 Jews, most of whom arrived from Russia several decades ago after the German authorities invited them and helped with their absorption.

“Germany needs a Jewish population,” the authorities announced at the time. By the way, some of the “invitees” weren’t even Jews or weren’t Jewish according to Halacha. In Russia, after all, there was no problem purchasing certificates and permits of all kinds. I remember cases in which the husband received financial support from the Jewish community, which included some 28,000 people at the time, and his wife received aid from the Catholic Caritas organization.

Skullcap march against anti-Semitism held in Berlin in April (Photo: EPA)

And now to anti-Semitism. In a recent survey, 16 percent of the population—about 13 million people—declared they didn’t like Jews, to say the least. About 70 percent of the respondents further stated that they were strongly against the oppression of Palestinians by Israel.

There’s no surprise here, if we know, for example, that two Muslim rappers—Kollegah and Farid Bang—recently won the Echo award, a sort of “Oscar” for the country’s most popular artists. The two, who always perform in front of sold-out crowds, often ridicule Holocaust survivors and their songs are littered with anti-Semitic expressions. After their win stirred a public row, the prize was cancelled, but the committee that delivers the award found no fault in their selection.

And if a leading newspaper like Süddeutsche Zeitung publishes a cartoon of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with all the “characteristics” that Joseph Goebbels gave the Jews (a long, crooked nose and big ears), and the paper’s editors decide to bid farewell to the cartoonist only after an uproar from Jewish circles, that says enough too.

And now to Dr. Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, who recently advised observant Jews not to wear a skullcap in big cities to protect themselves. I’m having trouble accepting the arguments presented by “the No. 1 Jew in Germany” to Itay Mashiach, Yedioth Ahronoth correspondent in Berlin. His explanations prove that he fails to understand the situation or doesn’t want to understand it.

Anti-Semitic German rapper duo Kollegah and Farid Bang (Photo: AFP)

On the one hand, Schuster says Germany’s Jews are in no danger and have no reason to consider leaving. On the other hand, when he is asked whether the fact that anti-Semitism is still present in Germany in 2018—despite politicians’ efforts—isn’t evidence of the failure of Jewish life in Germany, Schuster replies: “Definitely not a failure. There has always been hostility towards Jews among 20 percent of the population, even when the community was much smaller. But we must also remember the opposite conclusion, that 80 percent are not prejudiced against Jews.”

That’s an argument I have yet to hear. It’s like saying that in a certain country “only 20 percent are criminals.”

Addressing the immigration of Jews from Germany, Schuster said: “Thank God, there is no such danger.” Thank God?

Schuster also argued that anti-Semitic manifestations were more common in big cities like Berlin, Cologne and Munich, but that the situation was different in the small cities. As someone who has visited hundreds of school classrooms and addressed thousands of students, mainly in Germany’s small cities, I would like to reveal to Dr. Schuster that he is wrong and that the truth is actually the opposite. Berlin and Cologne don’t represent Germany. The small cities do, and anti-Semitism is much more common there.

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Israeli Right rolling in foreign money

Impertinence has no limits. Matan Peleg, CEO of extreme right-wing organization Im Tirtzu has attacked human rights and peace advocacy NGOs in Israel in a recent op-ed, arguing they are funded mostly by foreign donors. Peleg has no scruples making this statement although the organization he heads is almost entirely funded by foreign donations.

Worse still, whereas left-wing civic society organizations abide by complete transparency standards in their reporting on their funding sources, the new organizations of Israel’s extreme right, of which Im Tirtzu is a typical example, systematically conceal their financial sources by resorting to donor confidentiality or masking those sources with anonymous overseas shell foundations.

Here are the numbers: From 2010 to 2016, 85 percent of the donations, or NIS 13 million, received by Im Tirtzu originated in foreign sources. The lion share of this amount came from covert origins: it has been transferred to US shell foundations, which do not disclose the identity of their donors. However, Im Tirtzu is not alone: NGO Monitor, another right-wing organization cited by Peleg in his article, received 89 percent of its donations–NIS 23 million–from sources outside Israel.

Im Tirtzu protest (Photo: Motti Kimchi)

Peleg’s main argument is that while European governments support human rights organizations in Israel, Europe itself objects to foreign influence on its politics. As support for his argument, he quotes from a report of the European People’s Party (EPP) on Russian intervention in European politics.

I have read the comprehensive, well-written report only to discover that it states that Russia’s impact on European organizations is not funded by transparent, official government money. Rather, it is financed by undisclosed donations from hidden channels. In other words, Europe objects to the same clandestine funding facilities from which Peleg and his colleagues in the nationalist right benefit.

Indeed, many human rights organizations are supported by the US Administration, the EU and European governments. This support is part of Western nations’ policy of advocating human rights organizations. However, state support, be it American or European, abides by very high standards of transparency, unlike the foreign private sources which Peleg and his auxiliaries suck dry.

Lamentably, a lacuna in Israeli legislation allows these organizations to receive foreign funding from undisclosed entities with no duty of transparent reporting. As a result, the Israeli public is left in the dark regarding the interests and the stakeholders behind NGOs and organizations that keep poisoning the social discourse in Israel with alarming efficacy and with deep pocket funding.

In fact, in the current non-transparent situation, and with extreme right-wing NGOs refusing to name their supporters, it is even possible that Russian intervention, of the type identified by the EPP report, exists in Israel too.

This unbearable situation must be rectified. The Front for the Protection of Democracy has drafted a bill, which will restrict the confidentiality on donors’ identity and their donations only to rare and specific cases, and prevent Israeli and international corporations, which do not disclose their sources, from funding NGOs in Israel.

We must stop the black money changing hands in Israel’s political arena. We expect anyone who believes in transparency and in our clean democratic practices to support our bill.

Uri Zaki is founder of the Front, an organization dedicated to eliminating black money from Israeli politics.

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Singapore summit won’t bring peace on earth, but it does prevent a war

US President Donald Trump appeared very confident in the press conference he convened Tuesday at the end of the historic Singapore summit. More importantly, he seemed genuinely proud of what he had achieved.

His self-confidence was apparent even when he implied there was no guarantee that the understandings he had reached with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would actually be implemented. “I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘Hey, I was wrong,’” he said.

That’s the way a sober, realistic person talks, and Trump hasn’t been perceived as such a person so far. He truly believes that the deal he concocted will be executed, or at least most of it. Why is he so confident that his joint statement with Kim won’t remain on paper?

Trump and Kim in Singapore (Photo: Reuters)

The main reason is the long preparation talks between the parties, which led to a document that offers an indirect response in principle to the main problems preventing peace and stability in the Korean peninsula in particular and in Eastern Asia in general.

This fact is important not only for the region’s residents but for the entire world as well, as the explosive situation of the past 70 years between the Koreas, and between them and Japan, is a real threat to world peace—especially since last year, when it turned out that North Korea has nuclear and missile abilities that threaten not only its neighbors but also the United States and China.

While agreements in principle aren’t practical, the fact that the parties made trust-building moves even before the historic summit in Singapore gives us a reason to believe that both of them—including North Korea, which deceived the US in the past—are seriously intending on performing a strategic and reliable change in their relations.

The Singapore summit (Video: Reuters)    (צילום: רויטרס)

We mustn’t have any illusions. This isn’t about an improvement of the human rights situation and the humanitarian situation in North Korea. This isn’t about peace on earth either. This is about an agreement—in principle for now—to relieve tensions and prevent a nuclear war. Some will say it isn’t much and that it’s still far from actual fulfillment, but it’s much better than the situation on the eve of the summit, when North Korea and the US threatened each other with war.

Besides, experience shows that just like there is a “dynamic of escalation” which leads to war although the parties aren’t interested in war, there is also a “dynamic of de-escalation” which starts with small steps and gains momentum if they succeed.

Based on the Singapore statement, and mainly on Trump’s press conference, we can see that both sides are already offering trust-building gestures to each other.

Kim, for example, “gave” Trump during the talks—apparently without the negotiation teams discussing it earlier—the demolition of the test stand for intercontinental ballistic missiles and agreed to recover and return the remains of American POWs and MIAs from the Korean War which ended in 1953, in addition to the other gestures that North Korea has already offered South Korea and the United States in the past few months.

The Korean War in the early 1950s (Photo: AP)

Trump rewarded Kim by halting joint military exercises with South Korea on South Korean territory. These annual war games have irritated the North Korean leaders throughout the generations and served as a regular source of tensions and even exchanges of fire between the two Koreas. The American president also froze some of the sanctions he imposed on North Korea last year and said he avoided imposing another 300 sanctions that had been planned. It’s clear, however, that Trump arrived at the summit with a fear of being perceived as a sucker, which is why he didn’t announce a pullout—not even a partial one—of the 32,000 soldiers stationed on North Korean territory and didn’t announce that the sanctions would be lifted.

(Photo: Reuters)

The American and South Korea negotiation teams deserve a compliment for working for months on a balanced package of trust-building steps and on the agenda of the negotiations which will now begin on North Korea’s demilitarization of nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles threatening the US. This issue is the reason Trump essentially legitimized North Korea’s totalitarian oppressive regime. The Singapore meeting was a recognition of this regime, and the reward is supposed to be the denuclearization of one of the least predictable and stable countries in the world. This is the equation presented by Trump, and this time we can believe him.

Trump's press conference

Within two or three months, we will likely be able to know whether the process launched on Tuesday will lead to practical results. Trump promised that the practical negotiations would begin as early as next week. They will be led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who successfully tailored the understandings that led to this summit. National Security Advisor John Bolton will be involved in the negotiations too. It is still unclear who will lead the negotiations on behalf of North Korea, but we will likely find out in the coming days. In this context, it’s important to mention one of Trump’s quick comments during the press conference, that the North Korean leader faced resistance within his regime to the strategic move he was making and might want a few more days to take care of his internal rivals and then declare who will negotiate with the US.

The negotiations will focus on four main issues:

1. The first issue, the denuclearization of North Korea, is the most complicated issue, as it is a technically and scientifically complex process which could last months and maybe even a year or two. This process requires strict supervision and verification to prevent North Korea from deceiving the US, as it has done before. Trump implied that this supervision would be carried out by teams of American and international experts, scientists and engineers. He was likely referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which will now have to double if nor triple its number of employees. The entire process depends on the small details of this issue.

Ballistic missiles in a military display in North Korea (Photo: AP)

By the way, the joint statement doesn’t mention the ballistic missiles. This is where Trump resembles former President Barack Obama, who accepted the Iranian demand to exclude the development and production of ballistic missiles from the nuclear agreement with the world powers. It seems that the North Koreans are also refusing to disarm of their ballistic missiles, which is why they refused to include them in the Singapore statement.

 

The shutdown of North Korea’s ballistic missile test site is likely aimed at serving as a fig leaf in this matter. We’ll see if Trump insists on this issue later on in the process. The ayatollahs in Tehran are, naturally, monitoring the issue of North Korea’s ballistic missiles with a great amount of interest. If Trump gets North Korea to stop developing and producing intercontinental ballistic missiles, it will serve as a milestone both for Iran and for European Union countries, which are trying to improve the nuclear agreement with Iran. This is, therefore, an issue Israel is particularly concerned about.

2. The second issue in the negotiations is the establishment of new relations—in other words, peace between the United States and North Korea. The Korean War ended in 1953 with armistice agreements that prevented any diplomatic or other relations between the two countries. The negotiations for peace, in which the US will officially recognize North Korea, appear to be in an advanced stage.

(Photo: EPA)

3. The third issue is peace between North Korea and South Korea. The two countries have already signed a series of agreements aimed at leading to normalization between them. All the agreements since the 1950s have collapsed one way or another, but now there is an opportunity to end the war in this aspect too. According to the wording of the statement, the achievement of normalization and peace between the Koreas—and between the US and North Korea—appears to be contingent on the dismantlement of the North Korean nuclear project. 4. The fourth issue is the recovery and return of the POWs and MIAs. There is also a fifth issue, which is completely excluded from the Singapore statement: Human rights and the humanitarian situation in North Korea. After the euphoria in the White Houses and in the US over the meeting and its achievements dies down, this issue will be raised in greater volume and the media won’t leave Trump alone. The American president is right, however, when he estimates that if only part of the agreements achieved in Singapore are implemented, the North Korean people stand to benefit from it too. At least their economic situation will improve.

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