The most anti-Israeli law

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Op-ed: The Nationality Law only serves to erode the Israeliness that should be being promoted in Israeli society. It is morally, historically and practically bankrupt and it shows complete disregard for our Druze brothers who carry Israeli ID cards and who serve loyally when called upon to defend the nation. There is nothing Israeli about the law. The most anti-Israeli law : https://ift.tt/2LTM7TU

No policy, no security

There is something heartbreaking about a country that stops searching for a security leader. Even when the state is so strong, armed and advanced, Israel does not defeat the security paranoia and never asks itself who will answer the Red Phone (hotline with Washington and Moscow) and who won’t and who will handle the civilian matters, the judicial matters, and the economic matter etc.

Netanyahu managed to appropriate for himself the persona of a security man, even without the military decorations on his shoulders. His service in Sayeret Matkal, the intuitive connection with Operation Entebbe and some of his actions as prime minister cemented his status as a responsible adult who makes most Israelis feel secure when he is by the Red Phone. But to what extent does it relate to reality or the facts? That is a separate question.

Riots in Gaza (Photo: AFP)

A glance at the security reality in the last few months points to chaotic frontiers in the north and south. Let’s begin in the south. In the age of security, of all ages, Hamas has managed to challenge Israeli security doctrine. From rockets that have managed to hold most of the country adjacent to protected areas for close to 50 days in Operation Protective Edge to the terror tunnel network that forced the IDF to launch a ground offensive which claimed lives and did not manage to bring about a decisive outcome between a state with F-35s and a paramilitary terror organization. The years of quiet on the southern front was not exploited by the security man in a move that would have removed us from this circle. As we have seen in recent months, Israel does not really have a military answer on anything related to Gaza. On the assumption that there is no way of conducting a war in an area in such close proximity to the population, despite the strength of the IDF, it is impossible to exhaust the military option. This is a game that continues to end in a draw which can only be brought to a decisive conclusion through a diplomatic option. Netanyahu either does not want or cannot lead us to that. There is scarcely a dull moment on the northern front either. Last week, sirens sent residents to the bomb shelters as if we had returned to the 70s, but that frontier is another story altogether. In the age of the security man, Iran has managed to get a foothold on our northern border, while Hezbollah has managed to arm itself with weapons that create a real balance in deterrence power on the Lebanese border. But look at what happens when Netanyahu the statesman speaks with Bibi the security man. On the one hand, the IDF is acting with determination against Iranian arms shipments and bases. On the other hand, Netanyahu is skipping between Putin and Trump, creating understandings, clarifying borders and giving the IDF almost complete freedom in Syria. The meeting between Netanyahu the statesman and the security man, at this time, maintains a stable balance of deterrence which prevents a deterioration despite Israeli activities in the heart of Syria and the sensitive belly of the Iranians.

Fightin in Syria near Israel's northern border (Photo: AFP)

The meshing of diplomatic and military moves creates the feeling that there is a homeowner here who dictates in the majority of moves the terms of the game, who maneuvers between regional leaders, and his enemies do not take the gamble of messing with him. In the south, however, it is difficult to escape the feeling that the one dictating the moves is Hamas. Under the humanitarian limitations which ties the IDF’s hands, a bold and broad diplomatic move is required that will shatter the paradigm of conflict-quiet-conflict.

The decision of Netanyahu and Lieberman not to go for conflict-operation-war in light of recent events is undoubtedly an impressive display of restraint but it is futile as long as it is not dependent on a political alternative.

The residents of the south deserve to finally feel that there is something substantial behind Netanyahu's facade as Mr. Security.

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Chaos on the borders: Israel has lost its deterrence

The government and the IDF's deterrence and containment strategy has reached a dead end. In the south, on the Gaza border, Israel hasn't managed to achieve a stable calm and provide the western Negev residents with a sense of security in almost four months—in fact, since March 30, the day the protests by the border fence began. In the north, Israel is unable to stop Iranian military entrenchment in Syria, just slow it down.

The Iranians and their proxies—despite the blows they suffer several times a week—continue their efforts to turn Syria into an active separate front against Israel, from which precise surface-to-surface and surface-to-sea missiles will be launched and where anti-aircraft systems will be stationed.

All of these will reduce the IAF's freedom of operations and make it difficult for Israel to deal with the thousands of missiles and rockets Hezbollah has accumulated in Lebanon, and that the Iranians are progressively accumulating in Syria. The intense diplomatic dialogue Israel is having with the Russians, and the "kinetic dialogue" (the exchange of fire) with the Syrian army, only make up a partial solution and do not prevent spillover fire.

IDF chief Eisenkot and Prime Minister Netanyahu (Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

The Syrian Sukhoi jet that was shot down this week by the Air Force deters the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but not the Iranians. The events that followed over the next 24 hours—the shooting of rockets from Syria that landed in the Kinneret and the Palestinian sniper fire that wounded a Givati officer on the Gaza border—do a good job of demonstrating the severity of the problem, which can be defined by one word: Chaos. Things have gotten out of hand.

Those who shot and hit the IDF officer on the Gaza border were likely members of what the army refers to as an "errant" Palestinian group. Normally this means extremist Jihadist-Salafist organizations trying to undermine Hamas's rule in the strip. But this time there's reason to believe that much like last Friday—when Staff Sgt. Aviv Levi was shot to death—this was a member of an extremist faction within Hamas's military wing, who made a law unto themselves.

The IDF officer wounded by sniper fire this week (Photo: Haim Horenstein)

What's interesting is that both the errant Salafists and the extremists from within Hamas's ranks are trying, using the attacks on the border, to drag the IDF into another large-scale round of fighting inside the Gaza Strip. The errants hope this would bring the end of Hamas, while the Hamas extremists believe that if the IDF enters the strip, they would be able to cause great losses to Israel and kidnap soldiers to free prisoners.

That must have been the goal of the attack, which started with children being sent to protest by the border fence. When an IDF force showed up, out in the open and exposed, to disperse them, the sniper, who was ready nearby, opened fire at the troops. The IDF will have to reexamine its methods of operation on the border fence, and ensure its soldiers carry out their missions from behind cover.

But this won't solve the problem. There's no calm in the south because Hamas is not interested in calm until it achieves its goals without having to make any significant concessions. Hamas wants money from the Palestinian Authority, electricity and water from Israel, and an open Rafah crossing from Egypt. These are part of the demands it is making.

Israel is willing to provide Hamas with humanitarian aid on the condition it stops the arson terrorism, and even rehabilitate the strip if it returns the bodies of the MIA soldiers from Operation Protective Edge and the two Israeli civilians it is holding. But Hamas is unwilling, which is why it allows the errant factions to operate on a low scale, while at the same time leading incendiary kite and balloon squads. In this way, it maintains the tensions along the border as well as Israel, Egypt and the UN's need to meet its demands.

The economic carrot and military stick system Israel is using on Hamas recently has gone bankrupt, as the residents of the western Negev can attest while Code Red rocket alert sirens send them running to shelters almost every other night. The IDF's retaliatory strikes, even though they very much hurt Hamas, not only don't cause the terror group to stop the incendiary balloons harassment, but they also don't cause Hamas to stop the rockets and gunfire—whether it's done directly by the Gaza rulers or by the errant factions.

Stopping the flow of trucks through the Kerem Shalom crossing is as useful as putting a milk bucket under a bull; and the Egyptians can't influence Hamas either, let alone stop it. The Egyptian and UN envoy Mladenov's efforts to achieve calm fail again and again. It's time we realize we can't expect them to restore the quiet. Every time the IDF delivers a blow to Hamas's military infrastructure, the Hamasniks rush to the head of Egyptian intelligence and to Mladenov, who restrain Israel for them. The opposite effect: the mediators are unable to bring an end to the Gazans' hostile attacks, they can only restrain the Israeli response just as it begins to hurt Hamas and harm it. How convenient this arrangement is to an organization that is trying to keep the flames low to achieve its political and economic goals.

Hamas leader Haniyeh on the Gaza border (Photo: EPA)

This trick works not only in the south, but in the north as well. The Khalid ibn al-Walid Army—which belongs to ISIS and controls the enclave where the borders of Jordan, Syria and Israel meet—is currently under a massive attack by the Assad army and the Shiite militias fighting alongside it. The Syrian ISIS realizes it is about to lose its stronghold to the regime army, just as it did in Daraa and Quneitra, and so it took a measure this week that we know from the Gazan scene—it launched grad rockets at the Kinneret, so Israel would respond by shooting at the regime army, which is attacking ISIS. The Syrian ISIS men on the triple-border area hoped the Israeli response to the rockets they fired as a provocation would stop Assad's men. A perfect imitation of what the errant groups in Gaza are trying to do. But unlike what's happening in Gaza, there are quite a few ISIS targets on the IAF and Artillery Corps' lists; which is why Israeli aircraft attacked the mobile BM21 launcher that fired the grad rockets at Israel.

Just like in a game a pool—I hit the Israeli ball so it in turn hits the Syrian regime's ball, which is about to hit me.

Searching for ISIS rockets shrapnel in the Kinneret (Photo: Avihu Shapira)

If it hadn't been for the operations that do take place, the situation in the north could've been much worse. The IDF manages to disrupt and slow down the Iranian entrenchment, and the violations of sovereignty are limited and do not include terror attacks on the border. Israel is also successful in making the Russians interested in having a dialogue with us.

And yet, all of this is part of a chaotic reality, which contains a lot of details, but the bottom line is all that matters: the IDF and the Israeli government are no longer successful in creating effective deterrence—not in the north and not in the south. The deterrence may not be completely gone, but it has been seriously eroded, in a way that puts the State of Israel in a hopeless situation, with a continuous threat to its sovereignty along its borders, to the safety of its residents who live in these border areas, and to its daily routine.

So what can be done in such a situation? In the south, the dilemma is much more difficult and complex. The IDF can do more than what it has already done by continuing to destroy Hamas's infrastructure and even by hitting its leaders (assassination), but such moves will almost necessarily lead to a long military operations inside the Gaza Strip. At the end of such an operation, we will be facing dilemmas just as complex: bring down the Hamas regime and stay in the strip until a different regime comes in its stead, or pull out of the strip after destroying most of Hamas's military capabilities and returning more or less to the situation we were in before the operation began. Neither option assures long-term quiet for the residents of south Israel.

IDF tank on the Gaza border (Photo: IDF Spokesman's Office)

On the other side is a civilian-economic arrangement that would calm the situation in the strip and Hamas. But those proposing such large-scale economic rehabilitation plans still can't demonstrate just how these plans will be carried out in practice.

A combined solution is required—both military and civilian—in conjunction with Arab Gulf nations, which will allow the rehabilitation of the strip in cooperation with Hamas or—if a decision is made for Israel to go into the strip—without Hamas.

In the north, the dilemma is much simpler. Unlike the Egyptians, who have proven to be unable to influence Hamas and restrain it, the Russians in Syria can actually deliver the goods. They haven't done it yet because they still need the Iranians to fight the last stronghold of the rebels in the Idlib Governorate in northern Syria. If and when Assad completes his takeover of Idlib, the time will come when the Russians could put into action the "big political agreement" they're planning in Syria, as part of which the foreign forces will have to leave.

Right now, there is no use in removing the Iranians to within 100 or even 200 kilometers from Israel. In the age of missiles, rockets and cyber attacks, several hundred kilometers are meaningless. By being in our area, it's as if the Iranians are right on our border. That is why Israel needs to continue acting militarily and make it clear to the Russians that there will be no agreement—and they won't be able to reap the benefits of their interference in Syria—until the Iranians and their proxies leave Syria completely.

At the moment it appears the Israeli government and the IDF are at a loss in light of the serious erosion of the deterrence and of the ability to maintain security along the borders in the north and south. The immediate action needed right now to significantly reinforce the active anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense array—including the acquisition of thousands of interceptors and dozens of launchers, and of course fortifying structures all across the country. Such steps, in and of themselves, could immediately boost the deterrence.

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More potential for escalation

The pace of events in Israel's southern and northern borders has accelerated recently. Within a few days, alarms sounded in the Gaza border region and in Israel's northern border. According to Syrian reports, Israel attacked a missile factory located in the northwest region of Syria on Sunday. 

 

On Tuesday, two David's Sling missiles were fired at a Syrian rocket, and a Sukhoi plane that penetrated Israel's territory was shot down.

 

In addition, incendiary balloons keep landing in the Gaza border region, and on Wednesday an IDF officer was moderately wounded after being shot by a sniper from the Gaza Strip during the most serious outbreak of violence since the two sides reached a ceasefire last Saturday.

 

Fire caused by incendiary kites in the Gaza envelope (Photo: Zohar Shafek)

 

In this situation there are four aspects worth considering.

First, and as I have often mentioned in this section, since Israel wants to avoid fighting two different military conflicts on two different borders simultaneously, Israel must keep the peace on the southern border, for the north is much more challenging. Achieving peace in the southern border requires taking a step that Israel has yet to take: recognizing that the Gaza Strip can only be rehabilitated in cooperation with the government in Gaza, even if Hamas is still in charge. Reopening the Kerem Shalom border crossing is not the answer.

 

Israel Defense Minister at Kerem Shalom border crossing (Photo: Ariel Hermoni, Ministry of Defense)

The number of trucks entering the Gaza Strip daily does not matter if Gaza residents have no purchasing power, unemployment rate stands at 60% or even higher, there is no electricity, no water, and the sewage system is overflowing.

A long-term quiet along the southern border can only be achieved by making a deal with the Gaza government, without any pretense. The price we have to pay is political and public, but it is a small and equal price.

Second, the downing of the Sukhoi plane was a successful operation, but it would have been better if it didn't happen all.

In contrast to the attack of Iranian targets in Syria, the downing of the Syrian plane places Israel on one side, and Syria and Russia on the other. The incident's news coverage increases the chances of escalation.  It is worth remembering how Putin "went wild" when the Turks shot down a Russian plane that had crossed their border.

Palestinians at the Gaza border fence (Photo: AFP)

 

Third, nowadays, the reality in Syria after the civil war is starting to take shape. Israel insists, and rightly so, on returning to the 1974 separation agreement.

According to this agreement, a designated demilitarized strip will be established on the Syrian side, into which military forces will not be allowed entry.

David's Sling file photo (Photo: Defense Ministry)

 

Establishing this strip may be a sufficient solution for preventing friction between the land forces of Israel and Syria, but the strip is too narrow for the prevention of an air strike—in the southern region of the Golan Heights the strip is only hundreds of meters long.

We should try and reach an agreement with the Russians on a wider aerial demilitarized strip, in order to prevent an incident like the downing of a plane from repeating itself.

The relatively old Syrian plane apparently did not intend to attack Israel, but the absence of a security margin could mean recurring similar events that will only hurt both sides of the border. 

Fourth, the Israeli government conducts an exemplary policy vis-a-vis Syria: the proper integration of pragmatic and smart political action with firm military responses.

 

The downing of the Syrian Sukhoi plane

 

  

Why is the policy so balanced in this front, and completely wrong in the other?

The answer is clear: for the past 13 years, we have been imprisoned in a propaganda war with Gaza. We have repeatedly declared that Hamas is a terrorist organization and therefore, we will not negotiate with it. The prime minister can hardly deviate from this line, since it carries an internal political price—the price of cutting ties with his most important political base.

In the northern front we operate without any ideological, public, or political commitment, but, and rightly so, we operate according to our interests alone.

 

Syrian jet and trails of smoke from (Photo: shutterstock, Noy Golan)

This does not mean that we have no values, on the contrary. In the northern front, we proved our ability to take care of despondent civilians on the other side, beyond any political or military consideration.

But every decision is based on cold and realistic analysis of reality. It seems that Putin has proven more than once that those who conduct policies based on cold interests accomplish more.

We should learn from the way Israel operates in the Syrian front, and implement this on other fronts as well. Not only with Gaza and not only in matters of foreign affairs and security.

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Thank you for arresting the rabbi

Thank you. Thank you sincerely from the bottom of my heart. I feel obligated to express my heartfelt appreciation to the Rabbinical Court in Haifa for finally performing such a logical act—for instructing the police to summon Rabbi Dubi Haiyun for questioning for illegally presiding over a Jewish wedding in Israel.

 

And it is not because of the public relations we received that I am thankful to you, Judges of the Religious Court. Although the word "Conservative" has finally been spoken out loud and many have learned about the difference between this central and important movement and other Jewish movements. The main reason I am grateful is for the recognition. Now, through an official complaint that caused the police to pull Rabbi Dubi Haiyun out of bed at 5:30am, the Chief Rabbinate proved that marriages performed by Masorti—Conservative rabbi—are indeed marriages according to the law of Moses and Israel and must be legally registered.

Could we have wished for more distinct recognition?

Rabbi Dubi Haiyun (Photo: Muhammad Shinawi)

In fact, the arrest has laid to rest a saga which has been going on for decades. I have a faded letter from July 1995, over 20 years ago, in which the advisor to the Chief Rabbis at the time (the elder Rabbi Lau and Rabbi Bakshi-Doron) warned the Masorti Movement to desist immediately from sending reports of wedding ceremonies performed by its rabbis in Israel to the Chief Rabbinate. "I think you must be openly brazen,” writes the advisor on behalf of the Rabbi, "to send the Chief Rabbinate what you refer to as marriage reports."

Yes, the leaders of the Masorti movement at the time naively thought that the Chief Rabbinate (which is legally authorized to register marriages in Israel) would be interested in registering that a certain couple is married according to Jewish law for the the sake of good order, or at least for the sake of Halacha. But, the reports were ignored. To what extent? The envelopes with the reports of marriage, which had been sent by the Masorti movement by registered mail, were attached to the advisor’s letter—unopened.

I hope that now, the Chief Rabbinate will act differently. As far as we are concerned, we would be happy to renew the practice and update them about each of the hundreds of weddings throughout the country at which our Rabbis will officiate this summer.

The watershed that was crossed last week clearly demonstrates that the Chief Rabbinate is in a state of collapse. Public trust in it has reached rock-bottom. After this monopoly disappears from the world, we will look back and fail to understand how we let it determine what Judaism is for us.

The revolution is already taking place, and it is bubbling up from below. Almost a quarter of the couples who set up a home in Israel have already choose to do so outside the Rabbinate. No one even dreams anymore about converting through the Rabbinate. And Kashrut? Even the heads of the Chief Rabbinate themselves will not eat in a restaurant that bears a kashrut certificate which is solely from the Rabbinate.

However, when all is said and done, and despite the recognition and the attention in the media, I would have been happy if the rabbi's arrest had never taken place. The destructive effect of this arrest on the relations between Israel and its Diaspora is alarming. Rabbis who woke up on Thursday morning in North America and learned that their colleague in Israel was arrested for officiating at a Jewish wedding were shocked. Everything suddenly jumbled and became a lump choking the throat. The ritual bath law—that forbids non-Orthodox converts from using the mikveh—the conversion law—that is still on the agenda—the abolishment of the Western Wall Compromise Agreement, the humiliation of the Diaspora by the Nation State law and now, believe it or not, religion police that drag a rabbi from his bed to be taken to jail. The many emails I received from abroad on Friday projected a feeling that official Israel has declared a war of extermination on non-Orthodox Judaism.

This snowball must be stopped. The nation state of the Jewish people cannot call itself that without first understanding that the Jewish nation does not want or agree to bending itself to the Orthodox definitions of who is a Jew and what Judaism is. This change in Israel will eventually take place, however my fear is that by the time this happens, the rift with our brothers and sisters overseas will be impossible to heal.

Dr. Yizhar Hess is the CEO of the Masorti Movement in Israel.

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Syrian fighter jet: A navigational error with no hidden agenda

The downing of the Syrian Sukhoi plane was the result of a navigation mistake, and there was no hidden intention to attack the Israeli Golan Heights.

 

All the signs point to the pilot's plan to attack the so-called ISIS enclave—a militia called The Khalid ibn al-Walid Army—in the border triangle of Israel, Syria and Jordan, adjacent to The Yarmuk River.

Trails of smoke from the two Patriot missiles    (צילום: אלימלך גרסטל, צפת)

The pilot apparently arrived, at a relatively low altitude, from the T-4 airport, which is about 270 kilometers from the Syrian-Israeli border on the Golan Heights.

Within minutes the plane reached the area of the planned attack at the ISIS outposts.

Trails of smoke from Patriot missiles fired at the Syrian jet (Photo: Shimon Elbaz)

 

It is very difficult to identify the targets and even the towns in this area because of the vegetation in the deep wadis.

In any event, from the flight route, the speed of the aircraft, and the pilot's actions after the plane was hit, it can be concluded, almost undeniably, that the pilot was unable to navigate properly on the ground, causing him to fly almost 1.8 kilometers into our territory.

In accordance with Israel's consistent policy, the plane was shot down.

Israel has long been telling the Russians and the Syrians—including yesterday and again this morning—that it will not allow a violation of the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, and will respond immediately and with deadly results.

Any spillover, whether it is by a mortar shell or a fighter plane, will be met with a fierce Israeli response in order to protect Israel's deterrence, not only on the Golan Heights but along its borders.

Sukhoi fighter jets

 

In 2014, when the Air Force Patriot missiles downed a Syrian Sukhoi plane that accidentally penetrated the Golan Heights area, similar to Tuesday's incident, the plane was shot down without the pilot being warned in advance.

It can be assumed that if it was a Russian fighter plane, Israel would not be in a hurry to intercept it, but the Air Force has the ability to verify the identity of the plane without actually seeing it. And indeed, its identity was quickly verified.

The commander on duty in the "pit," the command center bunker at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv, authorized the downing of the plane.

Although the plane was being monitored for a few minutes before crossing the border, the duty commander did not need approval from higher command because it was a standing order that had been in the Air Force for years.

 

Syrian fighter jet (Photo: AFP)

The question remains: How is it that despite the warnings given to the Syrians and Russians in the past few days—including the warnings given Monday evening to the visiting Russian delegation, and the warnings given Tuesday morning to Syrians, through Russian coordination mechanisms—a Syrian pilot still makes a navigational error and enters our territory?

There is a fairly simply answer to this question.

Even in their best days in the 1990s under President Hafez al-Assad, Syrian air force pilots were not the sharpest pencils in the Syrian military box in particular, and in the Arab military box in general.

During the 1982 air battles, the Israel Air Force shot down more than 80 Syrian aircraft in wholesale.

 

Syrian President Bashar Assad (Photo: Reuters)

The Syrian civil war had worn out the Syrian air force, mainly because of the desertion of a number of Syrian pilots of various ranks, members of the Sunni denomination. The remaining pilots are inexperienced young men or aging commanders.

The Syrian rebels, who received shoulder-fired missiles from their Saudi, Qatari, and American patrons, ruined the fighter planes and air force helicopters that continued to fly.

Many of these aircraft were destroyed on the ground. This is precisely why the Iranians turned to Syrian President Bashar Assad, who then turned to the Russians in 2015 and asked for their aid in attacking rebels from the Russian airspace.

Putin responded, Russian pilots came through and turned the situation in Syria upside-down while saving Assad. 

With that in mind, there is no reason to be surprised if a Syrian pilot does not function as he is supposed to and pays for it dearly. It is reasonable to assume that the commander of the pilot and President Assad won’t view the incident as a pretext for another skirmish with Israel.

For the Assad regime and Russia, it is important for now to control the Golan Heights in order to consolidate their control over all of Syria. Anything that can detract from this effort has to be brushed aside. The Russians are also not expected to respond since they too agree with the principle that Syria must refrain from violating the 1974 Separations Agreement in the Golan Heights. 

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The card in the hands of Netanyahu and Eisenkot

The meeting of some senior level Russian officials with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot in Israel on Monday suggests that the agreements reached between Netanyahu and Putin, as well as Trump and Putin, were only agreed upon in principle and far from being concrete enough in order to solve the future of Syria and the Golan Heights.

 

What is still unclear on the strategic level is Israel's demand to prevent an Iranian establishment of a military presence. Another issue is the necessary security arrangements in light of the inevitable recapture of the Syrian Golan Heights and takeover of the Quneitra province by Assad’s army.

The fact that there are no detailed arrangements regarding the Golan is really troubling for Israel, which is why the IDF has recently increased activity in both the Golan Heights and in the rest of Syria.

(Photo: Haim Zach/GPO)

 

The goal is to make it clear to the Russians and to Assad that as long as a detailed agreement on the Golan Heights is not reached, and a deal between the Russian and the Syrians isn’t struck to promise the withdrawal of the Iranian forces from Syria—Israel will continue to interfere with Assad’s attempts to take full control of the Golan Heights and will respond to any violation of the 1974 separation agreements.

Israel is especially concerned by the presence of Shi'ite militias, such as Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary guards, among the Syrian army units that are currently advancing towards the Quneitra province and other areas in the Syrian Golan Heights. This is a direct contradiction to Putin's promise to Netanyahu, and apparently to President Trump as well, to keep Iranian forces at least 100 km from the Golan.

The fact that the Syrian army has Shi'ite militia embedded in its ranks is well known to the Israeli intelligence, and apparently it was the reason for Netanyahu's phone call to Putin a few days ago, and perhaps, even for the firing of David's Sling interceptor missiles on Monday.

(Photo: Wikipedia)

The Syrian SS-21 missiles, with a relatively accurate warhead weighing half-a-ton, were apparently aimed at the ISIS enclave on the border triangle between Israel and Jordan and Syria, but the missiles’ trajectory indicates they might have been aimed at the Israeli territory.

The commander of the David's Sling system decided to intercept them and it can certainly be assumed that he did not have a problem receiving an approval for launching the interception, partly due to Israel’s assessment that the Syrians would try to avenge the attack in the alleged IDF airstrike in the country a day earlier.

Another reason might have been that it was important for Israel to once again underline that it will not allow the Syrians to violate the 1947 separation agreements, and will not allow the Iranian forces operating in the country to enter the Golan Heights territory.

The Russian promise to Israel regarding Iran was made in order to avoid Israeli intervention in Assad’s attempts to take full control of the Golan Heights and southern Syria along the border with Jordan, but, Israel understands that the Syrians are being deceptive, and it does not intend to ignore it.

Israel also demands that Syrian rebels from the Golan Knights group will be allowed to stay in the demilitarized zone between the Israeli and the Syrian border on the Golan Heights, but only as a civilian organization.

It also became clear to Israel that the Iranians seem to be ignoring the Russian promises and Assad has allowed them to become entrenched in his army. Therefore it’s safe to assume that Israel has informed the Russians that it will not allow Assad to recapture the Golan Heights, which is what has brought Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov to Tel Aviv on Monday.

(Photo: Haim Zach/GPO)

 

In fact, Israel is not only demanding the re-implementation of the 1974 separation agreement, but also the return of the UN forces who fled the area when the revolt against Assad began. More importantly, it wants guarantees that there will be a detailed arrangement that will prevent the Shiite militias operating under the orders of the Revolutionary Guards from approaching the Israeli border.

In addition, Israel is demanding, in principle and in practice, that no Iranian missiles or defense systems be allowed to remain in Syria, especially anti-aircraft missile systems—that would endanger Israel's airspace and freedom in to act in the skies. Therefore, Israel demands the extraction of Iranian forces from all of Syria and just 100 kilometers from the Israeli border.

Israel has shown its willingness to agree to Assad's re-establishment of his rule throughout Syria, including the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. But only on the condition that the Iranians are forbidden from establishing a long-term military presence in Syria. This is a card that Israel will try to take advantage of.

(Photo: Reuters)

Israel has also demanded that the Iranians must not be allowed to take control of the border crossings between Iraq and Syria, which will allow them to maintain a land corridor from Tehran through Iraq, Syria, and from there to Lebanon.

It is especially important for Israel that the Iranians and their proxies do not take control of the city of Abu Kamal (Bukhmal), located on the Euphrates river, and in fact controls the main border crossing between Iraq and Syria and the main road leading to Damascus.

All of this will not only allow the Iranians to supply weapons to Hezbollah but also to establish a unified front against Israel on Syrian soil.

This was not something that Putin was willing to promise to Netanyahu or to President Trump. The US president apparently did not understand the trick that the Russian when he was told that Russia, too, wanted to remove Iran from Syria, but at the moment it is not practical.

(Photo: AFP)

 

Israel wants a promise from both the Syrians and the Russians that Iran will not be allowed to establish a military presence in Syria and will leave their stronghold in Abu-Kamal.

The arrival of the somewhat alarmed Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Chief of Staff Gerasimov on Monday attests to the fact that the Israeli threat is understood well in Moscow, because it is very important for Putin to allow Assad to take control of all of Syria in order to reach a political settlement that would end the ongoing civil war. Whilst Assad himself wants to recapture the Golan Heights and southwestern Syria as a symbolic act that would represent his victory.

As mentioned earlier, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Eizenkot, will try to take full advantage of the card they’re holding in order to reach a detailed written agreement that will be binding for all sides and will prevent a new front being established along the Syrian border similarly to the current situation in Lebanon.

This is what the State of Israel wants to prevent, and this is apparently the real reason for the talks with the Russians.

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The Right against Israel

I was going to write a piece titled "Not so terrible" or "Not the end of democracy" in the wake of the downpour of legislation last week. That is also what I told the editors of the opinion pages.

  After all, these laws are really not a disaster. The Nationality Law underwent changes in the wake of public criticism. The most poisonous of its articles was removed. This is proof of the effect democratic discourse could have. So was the law to regulate surrogacy, which is under contention in most democratic nations. There is not general consensus that this is even an appropriate procedure—because of the exploitation of women—and there is no basic right for gays to be able to use a surrogate mother to become parents.

Coalition celebrates passing of Nationality Law with a selfie (Photo: Amit Shaabi)

 The same is true for the Breaking the Silence Law. Is there a right granted to every organization to enter schools? After all, the Education Ministry revoked the budget of a yeshiva after one of its heads expressed ignorant views. It is allowed to set red lines. Not everything that is allowed to be said should also be said to schoolchildren. However, I must admit, that the more I delved into the condemnations from the international community, particularly with regards to the Nationality Law, the more my views changed. Israel is a Jewish state. It appears 29 times, no less, in the UN Partition Plan. When US President Obama visited Ramallah, he included in his speech—to the shock and outrage of Abbas and his aides—the demand for the Palestinians to recognize Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people. In those very words.

Arab MKs protest Nationality Law in the Knesset (Photo: Amit Shabi)

It's true that there's a loud post-Zionist and anti-Zionist minority that rejects the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. But there are already Basic Laws that include Israel's character as "a Jewish and democratic state." So why exactly did we need this law?

Well, we didn't. And the more days that pass, the more it appears the damage is much bigger than first believed. Hundreds of media bodies around the world have published condemnation articles in recent days. Many times, these articles included the words "racist legislation." It's true, many of the condemnations are coming from Israel's regular haters; they take advantage of any opportunity to denounce Israel. Israel's Knesset, in a foolish move, gave them another opportunity, as well as more fuel to their propaganda fire, according to which a state cannot be both Jewish and democratic.

The damage is greater, far greater, to Israel's relations with its friends in the world. The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) released a statement expressing concern. The most representative body for British Jews also released a statement saying the law constitutes a withdrawal from Israel's democratic commitments.

US Jews are mostly Reform and Conservative. The heads of these bodies released statements critical of the law. The American Jewish Committee (AJC), one of the most important Jewish and pro-Israeli bodies there is, also released a condemnation.

These bodies are strong supporters of the Zionist idea and the definition of Israel as a Jewish state. But the Nationality Law, even in its amended version, is making Israel—in their eyes—less democratic.

There's no need to agree with every word in the different statements. But it appears Israel's parliament scored an own goal.

The Nationality Law has one more dubious achievement: it undermines the very important relationship between the Jewish majority and the Druze in Israel. Brig. Gen. (res.) Amal Asad sent a letter to the prime minister four years ago, stressing that the legislation offends all members of the Druze community. There is no one who represents the close bond between the Druze and the Jewish state like Asad. But Netanyahu never bothered answering. The Druze never disputed the determination that Israel is a Jewish state. But not just Jewish, it's also a state that grants full rights to its non-Jewish citizens. Now, Asad and many other Druze like him feel like Israel is rejecting them. They already announced their intentions to petition the High Court of Justice against the law. It's not simple. After all, this is a Basic Law. It has no discrimination, but it does have a defiant tone, unnecessarily so. Why did we need this? The Nationality Law is a Basic Law, and there is no chance of changing it under the current coalition. The High Court won't rush to pull the chestnuts out of the fire, either. And only one thing is clear beyond any doubt. A week ago, there was consensus about Israel being a Jewish and democratic state. This week, this consensus is far less stable.

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Op-ed: No 'religionization' but a national memory

This is a warning call. We, the Jewish society in Israel, are in a high risk environment. To the incendiary kites burning the Negev fields, another incendiary threat was added: A fire that threatens to annihilate the memory threads that bind Israeli society to its identity.

A publicized campaign is trying to portray the Tisha B'Av mourning as part of an Israeli religious coercion process.

Tisha B'Av (Photo: Reuters)

It is almost superfluous to mention that those who form our national memory did not come from religious circles. Most of them did not observe Kashruth or Shabbat at home, but were deeply concerned about the Jewish identity of the state.

According to Berl Katznelson "If not for Israel knowing, for generations, how to grieve for its destruction on Memorial Day... Herzl and Nordau would not exist, and Bialik could not write the Scroll of Fire."

The commemoration of Rabbi Benjamin Lau, the day of the diminishing of the self, and the memory of destruction and Jewish exile, has nothing to do with religion or religious coercion.

It is linked to the shaping of the Jewish identity among Israelis, who continue the traditions of their parents and generations before them.

To define Tisha B'Av differently is a tragedy of a society that cuts itself off from the strings that bind it to itself. It is clear that the active process of rupturing these ties came from a deep sense of anxiety of a liberal society that feels threatened by religion.

They fear that religion will dictate all strands of life.

But this anxiety cannot give rise to an alternative Jewish identity, and against its will it unties the deep strands of roots from which it came into being.

Over the past few years, we have experienced up close the anxiety that revolves the Israeli society, from the Right and the Left.

I am leading alongside the journalist Gal Gabai a joint movement of reading in the Bible.

We strive to pave a wide road inviting all the opinions the Israeli society has to offer.

Liberal voices alongside conservatives ones, Reform alongside Orthodox, Right and Left—there is room for everybody.

During this fascinating journey we have found ourselves dealing with anxieties and with the sensations that bringing in the Bible into the aspects of life also pertains to the "religionization."

How did the Bible—the main book that molds the Israeli identity—become threatening?

There are those who argue that after the Six Day War the Religious Zionism adopted the Bible as reality forming and only identity molding.

 As the bible rose in the circles of the Religious Zionism, it became less important in the Israeli culture and society.

Last Sunday, President Reuven Rivlin celebrated the opening of the second round of Bible readings with us. In his speech he recounted an experience he had heard from Haim Gouri, who passed away this year.

Gouri spoke of a visit he made to a prestigious high school in the center, in which he read the charming poem of Rachel the poetess, "From afar," a poem that ends with the following lines:

Spread your wings. See from afar

There—no one is coming,

To each his own Nevo

In a land of plenty.

He felt that the students were not with him. The words "from afar" and "Nevo" sounded, in their ears, like a foreign language. Gouri called it the "associative disconnection." And when he realized that they did not understand him, he put the book in his bag and told the students that here, at school, on this day, Hebrew poetry died. 

 

President Reuven Rivlin

President Reuven Rivlin addressed his crowd excitedly: "My dearest, without the Bible one cannot read poetry and Hebrew literature

Without the Bible one cannot speak proper Hebrew. Without the Bible the next generation will miss its historic memory."

And I turn to you, the readers of this article—Do not allow political battles to cut the root teaching us our parents' story.

Do not cut angrily the memory thread. Let our hard struggles between us take place on the weekdays. But the few days of memory and holiday wrap in a protective envelope for the next generations.

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Hamas evened the score and rushed to ask for a truce

The quick end to the round of hostilities on Friday was due to the tragic fact that Hamas's snipers were able to shoot an IDF soldier and kill him. Hamas is doing macabre math, according to which it doesn't matter how many of its fighters were killed by Israel, so long as it avenges them and responds to their death with fire. Based on this bloody bit of accounting, the death of an Israeli soldier or civilian evens the score. That is why Hamas's military wing tried two weeks ago to hurt an IDF officer with a hand grenade thrown at him. The officer was wounded, but to them it was not enough. After IDF aircraft and tanks killed some of their fighters last week, Hamas terrorists fired at an IDF soldier and killed him this week. To them, that is enough, and that is why they could do without rocket and mortar fire this time. Hamas settled for three rockets that caused no damage, and then rushed to ask for a ceasefire from the Egyptians and the UN envoy to the Middle East, Nickolay Mladenov. It's important to note, though, that the sniper fire that killed the Israeli soldier was likely carried out by a group within Hamas's military wing that did not coordinate it with the more moderate elements in the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades or with the political leadership. That is why Ismail Haniyeh was right by the border fence not long before the incident, and that is also why some of the Hamas positions along the border fence were manned at the time. This indicates not all members of the terror organization and its inner factions were aware of the intention to target Israeli soldiers with live fire.

IDF attacks in Gaza (Photo: AFP)

But not all factions, including Hamas's political leadership, considered the death of an IDF soldier to be an achievement that would allow them to ask for a quick ceasefire without humiliation. Still, Hamas had at least two other considerable reasons to ask for a ceasefire. One, the IDF attacks on Friday were the biggest since Operation Protective Edge, and destroyed three battalion command headquarters, which joined another one destroyed in an Israeli bombing two weeks ago. The damage to the military infrastructure—including the weapons Hamas had planned to use to surprise Israel in the next big round of fighting—alongside the loss of lives Hamas suffered, must have been too hard to bear. The terror group must have also been worried that if Israel continued with these strikes, it could stand to lose a considerable part of its military infrastructure. The second reason that led Hamas to seek a quick ceasefire is the real fear of both Hamas's political and military wings of an IDF incursion into Gaza as part of a large-scale military campaign. Hamas believes that Israel is serious in its intentions to overthrow its regime if the IDF enters the strip for another big operation. This is something Hamas wants to prevent at all costs, and this is the strategic reason to its rush to reach a ceasefire. Hamas prefers to leave the negotiating table with at least one card up its sleeve, rather than lose all of its cards in a single round of fighting.

Destruction to Hamas battalion headquarters in Israeli strike (Photo: IDF Spokesman's Office)

Furthermore, the sniper fire and the ongoing arson terrorism greatly angered both the Egyptians and Mladenov, and they were the ones to contact Hamas, accusing the terror group of deceiving them. Hamas realized it had gone too far, and agreed to the terms of the ceasefire.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman accepted the recommendation of the IDF to stop the strikes for two main reasons. One, because the IDF's bombings on Friday were able to cause great damage to Hamas's military infrastructure. Furthermore, despite the fatalities it suffered in these strikes, Hamas hardly retaliated with fire and was quick to ask for a ceasefire.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Lieberman and IDF Chief Eisenkot hold situation assessment at the Kirya IDF headquarters (Photo: Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

This means that the "equation of terror" Hamas has been trying to implement on the ground no longer exists. Israel attacked relentlessly, and there was only one Code Red siren on the Gaza border. Therefore, Hamas has stopped acting based on the principle of fire being met with fire. The restraint recently shown by Israel and the IDF was perceived on the other side as weakness and caused partial erosion of the IDF's deterrence. Friday's strikes appeared to have at least partially restored the lost deterrence.

Another reason that led Israel to agree to a ceasefire as soon as Hamas proposed it was the terror group's commitment to Egypt to stop the arson terrorism and the terrorism on the border fence. According to a senior diplomatic official, Egypt will guarantee that Hamas keeps its word. And so far, it appears Hamas is indeed trying to stop the incendiary kites and balloons from Gaza.

Hamas committed to stop the arson terrorism (Photo: Zohar Shafek)

No rockets were fired Saturday, and there are signs we're heading towards a temporary truce. However, on the long term, the story is not yet over. The basic situation in the Gaza Strip, and the relationship between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, remains the same. The Egyptians and Mladenov may be able to mediate ceasefires, but they are unable to uproot the reasons behind the escalations that erupt from time to time. This is why the residents of southern Israel will continue living under threat, and the residents of Gaza will continue drinking dirty water and getting four hours of electricity a day. And we all know what comes next.

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Israel: The second largest Moroccan diaspora in the world

The World Cup in Russia generated unique images in the Israeli media related to Israel-Morocco relations. Fans of the Moroccan national team and Israeli football fans who attended the tournament posed for joint photos and were publicly speaking warmly about each other on. These images were very different from interactions between Israel and its Arab neighbors that we usually see.

 

This can be attributed to the Moroccan perception that sees the Moroccan Jews living in Israel as part of the Moroccan Diaspora. This perception in grounded in a report issued in March 2016 by the Moroccan Ministry of Diaspora, in which Israel was mentioned as the second largest Moroccan Diaspora after France, with about 800,000 Moroccans. This issue has also been raised in Moroccan public discourse over the question of the right of the Moroccan Diaspora to vote for parliament, and if so, does this right apply to Moroccans living in Israel.

In addition, an Israeli citizen of Moroccan origin who wants to obtain Moroccan citizenship can do so because the right to Moroccan citizenship applies by filiation up to fourth generation descendants. Not only that, in July 2011 an amendment was introduced to the Moroccan constitution, in which Judaism was mentioned as part of Moroccan heritage. Where else can we find a Muslim country that views Israel as one of its Diaspora, recognizes Judaism as part of its heritage, and even offers citizenship to some of its Diaspora there?!

Israeli and Moroccan fans at the World Cup (Photo: Amir Peleg)

 Another interesting development is recently happening within the Israeli society. Although some would assume that the Moroccan Jews living in Israel had forgotten about their Moroccan heritage, in reality, the opposite is true. The young generation of Moroccan Jews is searching everywhere in an effort to rediscover its Moroccan origin. They wish to strengthen the Moroccan identity's representation as part of the Israeli narrative. Others are even visiting Morocco through study tours aiming to learn from Morocco and bring back home some powerful insights. Those who get the chance to visit Morocco feel welcomed in the Muslim country, an experience that can alleviate even the toughest fears and bring up hope. Morocco can teach Israelis an important lesson that can one day bring peace and tolerance to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Beyond the Jewish heritage that lasted for more than 2,000 years in Morocco, the Israeli-Moroccan friendship began in the late 1950s with security cooperation and a need to regulate the immigration of Jews from Morocco to Israel. In the 1970s, relations continued to develop thanks to Moroccan mediation throughout the peace process between Israel and Egypt. In the early 1990s, following the signing of the Oslo Accords, relations between the countries improved significantly and became overt. In 1994, liaison offices were opened in Rabat and Tel Aviv, but since October 2000—following the second intifada—Israel and Morocco do not have official diplomatic relations any more. Nevertheless, there are many surprising types of cooperation that do take place between the two countries. For example, approximately 45,000 Israeli tourists visit Morocco each year. The number of Moroccan tourists visiting Israel is much lower, and is estimated at about 3,500 a year, also due to difficulties in obtaining visas to Israel. Significant, albeit limited, cooperation can also be found in agriculture. Morocco supplies Israel with agricultural produce such as sardines and olives, while Israel supplies Morocco with professional knowledge and technological equipment. Morocco also attracts agricultural entrepreneurs because it does not impose agriculturally-related taxes and even provides subsidies. In this context, some Israeli farmers established farms in Morocco and are growing almonds, dates, olives, and citrons there. However, the most striking cooperation takes place in the civil sphere, and is reflected in the exchange of delegations, the preservation of the Jewish-Moroccan heritage, festivals and music events, cinematic creations taking place in Morocco and Israel, cross-border research, student exchanges, and more. In June 2018 alone, three Moroccan civil society delegations arrived in Israel, joining a long list of delegations from Morocco in recent years. Similarly, Israeli delegations visited Morocco in recent years on various occasions, such as the International Climate Conference held in November 2016 in Marrakesh (COP22); The Judo Grand Prix competition that took place last March in Agadir; The Mediterranean Parliamentary Assembly held in the Moroccan Parliament in Rabat in October 2017, a study tour conducted by the Maoz Organization for Leadership Development.

Israeli and Moroccan fans at the World Cup (Photo: Amir Peleg)

The human movement between Israel and Morocco, and the media coverage and attention on social networks it enjoys, make the relations commonplace, and generate what can be called the "routinization effect". The frequent contacts between the two countries, which take place in various sectors, are transforming the reality on the ground while making the parties involved more used to Israeli-Moroccan interactions. The media coverage in Morocco, even if not always positive, encourages open and courageous dialogue in Morocco on issues related to relations with Israel and to Israel's relations with the Arab and Muslim world. Thus, the Moroccan public is becoming less sensitive towards signs of public cooperation, and the routinization effect gradually stretches the boundaries of cooperation. The cooperation between Israel and Morocco takes place despite movements in Morocco that support the Palestinian cause and call to boycott Israel. These movements, that influence Moroccan public opinion through the media and social networks, operate within the professional unions and mobilize the Moroccan public for protest. For example, they led protests against the activity in Morocco of the Israeli shipping company ZIM, and against the selling in Morocco (especially during Ramadan) of Israeli-made Majhul-type dates. These protests have had limited success to date. They do not prevent cooperation altogether, but limit it and prevent Israel and Morocco from realizing the full potential of their relations.

The multi-facet cooperation between Israel and Morocco, along with the mutual interest expressed by civil societies in both countries, attest to the great potential for cooperation that has not yet been realized. Progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will enable Israel and Morocco to move forward in their relations, as they did in the past.

Until that happens, the two countries should continue to develop their unique relationship, which is so different from Israel's relations with other countries in the region. The hugs between the Israeli and Moroccan fans in the World Cup give room for cautious optimism and indicate that there are real opportunities in Israel-Morocco relations that can be pursued, even if not all of them can be implemented in the current regional reality.

The Israeli-Moroccan relations are more than just relations between two countries, these are relations between a country and its second largest Diaspora.

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Hamas's military wing wants war

Hamas's military wing likely wants war. To the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, only another round of fighting in Gaza—in the form of another big war—can shuffle the cards and allow them to reach the results they want.

It's not at all certain Hamas's political leadership wants another military campaign in which the IDF would enter the Gaza Strip. In fact, it's pretty clear it doesn't want this, but the military wing is the one to decide, and it is the one that initiated the incidents on the border fence on Thursday and Friday, with the clear intention of escalating.

IDF attacks in Gaza

The measures the Hamas men used on Friday in the seemingly "routine" clashes along the border are clearly meant to lead to an escalation. There were others signs—which cannot be elaborated on—that the military wing wants a massive escalation in Gaza.

This is exactly why Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman visited the Gaza border on Friday morning and specifically stated Hamas is dragging the strip to war—against the interests of its residents. The defense minister's comments, which were quickly disseminated in the media, were meant to serve as a grave warning. And, indeed, what the defense minister hinted on happened on Friday afternoon. The IDF responded with attacks, and it will likely not end with this initial response. That is why the residents of the Gaza border area are called to listen to the instructions of the Home Front Command and remain alert.

Rockets launched from Gaza at Israel

Still, it might be possible to prevent a large IDF operation in the strip, but the chances of restoring the quiet are shrinking with every passing hour. It's pretty obvious we're in for a stormy weekend, but there is still a slim chance it would be possible to prevent what the Israeli government and the IDF—as well as Hamas's political leadership—don't want.

Iron Dome intercepts rockets from Gaza    (צילום: בראל אפרים)

It is, as I previously mentioned, Hamas's military wing that reached the conclusion that an escalation now—which will cause suffering to all residents of the Gaza Strip—is preferable to reconciliation with Fatah, the Egyptians and Israel. Such reconciliation will force them to give up all types of terrorism, require them to return the bodies of IDF soldiers and the living Israeli citizens they're holding, and stop them from digging tunnels and manufacturing rockets.

IAF attacks in Gaza (Photo: AFP)

 To Hamas's military wing, escalation will lead to condemnation from the world, and eventually they believe they could get what they want—including humanitarian aid to the strip's residents—without having to compromise on anything. The State of Israel knows this, and does not want a large-scale operation in Gaza, at the end of which we'll be back more or less to the same place, or worse, we'll have to stay in the strip for at least a few months. If the losses, the killing, and the PR damage to Israel's image in the world can be avoided, then the State of Israel prefers restraint, even though doing so severely erodes the deterrence. But Hamas's military wing has probably already made up its mind. It may not want the IDF to enter the strip, but it clearly wants serious escalation and fighting and is unwilling to make any concessions. Therefore, it is essentially inviting a large-scale IDF operation in the strip, even though it knows this time it would be more destructive and more deadly than all of the previous rounds. And it won't start slowly, but rather with a sweeping strike from the first moment.

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Egypt: Kingmaker in a new Middle East

Over the past year, together with several retired Israeli security experts, we have written about, and spoken of, the need to shift to a new paradigm to end the Israel Palestinian conflict and to move beyond the status quo. We have called for the establishment of a free, sovereign and independent Palestinian State in Gaza—with the addition of a territorial connection into a section of the northern, coastal area of the Sinai Peninsula.

We firmly believe that this plan, known as the New State Solution, is an idea whose time has come. An overview of that plan can be viewed here. Current events in Gaza have fueled a US led desire to find a solution to the impending humanitarian crisis there, resulting in American foreign policy statements that are far more focused on Gaza than the West Bank.

PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Egyptian President Sisi (Photo: AFP)

In our experience, when presenting the New State Solution, the most oft-recurring question queries why Egypt would agree to a Gazan expansion into a part of Northern Sinai that constitutes approximately ten percent of the Peninsula. The answer is that Egypt has many core interests that dovetail with the New State Solution, the most pressing of which stem from the three key verticals: economy, security and status - both within the Arab world and beyond.

Before outlining those in more detail, we should all consider the increasing regularity with which we bear witness to the failure of so-called experts to anticipate decisions undertaken by world leaders.

Think of just how many pundits failed to predict Brexit, or to foresee the surprising, yet fragile, détente between the US and North Korea. The consternation of commentators demonstrates just how persistently perplexed they are by the headlines of any given morning.

The lack of accurate prediction is not a recent advent. In 1906, as the Ottoman empire started to decline, Great Britain - which was then an ascendant global power - sent two warships to the region and informed the Ottomans that from that moment onwards the Sinai Peninsula belonged to Britain. After a brief negotiation, the Ottomans ceded all of the Peninsula to the British without a single shot being fired. Nobody could have foreseen such an event. But it happened. Pundits can only look so far into the past and most have very limited insight into the future.

Mistakenly, time and again, priority of consideration is granted to the stated positions of a given Head of State over the core interests they have for themselves and for the people they represent.

Given that the two are not always aligned, we would all be better served by inverting that order, placing greater emphasis upon interests over statements. Doing so charts a far more reliable path toward predicting and understanding international events.

(Photo: NASA)

Over the last few years, extraordinary geopolitical shifts have taken place in our region and the world. Several middle eastern countries have collapsed and there is a clear sense of instability and foreboding shared by many of the regional countries still standing. In terms of security, the focus of the Sunni Arab world has shifted due to pressing concerns about the survivability of their rule in the face of a two-pronged threat from Iran on the one hand, and radical Sunni elements on the other. Economically, such states are equally concerned by the implications of volatility and the decline in the price of petroleum, along with the challenges of finding alternative economic growth outside the context of a fossil fuel economy.  

In the case of Egypt specifically, we are presented with a country that has a rich history extending back thousands of years. And as the largest country in the Arab world, with a citizenry of close to 100 million, it hosts close to a quarter of the Arab population globally.

Yet rather than leading the region, Egypt is grappling with major challenges. The economy is fragile and the Egyptian government constantly strains to increase the supply of food to its population. Tens of millions of Egyptians struggle daily with the question of how they will be able to feed their families. While the government continues to do its best to improve the situation, the Egyptian state is still heavily dependent upon outside loans in order to meet the basic needs of its citizens. If the Egyptian economy declines further for any reason, there exists fertile ground for the further expansion of extremism. Riparian considerations are no less pressing. Egypt’s fresh water supplies may soon be significantly reduced due to the construction of the fourth largest dam in the world, located in Ethiopia’s portion of the Nile River headwaters. Alongside these economic challenges, Egypt is confronted with dramatic security threats, including the presence of ISIS not only in the Sinai, but also on the Libyan border. The traffic of weapons into Egypt and radical elements along the Sudanese border all require a large and sustained commitment of forces to control very long borders. The country faces a 360-degree struggle. Egypt has to contend with Hamas in Gaza, which collaborates with radical elements in the Sinai and has a strong ideological connection with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood at home who were toppled from power only recently. The threat of the Muslim Brotherhood still looms large in Egypt with its sustained influence over approximately thirty percent of the Egyptian population. And while the Egyptians were once the undisputed leaders of the Arab world, it will not be lost on them that whereas in 2009 President Obama began his maiden voyage to the region in Cairo, in 2017 President Trump launched his trip to the middle east with a visit to Riyadh. Poles of influence in the Arab world seem to be shifting. While President al-Sisi is likely the individual most qualified to meet such challenges, the hurdles before him are immense. Egypt needs something dramatic to ensure a brighter future for its people.

The stakes of the game are high. Success or failure for Egypt has global ramifications. Because as the key to the strategically vital Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean, Egypt is a crucial junction in global trade.

The world needs a stable Egypt. But to be stable, Egypt needs the involvement and assistance of a world that is, at the present day, focused on other areas of global crisis.

Economically, the New State Solution has the potential to deliver the massive infrastructure investment that Egypt needs, as well as the employment opportunities required by hundreds of thousands of Gazans and local Bedouin, who could take advantage of the instant works program afforded by the development of a New State.

Egypt would be the beneficiary of massive global investment in public, private partnership initiatives from a global community eager to resolve the Israel Palestinian conflict. As compensation for the courageous step taken by Egypt to assign approximately ten percent of the Peninsula for the New State (a land mass not less than the size of the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria combined), Egypt would be the recipient of international security assistance to clear the Peninsula of terrorist elements and to reinforce the aforementioned borders in the face of growing threats.

President Trump and President Sisi (Photo: AP)

The New State would offer a weighty and appealing alternative to extremism for a restive, young population as Israel and others make their just contributions to this urgent and decisive project. As kingmaker in a new peace process, Egypt, as the donor state, would regain its place at the center of regional and even global leadership. If structured properly, with Egyptian and international support, this plan can yield critical, timely and mutual gains for all parties involved.

Economy, security and status are the core interests that count. Egypt has plenty of reason to lead the way here.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect the view of Ynetnews or any of its affiliate publications.

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