Last Gantz saloon

Benny Gantz certainly put on a good show on Tuesday night. He looks good, he knows how to make a good impression, and his advisers seem to be acting on the assumption that this is all that matters in the modern era of big screens, small screens, viral videos and showmanship. That's how we ended up with a well-honed, genetically engineered speech. It really was the Dolly the sheep of addresses: it ticked all the boxes, was well-rehearsed and threw out one cliché after another. But underneath it all, what was actually there?

There was, in particular, a very conspicuous attempt not to fall into the trap laid by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rest of the Likud members, who are chanting the mantra that "Ganz is left-wing." They accuse him of being on the left? He will prove otherwise: he will color his campaign khaki; he will release videos with militaristic overtones; he will extol his death toll; he will threaten Iran's Rouhani, Hezbollah's Nasrallah and Hamas' Sinwar.

Gantz's people made sure he was photographed gazing into the middle distance, where one can find Yair Lapid's voters, the sinking ship that is the Labor party, and the soft right. This is where he is apparently hoping to pick up four or five Knesset seats, if only he can prove that he is not left-wing. But what did he say? The real question is, what didn't he say – for there was hardly any subject left untouched and or without a commitment to speedily resolve it, even if it went against all logic. How can we "deepen our partnership with the ultra-Orthodox," and at the same time "advance civil unions and the Western Wall egalitarian prayer section?" One cannot resolve these two contradictions, but there they both were in the same speech.

Benny Gantz making his first campaign speech of the 2019 elections (Photo: EPA)

So what was missing? Well, there were no Mizrahi (Eastern) Jews and no women. With a couple of exceptions, Gantz's list of Ashkenazi men is being formulated as if this were not the year 2019. It is very nice to declare in a speech that "we will fight against the exclusion of women " and vow to "smash all the glass ceilings that prevent women from having true equality," but who will believe him when the list he himself put together has no women, and is far from smashing any glass ceilings? Again, his statements and his actions are operating in isolation from one another. Not everything was bad, heaven forbid. His consultants knew exactly how to inject Gantz's speech with witty, pointed and cutting soundbites that were music to the ears of his potential voters. He should also be commended for having silenced the angry voices in the audience in a confident and authoritative manner. When he stepped down from the stage for a moment and went to shake the hand of an audience member, it was a wonderfully scripted move that really presented him in a positive light. Gantz steps well into the character of the savior-candidate. His confident step and sometimes embarrassed demeanor lend him the charm and grace of someone who is not a politician. This works well for a retired chief of staff who wants to take a few more seats in the polls, as was seen this week, but it is not enough for a prime minister. Gantz has not done enough to convince voters that his positions differ from those of countless existing parties. There is nothing new under the sun, and he will not be able to prepare as carefully for his next speeches as he prepared for this one. More critically, the privilege of not answering questions from journalists or the audience will not last forever. He is running out of chances.  

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Don't put too much stock in polls

Menachem Begin didn't believe in polls. He only believed in the ballot. Or, as he used to say at every political rally while he was expertly galvanizing his supporters: "A ballot and another ballot, a sea of ballots and we will win!"

  But if we want to learn anything from history, it's that we have to exercise caution when it comes to polls, especially those released immediately following the introduction of new candidates to the daily grind of the election campaign.

Take Benny Gantz, for example. The leader of the Israel Resilience Party, which was only officially born on Tuesday night, will register fantastic achievements with the most skilled experts in the art of political forecasting, even though he has yet to release the party's full Knesset list or disclosed his specific positions on the sensitive issues the electorate cares most about.

Israel Resilience Party head Benny Gantz (Photo: EPA)

The surprise he provided us with—which likely explains, at least partially, his takeoff in the polls—was thanks to the strength of his performance. He was convincing and presented a leadership that is natural, different and new. In other words: He presented an alternative to Netanyahu. The quick—and at times even violent—responses from the right wing's politicians, who whipped out their talking points (which were likely prepared even before Gantz's speech) show more than anything else that Gantz has managed to cause panic among his rivals, both in the center and in the right. The candidate branded as a "loser" in Israeli politics, the late Shimon Peres, tried to convince us there is no value to polls. There is a much-battered saying attributed to Peres that polls are like perfume: you can smell victory, but not taste it. In his case it was true: the polls correctly predicted his failures. On the other hand, as we've seen in the last elections in the US and in the Brexit referendum in Britain, polls could be very misleading. In Israel, too, there were leaders who got the Election Day with favorable polls, but at the moment of truth the voters did not deliver the goods. Lapid and Gabbay appear to be heading in that direction. But this time things might be different. The polls from Wednesday are indicative not only of the public's feelings toward Gantz, but also of its exhaustion from Netanyahu, who is running for his fifth term. The one trend the polls from all TV news channels point to is that there may be a considerable part of the public that has begun signaling to Netanyahu: No more. And so, the scathing responses on the right to the speech, as well as the attempts to brand Gantz with the offensive term "leftist," might not achieve their purpose for Netanyahu.

History doesn't lie: the only times in which a center-left candidate defeated a right wing candidate in the general elections were when the former had previously worn a general's ranks on his shoulders: Yitzhak Rabin, Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon got to the Prime Minister's Office thanks, to a large extent, to their impressive military record.

Will Gantz follow in their footsteps? It's too early to tell. Are the polls predicting a major upset? I wouldn't bet on it just yet.

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Protest, but don’t block the road

Israel already has high automobile and fuel taxes and they are expected to further increase. Benzene tax will soon be at 67%. If the lives of Israeli drivers are not difficult enough, let alone public transportation passengers, along comes the trend of blocking the roads during protests and causing gridlock across the country.

 

We, the ones behind the wheel, are now the primary target of public protests. Whether the disabled or the Haredim, and now the Ethiopians. Megaphones and placards in Rabin Square are no longer enough.

Ethiopians protest blocking Ayalon Road (Photo: Reuters)

For an effective protest the public must suffer. But where are the police whose job it is to ensure the wellbeing of thousands of citizens? They are enablers. They are adept at catching us with their tax trap schemes, known as speed cameras, but they can’t seem to deliver when it comes to our freedom of movement. So I am turning to the protesters: Something is bothering you? Stop taking it out on innocent hostages. Go and vent your rage at the government or the police or whoever it is that you have complaints towards. But leave us alone, especially when we are in the race against time, sitting in traffic on the way home to our children.

How many children and their guardians suffered because of the protest Wednesday? Aside from public outrage, not much was accomplished with that. Blocking the road harms, first and foremost, those in whose name the protest is being conducted. Trapping tens of thousands of Israelis on congested roads and embittering their lives for many hours is not an act of protest, it is pure hooliganism. Instead of enlisting support, you accomplish the opposite of what you are trying to achieve. It is as if you drew a weapon and fired at us, the public. If we, drivers and passengers, can hardly look out for ourselves vis-à-vis the state, how are we supposed to be able to satisfy your grievances? Every year, we give the state more than NIS 40 billion in taxes, so it has what it needs to distribute to you what you deserve as well as educate the police that a youth with a knife can be stopped without resorting to shooting him. The public has already paid the price. It is time that those who disrupt the lives of so many people pay a price, instead of being awarded with sympathy and understanding.

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Gantz needs Lapid to really takeoff

Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid told me he thinks Israel Resilience Party leader and former IDF chief Benny Gantz's debut speech on Tuesday was powerful, expressing the former general's values.

"Gantz really impressed me and I told him that," Lapid said on Wednesday even before different TV channels published polls showing a hike for Gantz in Knesset seats and a decline for Lapid's Yesh Atid in the April elections.

Israel Resilience Party leader and former IDF chief Benny Gantz

But you can count on Lapid to be enough of a gentleman to reiterate his remarks after he saw the polls.

Lapid is going through a rough patch. His Yesh Atid Party, which first entered the Knesset in 2013 with 19 seats, and dropped to 11 in the 2015, is not predicted to improve upon its current standing.

Seven years of hard and target-oriented work that saw considerable successes were almost instantly trampled by the new rising star, the rookie who just entered politics and is making his first steps in the toxic political arena. Yesh Atid's well-oiled machine has been pushed aside by Gantz and his young staffers.

This should not have come as surprise to Lapid. Israel in 2019 is not much different than what it was 30 or 20 years ago. At the moment of truth, social issues move aside before matters of national security, and candidates with social agendas step down and let the generals take over.

Gantz may not possess the main quality a prime minister should have—the killer instinct—however, he is equipped with a variety of other qualities that make up for this disadvantage, the main one being the fact that he served as the 20th IDF chief of staff.

Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid

These are times of grace for the new player in Israeli politics. The polls are flattering, the politicians from the Right are hysterically walking around with pre-prepared notes, and the Left is having a hard time hiding its jealousy. It won't last long. We all remember that when Avi Gabbay was elected as the Labor party chairman, the polls predicted he would earn 24 Knesset seats, which is more than Gantz is expected to gain according to the polls. Today Labor is expected to receive merely six Knesset seats in the upcoming elections.

The Israel Resilience Party said they were free of euphoria. Everyone understands this is only the beginning, and that in the Israeli reality, the fall can happen faster than the takeoff.

Teaming up with former chief of staff Moshe “Boggi” Ya'alon is not enough. Gantz will need other collaborations, as the polls indicate. Joining forces with another former chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, and Knesset member Orly Levy-Abekasis, who formed the Gesher Party after leaving former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu Party, would be helpful. But only teaming up with Lapid would boost Gantz's chances to bring about an upheaval in the elections.

Ongoing talks between Gantz and Lapid are held with no mediators. Both of them are maintaining a high level of secrecy. So far, Lapid has not shown any signs that he intends to back down from his statement that he will not be the number 2 man on somebody else's list.

But we should remember that this kind of talk usually lasts until the finish line. The parties' deadline for submitting their Knesset lists is three weeks from now. Three weeks is considered an eternity in the Israeli reality, and there you have a cliché that always proves itself to be true.

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Don’t get distracted by niche parties

Citizens of Israel, during the next few weeks you will be able to catch a glimpse of the size of the ego of your politicians. Watch carefully and those that insist on running alone may find themselves alone at home on the day after the elections.

 

The current election season brings us an inflationary amount of political parties, many only clones of older parties. Even a NASA telescope cannot identify the difference between the ideology of Yair Lapid and that of Benny Gantz, or the difference between Avi Gabbay and Tzipi Livni.

Orly Levy-Abekasis, Gantz and Ya'alon, Ashkenazi (Photos: Shaul Golan, Motti Kimchi, AFP)

Personality differences — certainly; a desire by everyone to be at the top — most definitely, but if the state is more important than everything else, invite a poll, see who brings more votes for the mutual goal and someone should exit the limelight.

Yes, if in three weeks, the deadline to submit party lists, it becomes clear that Moshe Kahlon’s party barely makes the cut, then he must decide where he sees himself politically and join ranks accordingly. It could be Lapid or the Likud, maybe Gantz, but it is entirely unreasonable of him to allow the votes of more than 100,000 Israelis to be tossed out and leave him and his partners outside of the Knesset.

The same applies for the Haredim. They should all run on a joint list and after wards they can focus on the finer points of difference between the Hassidim, the Litvaks and the Sephardim. There is also no real difference between the National Union and the Bayit Yehudi Parties. Dividing the votes has two principal disadvantages: one is that each of the small parties exerts undue influence on the political system since when forming a coalition, everyone has to be satisfied and it is an expensive process. The more dramatic disadvantage is the electoral threshold which is expected to stand at 160,000 votes this time. Voting for a niche party almost guarantees that your vote will be discarded thereby strengthening the opposite camp. Voters, if you are considering voting for a party that is quite similar to another party with regards to diplomatic, economic, religious or other matters, then you can be assured that it is mainly someone’s ego that the party is representing; give your vote to the largest possible bloc.

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The Ethiopian community cries out: enough!

Over the past week, I have been plagued with a constant feeling of unrest. I was very concerned about the protest organized by the Ethiopian community. I was afraid of the police's reaction, I was afraid of the pain and anger of my community. But on Wednesday I had the privilege of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with my brothers and sisters and shout out our pain in the most democratic way possible.

 

And I can say with pride that we staged the protest in the same way we were brought up, with the calm and quiet that is so typical of us, with determination and with our head held high. We did it while united and shouting "enough!"

Ethiopian community protesting against police violence (Photo: Dana Koppel)

Enough! Let us live with dignity while feeling secure in a country that we fought so hard to reach, in a country that is ours.

Enough! We don't want to swarm the streets and fight for our basic rights. We do want to walk the streets (safely), go to work, gain education, go shopping and have fun, while feeling secure and normal.

Labeling us as a violent community is wrong. It's unjust. Instead of labeling us, try to get to know us. Look us in the eye, see who we really are. We are exactly like everyone else. The only difference is the color of our skin. My heart beats exactly like yours and I want the same things as every 27-year-old woman wants—love, family, work and a safe life. That's all.

Titi Aynaw is a former beauty queen, a model and a lecturer.

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Gantz suddenly has charisma

After a long period of silence, Israel Resilience Party leader and former IDF chief Benny Gantz passed his first political test with flying colors. The event during which he delivered his first campaign speech at the Tel Aviv Fairgrounds on Tuesday evening was well-planned and Gantz managed to convey his message to potential voters.

Some 700 people filled the hall, while those who did not pre-register were left outside to watch the even on video screens. Tall and grey-haired Gantz sought contact—he hugged, kissed and posed for selfies with everyone who waved their phone at him, he was even compared to former US president Bill Clinton in his prime. He suddenly had charisma. 

Israel Resilience Party leader and former IDF chief Benny Gantz

During his speech Gantz walked a tightrope, as is expected of someone who chose to run as a centrist candidate. He lashed out at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and officials from his ruling Likud party, making a series of grave accusations against them, however, he avoided mentioning them by their names and preferred to refer to them as the government, the regime, the leadership.

The government is the one creating the rift and divides the Jewish nation; the leadership is obsessed with itself, those in power are leading a monarchy like in the days of France's Louis XIV; the government is exploiting Israel's security for rating and allows the Qatari cash infusion into Gaza as protection racket to Hamas, in addition to using bereaved families for political needs and the list goes on according to Gantz.

Israel Resilience Party's leader mentioned Netanyahu by name only once and the context was only seemingly positive. Gantz complimented the prime minister for the Wye River Memorandum signed in 1998 between Israel and then-Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, and Netanyahu's 2009 Bar Ilan speech in which he endorsed for the first time the creation of a Palestinian state that would exist alongside Israel. Netanyahu would have been happy to forgo both compliments. 

 

PM Netanyahu, Gantz (Photo: Alex Kolomoisky, Mark Israel Salem)

Stating he would not sit in a government whose prime minister is facing an indictment was the only issue influencing the day after the April elections that Gantz addressed. He won't be able to back down from this promise, but keeping it won't be easy. 

On some levels, Gantz comes as a surprise. When he first retired from the IDF in 2010, and before then-Major-General Yoav Galant's appointment as the army's 20th chief of staff was cancelled amid the land affair, Gantz had no political ambitions. Gantz was appointed as IDF chief of staff instead of Galant In 2011, and officially concluded his tenure in 2015. Only then he began thinking about politics. However, his ambitions were relatively humble, including thoughts of becoming the defense minister, or the foreign affairs minister or even maybe education minister. Gantz had no thoughts of running for prime minister, especially not right away. After all, he is not Ehud Barak.

With some exaggeration, like King Saul, Gantz went looking for donkeys and found a kingdom, or unfortunately, the ambition to become a king.

This is not the first time that senior IDF officers decide to enter politics. When the high-ranking generals get acquainted with politicians during General Staff meetings, they feel contempt. Sometimes they pledge to never go into politics, and then, on second thought, they go into politics after they understand the political arena is where the big decisions are made and that only there will they be able to make a difference.

Those who worked under Netanyahu have issued a lot of criticism regarding the prime minister's decision-making process. They go into politics because they are convinced that as far as Israel's security is concerned, their performance would be as good as Netanyahu's and maybe even more sober, pragmatic and practical. 

 

Gantz and Ya'alon

The less people know Netanyahu, the more they admire him. The retired generals are convinced that if they enter politics, they will make some sort of correction. They were trained to think in stately (patriotic) terms. The country is genuinely important to them and they are truly concerned about what has happened to it during the Netanyahu era.

There are countries that live in fear that a military junta will rule after taking power by force. I don't think this is the case in Israel. I mistakenly thought Gantz did not have the spark—or if you will, the hunger, the ambition, the passion—that pushes people to run for prime minister.

Perhaps I misjudged him. Maybe while compiling his party's list a spark was lit in him. There was something very moving in seeing former chief of staff Moshe “Boggi” Ya'alon, who was once Gantz's commander and now agreed to be his number 2 man on the list, joining him on the stage.

This reminds me of Charles, the Prince of Wales, who will probably not get to be the king of Britain, standing next to his son William the Duke of Cambridge, who he is expected to abdicate in favor of to inherit the throne.

Netanyahu or not Netanyahu—this is the main dilemma of this election campaign. The question of how to resolve this dilemma at the ballot box remains unsolved, and much is yet to be said about it.

For the meantime, Gantz's debut speech ended with singing the national anthem and with blue and white patriotic confetti. But this was the easy part, now begins the hard part.

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Highest in pesticides, Israeli fruits and veggies might be killing us

Lately I've been walking around my home like the witch from Snow White and the Seven Dwarves, offering everyone in our household some fruit and vegetables. Are you hungry, sweetie? I’ll fix you up a salad with some fresh squeezed pesticides and get you a poisoned apple. My family has taught us from infancy the importance of enriching a diet with a variety of fruits and vegetables. I passed on this tradition. I, with my own hands, placed on my children’s plates plenty of food generously sprinkled with harmful substances. I can’t describe the turmoil I’ve experienced after hearing about a wave of investigations that recently revealed a sad truth about the local agriculture.

 

According to a report in the Menta magazine, the use of pesticides and insecticides in Israeli agriculture is among the highest in the world. Israel also has the highest non-Hodgkin lymphoma—a group of blood cancers—rates in the world, with the second highest mortality rate for the disease. These revelations coincide with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) report that suggests a connection between specific pesticides and certain types of cancer. In the meantime, the Ministry of Health revealed the results of biological monitoring, showing that 15% of Israeli children had pesticide residue in their food, the doses of which were much higher than recommended.

Pesticide use in Israel one of the highest in the world (Photo: Shutterstock)

In addition, Israel Union for Environmental Defense, this week published a comprehensive report, explaining the negative effects of overindulgent pesticide use on children. The report concludes that pesticides accumulate in our bodies, making us vulnerable to various rare and serious diseases. According to the report, Israel has the highest rates of pesticide residue in comparison to Europe and the United States.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Health and Environmental Protection have all co-signed on this total lack of oversight. Minister of Agriculture Uri Ariel—who is in charge of the body responsible for plant protection products—should be held accountable for failing to protect our families from ingesting these extremely high levels of toxins. Ariel is also indifferent to the absurd double standard requiring farmers, who cultivate agricultural produce meant for export, to report the percentage of pesticide residues found in their crops, while produce meant for the local market is not subjected to similar inspections.

(Photo: Shutterstock)

The Israelis are the champions of fruit and vegetable consumption. The disproportionate use of pesticides, however, turns supposedly healthy eating habits into a toxin-filled diet. The most contaminated fruits and vegetables are: apples, leafy vegetables, wheat, barley, strawberries and grapes. Basically everything that was supposed to help us raise healthy and happy kids. So, what is there left to eat? Chocolate! And well done to my neighbor who neglects her children and feeds them junk food, because at least her kids, who have probably never touched an orange, don’t grow trojan horses in their bodies.

Vegetables (Photo: Shutterstock)

As a result, our family has decided to take on an organic challenge diet. Once a week, a basket of vegetables, from one of the organic farms that thrive in moshavim, arrives at our doorstep. The problem is that it’s a little pretentious, five times more expensive than regular vegetables (which an average family in Israel cannot afford), and no one actually promises that organic pesticides are not the same kind of ticking bomb as regular ones, just a little greener.

In August of last year, the US court ruled that a Californian gardener who claims to have contracted cancer due to exposure to pesticides and insecticides must be compensated with $289 million in damages. In Israel, we must demonstrate and demand that the government promotes a national plan to reduce pesticide use. Anything less must prompt every Israeli citizen to take to the streets.

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Gantz's next mission: Teaming up with Ashkenazi or Levy-Abekasis

After the fanfare had died down and the colorful confetti was sent for recycling, work has begun in earnest in Benny Gantz's campaign. After the festive and (in their eyes) successful launch event on Tuesday night, officials in the Israel Resilience Party said that the momentum from the former IDF chief's speech will be hard to maintain for long. "Additional actions will be requires to 'keep Gantz floating' and to turn him into a candidate who could go head-to-head with Netanyahu," one party official said. The coming days will see many dramatic polls: how did Gantz's speech affect the number of Knesset seat his party is expected to get in the upcoming elections? Will his decision to join forces with former defense minister Moshe Ya'alon bring more Knesset seat than either of them could bring in separately (assuming you count Knesset seats even if there aren't enough of them to pass the electoral threshold)? After the event, the feeling at the Gantz campaign is hopeful, and pollsters will now start to examine whether Gantz's "speech of a lifetime" has swayed the Israeli electorate. Polls will be the name of the game in the coming days, but Gantz is also working on political moves that would lead to more team ups.

In the center: Ya'alon and Gantz teaming up; left: Orly Levy-Abekasis; right: Gabi Ashkenazi (Photos: Shaul Golan, Motti Kimchi, AFP)

In private conversations, Gantz is talking about bringing in a third IDF chief: Gabi Ashkenazi. Gantz is convinced Ashkenazi is not just security-oriented, but also a social leader who could bring in votes from the right. Ashkenazi has already been talked into joining, but he is only interested in doing so if he is confident a political change can be achieved. "I prefer working with those who seek the kingdom, not the kingship," Ashkenazi said in private conversations. "We very much want Ashkenazi. We're waiting for him," Ya'alon said. "The door is opened; we're waiting for him to come." Ya'alon himself reached a fantastic achievement by securing three spots in the top ten of the Israel Resilience Party's Knesset list, but he too had to put away his ego. When Ya'alon was the IDF chief of staff, Gantz was a major general under him. When Ya'alon was the defense minister, Gantz was the IDF chief. "He put his honor and ego aside and agreed to be no.2," said one of Ya'alon's associates. "He had always been above Benny, and now he has agreed to be no.2."

In tandem, Gantz is looking into the possibility of joining forces with the Gesher Party, led by former Yisrael Beytenu MK Orly Levy-Abekasis. Levy-Abekasis, like Ya'alon, is considered "soft and moderate right." She and Ya'alon are met with no objection from the left, and they can bring in votes from the right. To Gantz, this is the winning formula.

Israel Resilience Party head Benny Gantz (Photo: GettyImages)

Still, Gantz won't have an easy time of putting together his Knesset list. There aren't a lot of "stars" entering politics at present. His list will be made up of people who aren't necessarily well known. For example, the top ten in the Gantz-Ya'alon list could include: 1. Gantz. 2. Ya'alon (according to the agreement reached). 5. Yoaz Hendel (according to the agreement reached). 8. Zvi Hauser (according to the agreement reached). In addition, two Yeruham officials, who have ties with Gantz from his days before entering politics, are expected to join him—former council head Michael Biton and educator Moshe Yehiel (Chili) Tropper. Tropper worked on Gantz's speech behind the scenes and has been working non-stop. The top ten will also likely include three women, with journalist Miki Haimovich being floated as a possible option. Meanwhile, additional details have come to light about the agreement between Gantz and Ya'alon, which was reached at the beginning of the week. Gantz and Ya'alon are natural partners, with a shared military past and a similar career trajectory. But behind the scenes were two additional players, both of whom by coincidence or not served Netanyahu in the past: former Cabinet secretary Zvi Hauser and former head of PR Yoaz Hendel. Officials who were involved in the talks between Gantz and Ya'alon said both Hauser and Hendel played a major part in the negotiations. Now, they are both expected to secure spots in the top ten as well.

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The old-new anti-Semitism

On Sunday, the world marked International Holocaust Remembrance Day. Some 50 Holocaust survivors, accompanied by Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Israeli Ambassador to Poland Anna Azari, gathered outside the former concentration camp of Auschwitz in honor of the occasion. Not far from where the ceremony was taking place, scores of neo-Nazis demonstrated against what they described “the occupation of Poland by the Jews."

 

This protest was led by Piotr Rybak, a nationalist who in 2015 was sentenced to ten months in prison for burning a Jewish effigy at a nationalist rally in the city of Wrocław. Key opinion leaders in Poland as well as in the rest of Europe, condemned the controversial demonstration, while the local police said that they are investigating the "chain of events." The next day, however, the homes of some Jewish residents in the city of Poznań were vandalized with anti-Semitic slogans, such as "Down with the Jews!" and "Nazi Zone."

Holocaust survivors and their relatives carry candles at the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp on International Holocaust Memorial Day, January 27, 2019 (Photo: DPA)

The wave of anti-Semitism, incited by various neo-Nazi groups, is sweeping not only Poland (although in Poland for historical reasons it causes the most outrage), but in the rest of Eastern and some parts of the Western Europe. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during his remembrance day speech, emphasized the anti-Semitic views exhibited by those on the Left, the Jewish lives are threatened mainly by those on the right—far-right activists and neo-Nazis. Robert Gregory Bowers killed eight men and three women inside the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh shared their extreme ideology and so do those who harass Jews in Hungary, eastern Ukraine and areas that once were part of East Germany.

It’s true that anti-Semitism is taking root in left-wing discourse, being disguised as anti-Zionism. For instance, the American feminist movement has split into two factions because of this issue. Recently in New York the movement held two separate demonstrations. The first—attended by hundreds of people—led by progressive liberals, while the second—participated by very few—was saturated with anti-J

Jewish propaganda presented as anti-Zionism.

Anti-Semitic views with the Muslim community are undeniably prevalent, and the same is true for some elements in the British Labor Party, left-wing parties in Ireland, Spain and Italy. The leaders of these parties and left-wing movements, however, are quick to condemn these views. Unlike those on the Right, who proudly display swastikas and chant songs praising Hitler, urging to "settle scores with the Jews."

Generally, it’s safe to say that the less liberal and democratic the West becomes, it becomes more open and receptive to anti-Semitism. Populist anti-Semitism is spreading, especially among young people, along with the spread of populism itself. It’s happening just as fast today as it had in the past.

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Israel never stops to think

There are those who have accused Benny Gantz of not saying anything of value before his speech on Tuesday night, yet the same is true of the other parties, who also say next to nothing. But once every four years, we expect those seeking to win over the voters to really examine the issues in depth, set aside their existing beliefs and shine on a light on matters of national importance that are not being dealt with. Sadly, however, this does not happen.

Take, for example, the state budget. The budget is determined each year by three criteria: a variety of macroeconomic data; political deals and/or new laws; and the "automatic pilot" assumption that if a certain project received funding last year, then it will receive funding the following year too, and perhaps even a higher amount. No one ever thinks to review these allocations, to look into the possibility that the initial calculations were wrong, or that perhaps certain projects are getting unnecessary allowances from one government ministry or another. Specifically, no one ever goes through a rigorous planning process or defines the objectives of every allocation.

Another worrying aspect of the state budget is the bureaucracy surrounding it. For example, if the welfare minister wants to divert NIS 5 million from supporting disadvantaged youth to help for abused women, he must receive approval from both the Finance Ministry's Budget Division and the Knesset Finance Committee. Why? This system of bureaucracy is more in line with the Soviet Union of the 1970s, but unfortunately is in use in Israel to this day. All this system does is guarantee extreme inefficiency and infinite preoccupation with trivial details.

Israeli lawmakers at work

Let's say the system is changed, so the number of clauses in the state budget is brought down to 20, to match the number of government ministries. It would increase the autonomy of individual ministers, along with their responsibility for and commitment to meeting their objectives. Would that not be an improvement? It is possible that there are other solutions, but the existing system appears to be based on the unspoken assumption of Israeli politics that "what used to be, was right, and is what will also be."

The state budget, for example, needs a double overhaul: the introduction of national planning for the national budget, and a significant reduction of clauses in the document itself. This would make it possible to free up billions of shekels to cover the existing budget shortfall, and perhaps even mean the transfer additional funds to Israel's crumbling hospitals. Hospitals, by the way, are an excellent example of how the existing system is failing. Hospital budgeting is currently conducted using a uniquely Israeli method known in Hebrew "cost minus", in which health institutions are allocated money according to their actual expenditure, minus a little bit.

This sad state of affairs is true for multiple issues in the Israeli public discourse, the most striking example being the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the assumption that it is only possible to either contain it or advance the two-state solution. Who decided that this was the entire spectrum of options? When was that decision made?

Israel's problem is not that it makes bad choices, but the absolute lack of discussion on almost every important issue.

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All the prime minister's men

With the bolstering of Benjamin Netanyahu's legal defense team and his many declarations in the media, on billboards and in videos, it seems that it has finally sunk in over at the prime minister's residence that there is no more dodging or weaving. Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit's decision regarding the corruption investigations into the prime minister will apparently be published in the coming weeks, and not after the elections as Netanyahu so desperately wanted. To this end, Netanyahu's inner circle is hunkering down to prepare for a hearing, and are planning for a last ditch effort to diminish the power of the indictment, if it is brought.

 

Netanyahu's aides, legal advisors and associates are out in full force to replace the image of a corrupt leader dogged by police investigations with a picture of an innocent man brought low by his scheming political rivals.

One of the main arguments made by Netanyahu's defense attorneys concerns the purity of the investigation. Sources close to the prime minister claim that police officers did not have the tools to conduct a proper investigation for the a number of reasons. Firstly, they argue that during questioning by the Police Internal Investigations Department, Maj. Gen. Roni Ritman, the former head of the Lahav 433 anti-fraud unit who quit over sexual harassment claims, claimed that he suspected the female officer who made the complaint about him was sent by Netanyahu's associates. And thus, the prime minister's legal team asserted, Ritman "had a conflict of interest and did not want to really dig for the truth."

Former Israel Police chief Roni Alsheich at the INSS conference, January 27, 2019

Netanyahu's lawyers also plan to bring up former police commissioner Roni Alsheich at the hearing, to brand him as someone who could not be objective because "he claimed in interviews that someone put private investigators" onto the police officers working the prime minister's cases, which "has not been proven." Moreover, Netanyahu cronies claim, Alsheich admitted that details of the investigations had leaked – which raised questions about its reliability.

  

Speaking Sunday at a conference held by the Institute for National Security Studies, Alsheich referred to the criticism that has been leveled against him for the duration of the investigations into Netanyahu. "I think that we (law enforcement officials) have all seen the evidence," he said, and rejected any allegations that the police had trumped up the charges against the prime minister. Alsheich said he had never questioned Netanyahu himself, but did insist that he "read every word of the testimonies of the interviewees." He also flatly rejected any allegations that police officers had leaked details of the case. "Journalists know that the police do not leak, period," he said. "I know where the leaks came from."

Regarding Case 4000, the main argument of Netanyahu's camp is that sympathetic coverage is not considered a bribe. The prime minister is suspected of taking bribes and acting in a conflict of interest by promoting regulations worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the Bezeq telecommunications company and its then-majority shareholder Shaul Elovitch. In return, the prime minister allegedly received favorable coverage on Elovitch's Walla! website.

Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Shaul Elovitch

According to Netanyahu's camp, police investigators again did not really push to find the truth. And the fact of the matter is, Antitrust Commissioner Michal Halperin —one of the most relevant witnesses — was not summoned for questioning.

Another claim against the validity of the case is that no attempt was made to assess whether the coverage on the Walla! website was really sympathetic to Netanyahu and his family. The prime minister's inner circle also claim that the facts of the case were embellished and that in reality 91% of Bezeq's shares were publically held, and that Bezeq suffered heavy losses in the wholesale reform of the market.

As for Case 1000, Netanyahu's associates claim that the police vastly inflated the value of the cigars gifted to the prime minister, to the sum NIS 500,000. According to the alleged gift-giver, Israeli-American producer Arnon Milchan, the cigars were bought in two stores in Herzliya. Furthermore, Netanyahu's associates claim, their own investigation of the cigar supplier showed that during the years in question, the supplier ordered the import of the cigars favored by Netanyahu for just NIS 269,000. Therefore, according to the prime minister's associates, it is inconceivable that all the cigars imported to Israel were purchased by Milchan alone and given solely to Netanyahu.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Arnon Milchan

Another argument leveled by Netanyahu is that during his stint as minister, Yair Lapid also met with Milchan, accepted cigars from him and even dealt with his request to amend legislation. Therefore, from Netanyahu's point of view, this is selective enforcement that targets him alone.

Regarding the state's witnesses, the prime minister's camp claims that agreements reached with them were carried out in contravention of the attorney general's position on other cases and performed in a "wholesale" fashion. Furthermore, Netanyahu's associates claim, key witness Nir Hefetz was brought in by the prosecution even before they reviewed the possible evidence he could provide.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu's lawyers on Sunday presented the attorney general with a binder containing 122 leaks allegedly published during the course of the investigations into the prime minister.

"This is a clear case of quantity becoming quality until, given the continuous flow of leaks, and in light of the contamination of the investigation, one receives the impression that unacceptable norms have become ingrained in these investigations," wrote Netanyahu's attorneys Navot Tel-Zur and Tal Shapira.

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The new Arab boycott

A major economic conference was supposed to take place last week. There was no international clamor, there were no demonstrations on campuses, the BDS anti-Israel brigade were nowhere in sight, but the conference still failed due to a boycott.

 

Surprisingly, this wasn't a conference that was supposed to be held in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem—it was the Fourth Arab Economic and Social Development Summit, held in Beirut and boycotted by the leaders of the Arab countries, with the exception of Qatar and Mauritania.

Is the Arab world boycotting Lebanon? Officially, no. In practice, yes. Like so many problems in the Middle East, Iran was the reason this time as well. Lebanon could have been the most prosperous country in the Arab world, wrote Abdulrahman al-Rashed, former editor of the Asharq Al-Awsat daily and current director-general of Al-Arabiya, but that will never happen because Iran controls Lebanon.

Iranian FM Zarif meeting with Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Beirut (Photo: Reuters)

Al-Rashed wrote: "The region is experiencing a series of crises, whose common denominator is a connection to Iran. Unfortunately Lebanon will not be stable, the Palestinians will achieve neither statehood nor normal life, in Yemen, Iraq and Syria there is no hope for a better future for as long as Iran continues with its policy of causing chaos there," he said.

As opposed to former US president Jimmy Carter and Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom, who subscribe to the belief that everything wrong in the region is down to "the oppression of the Palestinians by Israel," courageous elements in the Arab world, such as al-Rashid, are pointing the finger at Iran.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards General Qassem Suleimani in the area of Aleppo, Syria

Iran, regardless of the bust that was the Beirut conference, is in trouble. Before the nuclear agreement of July 2015 was reached, the sanctions against Iran had led to a slump in the country's GDP per capita, from $7,832 in 2012 to $4,862 in 2015 (for comparison, the Israeli GDP per capita in 2015 was $36,690). Two years on from the nuclear agreement and the easing of sanctions, that figure was $ 5,593 in 2017 (in Israel, it was $40, 270.) But because the US has decided to renew the sanctions, Iran's situation is once again deteriorating.

For years, the country has been suffering from drought. The area surrounding Tehran itself is on the decline, which could cause an environmental disaster of an unknown magnitude. The only one of its neighbor with the ability to cope with the drought is Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu even offered help. It would have been wonderful for Iran to choose regional cooperation over developing nuclear weapons and financing subversion in every possible corner of the Arab world, but it didn’t.

Instead, the ayatollahs prefer to invest billions in the industry of death to solving the serious problem of it physically sinking. Admittedly, this is the eternal problem of radical Islam, Sunni and Shi'ite—it always chooses destruction over development and prosperity. 

Lebanese PM Hariri and Iranian officials in Beirut (Photo: EPA)

 

And this is where one of the global scams of the modern age comes in. The Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement may dent Israel's image, but it certainly does not upend reality as it claims to. Instead of the Western educated elite recognizing that the main problem in the Muslim world is religious extremism and jihad, those members of the elite are busy cultivating the conspiracy that Israel is the problem. This is of no help to Muslims in general and the Palestinians in particular. On the contrary, it transforms those westerners into the propaganda arm of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. While this is a great way to perpetuate the problem, it definitely is not the way to effect change.

From an Arab perspective, things look different. While the word "refugees" was bandied about repeatedly at the conference, this time it meant Syrians, and the Palestinians were not mentioned at all. The Palestinians have become a kind of chronic illness, with no real expectation that this issue will ever be resolved. But so that the Syrian refugees do not become refugees forever, the talk of them returning home—willingly or otherwise—is gaining momentum. 

Al-Rashed correctly defined Iran as the region's central problem. It is a definition accepted by most of the leaders of the Arab states, whose take a similar stance to Israel. It is a pity that something is becoming increasingly understood in the Arab world is less and less understood by the progressives of the West.

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Three positive developments for Israel

In the Middle East, everything can change from minute to minute, and that's exactly what happened to Israel this week. It began with a violent escalation in the Syrian arena, continued with a violent escalation in the Gaza arena and tension in both arenas that lasted into Friday. But by Friday night things were taking a turn for the better. Three developments in the last few days - both on the Syrian and Gazan fronts - have significantly improved the security situation from an Israeli perspective.

 

The first improvement occurred on Friday, when Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov went on CNN and announced that Russia is not exactly an ally of the Iranians and that Israel's security must also be taken into account. Such a statement by the Russian deputy foreign minister can be seen as a diplomatic turning point, in which Moscow corrects course after a stormy few months. For it was just on Tuesday that a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Israel's "arbitrary" attacks on Syria should stop. Three days later, and the same Foreign Ministry in Moscow – albeit via a higher rank than the spokeswoman – is singing from a new hymn sheet.

Vladimir Putin and Bashar Assad in Latakia, Syria (Photo: AP)

This aboutface is down to the fact that — as curious as it sounds — Russia needs Israel more than it needs Iran. The Russians have recently come to the realization that Israel is willing to go to the wire to thwart Iranian consolidation in Syria, the plan to improve Hezbollah's precision missiles in Lebanon, and the Iranian forces in Syria. The Israeli decision to end its veil of ambiguity over its Syria strikes definitely contributed to this realization.

The Russians have apparently come to the conclusion that the Iranians are dragging Israel into attacks in Syria, which could hamper Russia in fulfilling its strategic goal of stabilizing Bashar Assad's regime and starting to rebuild the war-battered country. The Russians are supposed to benefit from both the economic and political rehabilitation of Syria not become embroiled in a war between Israel and Iran.

  

What really matters is that the Iranians need Russians far more than the Russians need the Iranians, not just regarding the civil war in Syria, but also the new sanctions imposed by the United States when it abandoned the nuclear agreement. Russia is the only country that allows Iran to export oil through it, while the other countries are barely doing so once the US decided to stop the sanction exmeptions it gave to eight states that buy Iranian oil. Russia is the only one of the eight countries to announce that it will continue to buy oil from Iran, and even sell it on the world market.

Meanwhile the European countries, which initially demonstrated a desire to help export Iranian oil despite US sanctions, are now abandoning Tehran one by one. Moreover, France, Britain, Germany, and other EU members have told the Iranians that if they do not stop developing long-range ballistic missiles, they will impose their own sanctions. In other words, in a few weeks' time Iran will be alone with the Russians, and its economy will largely depend on Russian goodwill.

Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (Photo: MCT)

The Kremlin apparently carried out a speedy situation assessment and decided on a change of course in the Mideast. While the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian military establishment do want to limit Israel's freedom in the skies, the Kremlin thinks that the Iranians have behaved badly of late. What apparently pushed the Russians into shifting their stance were reports that Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, was spotted about 10 days ago on a tour in southern Syria, some 40 kilometers from the Israel-Syria border on the Golan Heights.

This was a blatant violation of Iran's commitment to Russia, and Putin's public declaration that the Iranians and their proxies would keep 80 kilometers from the Israeli border. Israel gave Russia public proof that the Iranians had broken their promise, which Putin apparently did not like that at all. He decided, therefore, against the advice of his military and diplomats, to let the Iranians know that they had to meet their commitments. Ultimately, he decided that Russia does not approve of the Iranian entrenchment in Syria. The announcement that, "Iran is not an ally of Russia in Syria" is a rather blunt u-turn in the pro-Iranian policy that the Russians adopted since September 2018, when a Russian plane was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft missile during an Israeli strike.

Another positive development from Israel's point of view, also in the northern arena, is the Foreign Policy report that the US has decided to leave a small force at the al-Tanf base on the Syrian-Iraqi border, close to the Jordan frontier.

This site is actually an airport and the base of operations for US and UK special and air forces. Its main importance is its proximity to the central road leading from Baghdad to Damascus and from there to Lebanon. It is one of the two main arteries through which the Iranians have attempted to open a land corridor from Tehran to the Damascus area via Iraq, and from Damascus on to Lebanon.

American troops in Syria (Photo: AP)

The presence of the Americans and the British at the al-Tanf base allows the Western Allies to control the traffic along the main road, and prevent the Iranians from using the road freely as part of their prospective land. US President Donald Trump's decision to leave the al-Tanf base intact, with a small number of troops deployed there, means that the land corridor will still be blocked, which is certainly good news for Israel. In the IDF, there was a real fear that the Americans would quit this base and the entire ground corridor would be open to the Revolutionary Guards to transfer people and weapons to Syria and Lebanon. It is reasonable to assume that Trump's decision to leave the base active stems not only from pressure from Israel but Jordan and Saudi Arabia too.

The third positive development for Israel is the agreement reached between Qatar and the United Nations with Hamas and the other Palestinian organizations for the transfer of Qatari money. Not only will money be transferred to Hamas, but most of the funding will be used by the UN to bankroll humanitarian projects throughout the Strip. The money means that Hamas can also bolster its own image and avoid any confrontation with other organizations in the Gaza Strip, while showing that it will not sell the resistance in exchange for its employees' salaries.

Palestinians in Gaza queue for funds donated by Qatar

Israel can also claim that it will not pay protection money to Hamas and buy quiet at the border fence with Qatari money. We still need to see how this whole mechanism will work, but it is clear that the United Nations is the conduit through which humanitarian assistance should be provided to the Gaza Strip.

Hamas may have proven that it is less corrupt than Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement, but it does not know how to govern or manage the Gaza Strip. Fatah and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, on the other hand, have proven that they know how to govern and more or less manage civilian matters for the benefit of the population. It is difficult to say which is worse — a corrupt organization like Fatah but which has governance skills, or a less corrupt organization like Hamas, which has no ability to govern the Gaza Strip which it controls by force.

The only thing Hamas really knows how to do is take action against Israel, and it uses the citizens of the Gaza Strip for that purpose. It is fair to say, therefore, the transfer of funds with the help of the UN certainly benefits the security of Israel and the calm in the Gaza area.

Qatari envoy Mohammed al-Emadi in Gaza

  

One must remember, however, that just as the situation on the ground has shifted, it could all shift back again within the space of a day or even just a few hours.

Israelis live in an unstable region where many actors, including superpowers both large and regional, are constantly working to promote their own interests. In such a situation, stability is a scarce resource in the Middle East. Just as Israel should never rest on its laurels when things go well, it must also never panic when things take a turn for the worse on security. Israelis may live in a rough neighborhood but their home is well-protected.

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Hamas' poker face

Let us deviate for a moment beyond the boundaries of the Israeli discourse, and take a look at recent events in Gaza from the Hamas perspective: The third tranche of desperately needed Qatari money was delayed for more than two weeks, even while they showed restraint and politely explained to Egypt politely that the provocations on the Gaza-Israel border were the work of Islamic Jihad, and they refrained from responding with rocket fire despite the fact that a person had been killed in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas leaders live alongside their own people, and Gaza is at the moment a pressure cooker of civil servants who last received a salary in August, those expecting a $100 payout from the Qatari money, the bitter sourpusses who are not on any list for a handout, and the ideologues who think the whole business is a fire sale of Palestine and accuse Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar of turning into replicas of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Waiting for money from the Qatari funds in Gaza

This money-transfer arrangement with Hamas is a responsible one intended to prevent another round of fighting in Gaza in which Israel has no interest. The problem is in the execution. The negotiations with Hamas were conducted amateurishly, and the startling agreements reached at the beginning (the cash dollars, the salaries for Hamas activists, the failure to insist on an absolute cessation of violence) are difficult to alter now. The Qataris are now far less enthusiastic about the mobile ATM they have set up — even if tens of millions here and there do not bother them much, they are beginning to understand that Gaza is a bottomless pit, especially when it comes to electricity.

What is more, transferring the cash directly to Hamas puts the Qararis at risk of finding themselves on blacklists for supporters of terrorism. And in return for all of this, they are on the receiving of end of abuse on social media from ordinary, unappreciative Palestinians who accuse them of collaborating with Israel.

Protests on the Gaza-Israel border fence (Photo: EPA)

Netanyahu has elections looming and Sinwar knows that he could work this to his advantage. But Hamas also has its own public opinion to worry about, and some of its members did not like the Qatari arrangement. These disgruntled activists cut the leadership some slack, however, especially since some of them got to benefit from the money.

The new delays and conditions imposed on Gaza by Israel were interpreted as humiliating. The "March of Return," which began about 10 months ago, was a move born out of desperation but with a much greater goal - to break the siege on the Gaza Strip once and for all, and, in the eyes of Hamas, to significantly improve the economic situation.

Salaries, electricity, development projects and medicines all need money and the Hamas leadership does not want to stand with their hands out month after month for a meager $15 million grant, which is a drop in the ocean when it comes to Gazans' urgent needs.

For now, Hamas is playing its hand close to its chest, and the question now is — will Israel fold first?  

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While Israel and Iran were fighting

Only Syrian President Bashar Assad remains silent in the midst of the drama that followed this week's skirmish between the Israel Defense Forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's elite Quds Force.

Israel launched a massive attack on Iranian targets in Syria in the early hours of Monday, the day after Iranian fighters fired a surface-to-surface rocket at the northern Golan Heights. The Israeli bombardment, which targeted an airport in Damascus, killed 12 pro-regime fighters, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring organization.

Syrian President Bashar Assad (Photo: Reuters)

This war is being waged on his soil, but without him. Assad has failed to issue official statements and refrains from interfering in the rounds of fighting between Israel and its archenemy Iran in his territory. It seems he has decided to let the big players make their moves, while he stands by and uses his time to deal with domestic issues.

Truth be told, the Syrian president is rather busy with restoring and expanding his rule in Syria. He is on the verge of claiming victory over his enemies, he managed to fend off Turkey's intent to launch an offensive to break Kurdish control over the Syria-Turkey border, and he is working to restore his sovereignty over northern Syria.

And so, all at once, those who called to remove the embattled president from power have fallen silent. Iran is giving him full freedom of action, Russia's Putin is considered his strongest ally, and even Israel has long since dropped the idea of taking him down since he has no replacement in sight.

It appears Jerusalem is comfortable with Assad being around. Had it not been for the Iranian presence in Syria, Assad would never have dared to come out against the Jewish state.

IAF attack overnight Monday near Damascus (Photo: EPA)

Nevertheless, the Syrian army hosting Iranian "consultants" is a big problem for Israel. The Quds Force, which is in charge of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' overseas operations, is dragging the Syrian troops into its ongoing battle against Israel, and Assad is giving Tehran an almost carte blanche in Syrian bases, putting arms depots at its disposal and allowing Iranian aircraft to freely enter Syrian skies.

Two months ago, Assad was embroiled in a crisis that threatened to tear Syria apart. And look at him now—the Arab world is courting him, and Egypt is quietly working to reinstate Syria into the Arab League, with the Persian Gulf states tending to back this move.

Syria's main problem remains Saudi Arabia. The Riyadh royals have yet to make a definite decision on whether to welcome Syria back into the bosom of the divided Arab world and reopen the Arab embassies in Damascus, or to continue arming those opposing the Syrian regime in order to hurt Iran.

It has been three weeks since Assad made a public appearance in Damascus, or had a "surprise" meeting with Syrian civilians in locations that underwent a thorough security inspection. Assad prefers to stay in his palace with his sick wife Asma and his children, until the fighting between Israel and Iran settles down.

Asma, Bashar Assad

Once the fighting is over, then it is safe to assume that Assad will reappear to flash his people the victory sign, proving to the world he believes in his own triumph as Syria's ruler.

In the meantime, the president is holding meetings at his palace with senior military officials and public figures known for their policy of "sitting quietly."

In fact, just three days ago, it was reported that several Syrian intellectuals had been invited to meet with the great leader who seems to have a lot of time on his hands.

In between meetings, Assad reportedly received calls from Iranian officials and representatives of the Russian army updating him on what is happening on the frontier with Israel.

It was said that during one of this call, Assad was informed about Syrian accomplices helping the "enemy," and in response send his special forces to deal with those accomplices.

Nevertheless, the war in Syria has changed over the past two years. The Syrian army and the Iranian troops in the war-battered country have become more united.

The decision whether to bolster this unity is not Assad's to make. As far as Assad is concerned, he has most to gain from this war. The stability of his rule is no longer in danger, at least for now.

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A better way to benefit the people of Gaza

The situation in Gaza is horrific. Actually, worse than that. Gazans have been deprived of electricity, water, jobs and salaries; they were stripped of their self-respect and parental authority, and some Gazans say that hope for a better future has also been taken away. The humanitarian crisis is already here: two million people drowning in existential despair are on the brink of explosion.

 

Despite the convenient metaphor, Gaza is not a pressure cooker from which excess pressure can be released through a valve or lifting a lid. The explosive situation in Gaza cannot be resolved only by opening and closing the Erez border crossing, or by occasional Israeli decisions to expand Gaza’s fishing area to nine nautical miles.

Perhaps many would like to see Gaza disappear, sinking into the depths of oblivion. Nobody seems to like Gaza, no one wants Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu himself recently said that if Gaza could be handed over to anyone, he might have supported its reoccupation. Rumor has it, that Gazans claim that even God does not like Gaza. 

Damage caused by IAF strike in Gaza (Photo: Reuters)

But Gaza is here to stay. And as much as it is being isolated and placed behind high fences and thick walls of repression, Gaza finds itself yet again in the heart of regional politics. Gaza is a regional issue and since any clash in Gaza might ignite the whole region, many regional players find themselves involved in Gaza, each having its own interests and considerations—not out of love for Gaza, but out of concern for itself.

The main protagonists in this drama are Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Israel and Egypt, who have different and at times conflicting interests in Gaza. Such a situation poses difficulties in dealing with the humanitarian crisis and achieving stability and security.

Ostensibly, there is not much to expect from other foreign actors involved in Gaza. Any such foreign actor—Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the UN, the EU, and the US—uses Gaza to advance domestic and regional interests. Erdoğan uses the situation in Gaza to provoke Israel and make political gains at home while positioning himself as an important leader in the Muslim world. Qatar is using its support of Gaza to gain advantage in the Gulf and position itself in the region. For the part of the EU and UN agencies, the situation in Gaza may really matter, but they do not have the political power to change reality (luckily and most recently, the UN was able to act as an effective mediator alongside Egypt and help prevent another round of violence). This is also the case regarding other actors.

However, even if they do not really care about Gaza, the fact that Gaza has become a usable political-public currency, is perhaps its greatest source of political power. The vested interests that foreign players have in Gaza can be a good starting point for a change in reality. The main challenge, therefore, is to mobilize such actors to advance their interest in Gaza while improving the quality of life for Gazans.

One important steps to be taken to this effect is to shift from a donor model to an investment model. The donor model, such as the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) that meets every year since 1993, or ad-hoc conferences that gather to discuss the rehabilitation of Gaza following yet another round of fighting, provides Gaza with only so much money, while donors have almost no responsibility for the effective use of their money. On the other hand, designing an investment mechanism requires investors to be involved in managing their funds. The investment model leads to increased involvement and increased interest in stability, and creates favorable conditions to support each investment.

It is not a magic solution, just another tool, but an important one. The more players invest in Gaza, the greater the chances that Gaza will not sink.

Dr. Roee Kibrik is Director of Research at Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.

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A political plot to silence racism in ultra-Orthodox society

In recent weeks, after election polling started to emerge, an idea to unify all ultra-Orthodox parties started gaining momentum. Such a move would see the United Torah Judaism party, which represent various different Hasidic groups and the Lithuanian Orthodox public, and Shas, which represents the Mizrahi religious public, would reside under one roof.

 

That’s not all: this newly united ultra-Orthodox party would also absorb Eli Yishai, former Shas head who formed his own party, and the ultra-Orthodox Jerusalemites. Yes, the same Jerusalemite extremists that most of the ultra-Orthodox public has shunned.

Deputy Health Minister Yaakov Litzman, United Torah Judaism, and Shas leader Aryeh Deri

But why unite now? Shas was initially established in the 1980s because of racism its Mizrachi public had suffered at the hands of the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox leadership.

Knesset members from the Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah factions that make up United Torah Judaism, have been repeating messages about the importance of a union over and over for the past two weeks. They tell anyone who will listen how this consolidation would bring love and fellowship in the ultra-Orthodox sector. Some even went so far as to call the prospective union “the big Haredi bang,” or “the days of the Messiah.”

But behind theses slogans lies great hypocrisy, demonstrated perfectly by the October municipal elections that revealed raging racism in Haredi cities. Not to mention racism in educational institutions, that leave hundreds of Mizrahi ultra-Orthodox girls with no institution to attend— until the media or Mizrahi public leaders intervene.

These were the exact reasons why the Shas party was created to begin with.

Racism against Sephardic Jews among the general public has lessened since the 1980s, but it never truly disappeared. In fact, among the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox public it only strengthened. In many Haredi cities, the Ashkenazi public prevents Mizrahi families from residing in their buildings and calls them by derogatory names.

A Shas 2015 election poster: “A Mizrahi votes for a Mizrahi” (Photo: Shas party)

As a journalist who works in the Haredi world, I experienced racism from my Ashkenazi colleagues more than once. Even when I cover Knesset events as a political writer, I am sometimes met with disrespect from public servants and their team, just because I’m a modern Mizrahi, because I’m not like them.

It sounds bad, but unfortunately that’s how things are—even if not everyone in the ultra-Orthodox public behaves like this. The horrible rift in the ultra-Orthodox world is lead by the Ashkenazis. Shas tried to thrive in spite of those elites who humiliated Sephardic Jews because of their ancestry.

The idea to form a union between the two parties is only a means to remove the pesky Shas, which has been a thorn in the Ashkenazi leaders’ collective side for 35 years. This is an Ashkenazi initiative meant to bury the fight against the racism rooted in ultra-Orthodox society.

It recently emerged that the leader of the Council of Torah Sages and Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Shalom Cohen objects to the unification between the Haredi parties—for all the reasons I have mentioned here. I sincerely hope that the people who are leading this plot are unable to persuade him otherwise, by pretending that this would be a good move for the ultra-Orthodox public. It isn’t.

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