The Gaza time bomb is still ticking

Throughout Saturday, the new post of the IDF high command had the tense feeling that a time bomb was ticking somewhere nearby. All eyes were fixed on the screens and the data that the Southern Command was receiving from the field. The planes waited, fueled and armed.

 

The order for troops to begin moving out from staging points towards the Gaza Strip was closer than ever, and everyone in the room could feel it.

Sometime during the afternoon, the ticking stopped. Just like in an action thriller, someone had cut the right wire with seconds to spare before the explosion. All of the players - Hamas, Israel and the Egyptians - breathed a sigh of relief.

IDF troops along the Gaza border, March 30, 2019 (Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)

The Egyptians were able to find a convergence point between Israeli and Hamas interests at least for the next few days, perhaps even until after the April 9 elections. But the detonator is still attached and the charge is still hot – the countdown could resume at any point. Therefore, the entire army is still on alert in the south, in the north and in the West Bank.

In a moment of sanity, both sides have assumed a gradual process of normalization, which could even be extended – incrementally – to last for more than a year.

In other words, in the final seconds before the blast, the two parties returned to the point on the board at which they stood in the immediate aftermath of Operation Protective Shield in 2014, with the same "phased plan" for calm.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (C) at the Gaza border during the March of Return protests, March 30, 2019

 

In the first stage, Hamas commits itself to stopping the firebombs sent by balloon, the nightly harassment and the flotillas. The demonstrations can continue, but all the organizations active in the Gaza Strip have promised the Egyptians that they will create a security cordon to prevent demonstrators from reaching the security fence - as was the case on Saturday.

It turns out that of the tens of thousands who took part in the demonstrations, almost 20% were "stewards" whose job was to prevent the masses from nearing the fence.

In fact, before the protests began, the Egyptians - at the request of Hamas - summoned representatives from all the organizations, including Islamic Jihad, and received a pledge that everyone - not just Hamas - would send "stewards."

Palestinian protests along Gaza fence, March 30, 2019. Stewards in orange tabards kept people away from the fence (Photo: AFP)

  

As for the "mistaken" firing of long-range rockets into Israel, Hamas has promised the Egyptians - and has already launched - a comprehensive review of the firing locations and to correct all the "mishaps" and check the "procedures."

Failure to do so, the Egyptians declared, would mean settling accounts with us after the next so-called mishap, and not with the Israelis.

For its part, Israel committed to immediately returning the crossings in to Gaza to normal operations and to send in fuel in order to restart the electricity turbines in the Strip. (Some of the Gaza turbines are not currently working because the substitute for Israeli fuel caused blockages and breakdowns.

Israeli trucks carrying goods into the Gaza Strip, March 31, 2019 (Photo: Barel Efraim)

 

Hamas has now received a permit to start repairing the turbines and operating them with the fuel that is now coming in from Israel. The Jewish state has also committed to increasing the supply of water into Gaza, and doubling its amount of electricity.

Hamas has also been pledged $30 million per month for the next six months, which will go towards public works as part of UN projects, and Israel has promised to allow Hamas to export agricultural goods not only to the West Bank but also to Israel and Europe. The fishing zone off the Gaza coast will also be extended to 12-15 nautical miles, except in the southern and northern Strip.

So far the first stage is also the test phase. If either side fails, the time bomb will begin ticking once again. To the IDF's credit, in must be said that the command that came down from the chief of staff on Saturday - to show maximum restraint - was meticulously followed.

Israel knew on Friday about the agreements Hamas reached with the Egyptians. The terror group's first test were the Saturday demonstrations, with the Israeli defense establishment giving the organization an opportunity to stand by these agreements, despite the breaches.

Palestinians clash with IDF troops at the Gaza border during the March of Return protests, March 30, 2019 (Photo: Haim Horenstein)

  

The number of IDF snipers deployed along the border was three times higher than in previous weeks, but the number of shots fired was much lower than the average Friday at the Gaza fence.

Israel has also known for years what the next stages will be in the understandings with Hamas, which are planned to be implemented after the elections: projects to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip, renew the infrastructure for water and electricity supplies, housing and sewage, increase employment and more.

At this stage, the sides will deal with the issue of POWs and MIAs. It all depends, as it has for the past four years, on political, security and diplomatic developments. Can there be quiet? Is there even the will? Perhaps there is, and perhaps the two sides will get there without the need for yet another round of fighting. Time will tell.

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Israel has no way of winning in Gaza

I am sorry to say that even as the election campaign enters its home stretch, none of the candidates has the courage to speak the truth about the Gaza Strip: Hamas cannot be defeated.

 

This terrorist organization is far behind us in every military aspect and there is no room for comparison. The IDF is equipped with the most modern technology: forces from the air, land and sea could precisely hit and destroy any target in the Gaza Strip from miles away. Yet Hamas is invincible, and that is the truth.

The Viet Cong ambushed the Americans in the jungles of Vietnam, and for years the Pentagon sent more and more troops - hundreds of thousands - to the battlefield, but this too did not help them win.

The Viet Cong was embedded into the civilian population and made good use of their expertise in fighting in the jungle, but foremost they were fighting for their country, their Ideology and way of life. The series "The Vietnam War" by renowned documentarian Ken Burns (now on Netflix) is a must-see for every politician who has a say on how Israel responds to Gaza.

IDF footage showing Hamas target in Gaza destroyed

Invading Gaza will be like fighting in the jungles of Vietnam. The IDF's technological advantage will diminish in the maze of tunnels that Hamas has dug. The terror group may ask for a temporary cease-fire, but will never surrender, and Israel - subjected to relentless rocket fire, loss of life and damage to property - will agree to such a truce. It will be a rerun of Operation Protective Edge in 2014 and all the other military operations in Gaza that came before. And that, too, is the truth.

It seems that this is the reason why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cautious when unleashing the IDF's military might on Gaza. One good thing that I can say about Netanyahu is that he is the only of the candidates who is not making unrealistic video clips with the saying "Let the IDF win."  

Even so, he lacks the courage of leader, like the courage late prime minister Ariel Sharon had when he came up with and gained public opinion for the disengagement from Gaza.

HIs plan was premature because it had no strategic aim. We did the right thing by leaving the Gaza Strip, but the way we did it without coordinating with the Palestinian Authority was wrong.

A courageous leader should say that Hamas in Gaza cannot be defeated, that those launching firebombs attached to balloons or guerrilla fighters hiding in tunnels cannot be defeated.

Hamas wants to rule Gaza and that is why we need to negotiate with Hamas. Not by sending suitcases filled with cash but with the mediation of Egypt and the aid of the oil rich Gulf states.

We need a long-term cease fire agreement that would include building houses and infrastructure in Gaza. We will not reach a peace deal with Hamas, but we will be able to live next to them in peace.

The balance of terror will be mutual like the balance of terror we have with Hezbollah in Lebanon. But it is our fate to always live by our sword.

The IDF will continue to build its strength, and our iron fist will never unclench. It will forever be a fist ready to strike our enemies. We will strike, destroy and kill them but without returning to the alleyways of Gaza City.

Everyone knows this but no one is willing to go out and say it in public. That is what a real leader is about, but as of now I do not see one.

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Israel and Hamas owe Egypt their gratitude

Saturday saw the largest demonstration since the March of Return protests began a year ago. More than 40,000 people took part, despite the inclement weather. Three Palestinians were killed during confrontations with Israeli troops, and another died of his injuries Saturday morning after being wounded during an attack on a Hamas position.  

Ten months ago, a similar demonstration took place in the Gaza Strip on Nakba Day. It ended with more than 60 dead and Hamas did not fire a single rocket in retaliation.

Palestinians clash with IDF troops at the Gaza border during the March of Return protests, March 30, 2019 (Photo: EPA)

This time four people were killed and the response came in the form of five rockets fired into open areas in the Gaza border area. The IDF responded with a number of artillery strikes on observation posts along the fence - the most minor response in its toolbox. Both sides claimed victory, and thus on Sunday morning were able to return to negotiations on the understandings that will lead to a period of calm.

So what has changed? One word - Egypt. At the Nakba Day demonstration, senior Egyptian intelligence officials were not in the area. Hamas let everyone run wild and it ended with dozens dead.

Palestinians clash with IDF troops at the Gaza border during the March of Return protests, March 30, 2019 (Photo: Haim Horenstein)

In the past 72 hours, the Egyptians have not taken a break from their shuttle diplomacy between Tel Aviv and Gaza, seeking to prevent a repeat of last week and a possible military operation - and in the end everyone was able to breathe a sigh of relief. There was also relief in the office of Yahya Sinwar (Haniyeh's no longer exists) in Gaza and in the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

   

By Thursday night, Hamas had done everything possible to bring out as many people as possible to the demonstrations, including holding talks with the heads of local clans to ensure maximum turnout in the field. But by Friday afternoon, according to a source in Gaza, the tables were turned upside down.

Hamas was working with the clans to ensure that the march was not too successful. The organization wanted a large number of demonstrators at the fence, but not so many that they lost control.

Palestinians at the Gaza border during the March of Return protests, March 30, 2019 (Photo: AFP)

As such, the heads of the clans were instructed to be there but to water down their attendance at the demonstrations. At the same time, some of the centers of activity were moved a few hundred meters back to ensure that most people remained at a distance.

And for the first time, stewards could be seen sporting orange tabards. They were Hamas civilian servants – the ones receiving the dollars brought into Gaza from Qatar - who were recruited for the purpose of keeping order.

 

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (C) at the Gaza border during the March of Return protests, March 30, 2019

The restraint more or less worked, and the demonstrations ended with a tolerable outcome for both sides. Furthermore, the Egyptians were in the area of the protests throughout the day - both overtly and covertly.

The understandings are the child of many parents, with Egypt as the fair broker, Qatar as the ATM, the United Nations as the contractor and Israel as the green light for bringing it everything into the Gaza Strip – the money and construction materials, fuel for the power station and another stretch of sea off the Gaza coast for fishing.

Yahya Sinwar (L) and Ismail Haniyeh (C) at the March of Return protests in Gaza, March 30, 2019

For its part, Hamas is supposed to end the nighttime confrontations it has identified as the soft belly of Israel, as well as the incendiary devices attached to balloons. The March of Return protests will continue, but, according to the understandings, are expected to be non-violent.

Deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, who lives in Beirut and is not seen as particularly dovish, announced at the end of the Saturday demonstrations that he expects the agreement to be finalized and signed in the coming days. And if al-Arouri is saying it, then that's probably the direction in which this is headed. Even so, it is vital to en sure that Islamic Jihad and its leader Ziad Nahala are also pleased with the emerging deal.

Egyptian intelligence officer Gen. Ahmed Abdel-Khalek and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh

If this is indeed the case, then the matter should be settled by the middle of the week - until the next flare up. And if not, Hamas always has next Friday, four days before the polls open, to pin Israel against the wall. Sinwar knows it, the IDF knows it and the Egyptians know it. Meanwhile, Israel should be sending a thank you bouquet to Ahmed Abdel-Khalek, the Egyptian intelligence officer who mans the Palestinian desk, who is very much responsible for the fact that at this very moment Israel and Hamas are not deep into yet another round of violence.

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Donald Trump's gift to Bashar Assad

On Monday, the White House invited a herd of journalists and photographers into the Oval Office to commemorate the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his guest, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This meeting marked an historic moment for the prime minister, no less, when the United States recognized Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights. But this photo opportunity had an unexpected consequence - a boost for none other than Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump show off the US declaration of recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights (Photo: EPA)

During the civil war in Syria, Assad murdered close to half a million men, women and children and turned some seven million people into refugees. On occasion, the Syrian leader used even chemical weapons on his own people.

But after Trump's tweet last weekend, the mass murderer became a recognized leader with sweeping international support from European countries, Russia and China, who have already announced that they are absolutely opposed to the American move to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

This is not merely a declaratory process. Bashar Assad should have been indicted for genocide in the International Court of Justice in The Hague, but instead he will receive international aid aimed at keeping him in power.

Syrians at a refugee camp (Photo: AP)

Now, the Russians will invest tremendous efforts in rebuilding the Syrian army. Iran will continue to tighten its grip on Syria, and the Arab countries together with European nations will give Assad the international umbrella that will signal to the Trump administration that it must respect the world order.

In other words: the status of an occupied territory can change only through an international agreement, not through a unilateral declaration by one country.

Many Israelis feel that the country must take advantage of the fact that there is a president in the White House who is willing to stand by the Jewish state in every situation, but they must not underestimate the validity of international institutions.

  

Syrians in Quneitra protesting Trump's declaration (Photo: AFP)

After Trump, there will be a new US president, who with one tweet can also overturn a large part of his predecessor's policies. What then?

Furthermore, Israelis must remember that the country was founded by two moves: the United Nations partition plan that recognized the Jewish settlement in Palestine, and an operational plan based on the concept of claiming the land acre by acre. In other words the state was established by active Zionism, not merely a collection of empty words and declarations.

For years an active approach formed the basis for negotiations between Israeli prime ministers and its neighbors, in order to reach agreements over the country's permanent borders.

Israelis at a Golan Heights tourist spot (Photo: AFP)

 

Netanyahu tried to reach an agreement with late Syrian leader Hafez Assad in 1999, and again with his son and successor Bashar Assad in 2010. He intended to include the return of the Golan Heights in a peace agreement that would include the establishment of an Israeli embassy in Damascus. There is no way Netanyahu can possibly deny that he was prepared to give up the Golan in exchange for Israelis eating hummus in Damascus.

But now we have American recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, just in time to help Netanyahu win his fifth term as prime minister.

Yehuda Harel, the pioneer of settling the Golan, already said after Trump's tweet that the Golan Heights would remain under Israeli sovereignty not because of a decision made by whoever is sitting in the prime minister's residence, but rather by those who cling to its harsh rocky land. Aagain, declarations do not create facts on the ground.

It is very possible that the American declaration is the actually the start of the countdown for the return of the Golan Heights to Syria, either through negotiations or renewed Syrian hostilities against Israeli targets, backed by Russia and Iran.

Those who want to prevent further bloodshed on the border must strive for agreements backed by international recognition. The concept of "a nation dwelling alone" cannot replace recognition from the rest of the world.

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A little request for peace from southern Israel

As a person who was born and who has lived all of her life in southern Israel, I had no other choice but to get used to the twisted reality that disrupts my life. The same reality that paralyzes me with fear every time I get into my car because I will be helpless should the air raid alarm sound. Because of this reality I think twice before taking a shower. Its is a depressing reality.

 

For too many years, we in the south have not known what is to have a normal routine. Instead we have rockets, balloons with firebombs attached, and - every now again - a cease-fire. Amd then it all starts again from the beginning. It is a nightmarish routine.

Residents of southern Israel protesting the security situation (Photo: Avi Rokah)

  

When the first rocket "accidently" landed in central Israel, I must confess I was a tiny bit happy. I said to myself, "now it is going to end."

For when a rocket lands even "accidentally" in central Israel, there is a response that includes an urgent cabinet meeting, live news broadcasts into the night, the deployment of IDF units and thoughts and prayers for the people affected.

Tanks on the Gaza border

This week I was horrified by the destruction caused by the rocket that hit a house in Mishmeret.

It was miraculous that no one was seriously injured.

The Mishmeret home destroyed in a rocket strike from Gaza (Photo: Yair Sagi)

But I'm tired of praying for miracles. I want action!

And when the rockets began falling on the south again - as expected - we never got the same reaction. 

In reality, no one cares when residents in the south are constantly running for shelters - not even Culture Minister Miri Regev who dismissed us all with a simple: "So what if Ashkelon is under fire?"

A young resident of Kibbutz Nir-Am filmed herself crying as she huddled in a bomb shelter with her dog

So how am I supposed to feel now? My parents came to this country out of pure Zionism, and are now having second thoughts about life here after the elections. 

I think it is time for someone to take matters into their own hands and find a permanent solution for the people in the south. A real solution that will bring peace to our little corner of the world. I don't think that it's really too much to ask.

Adar Gandelsman is a resident of Ashkelon and Miss Universe Israel 2017

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Sinwar's knockout victory over Netanyahu

"We are back in control of the situation," Benjamin Netanyahu said as he departed from Washington on Monday, as if there had been an event back home that demanded his urgent care.

 

For doing what he actually did in Gaza, Netanyahu could have definitely stayed in the US, delivered his AIPAC speech and given an interview in his fancy English. Even Immigration and Absorption Minister Yoav Galant could have handled the events in Gaza, such as they were.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump at the White House (Photo: Reuters)

Five years have passed since 2014's Operation Protective Edge. Five years in which our "Mr. Security" has not done a single thing to match the achievements of the military operation on the political Level.

Instead, he has let Hamas' leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar do whatever he pleases. For when Sinwar wants peace, there is peace, and when he wants war, there is war. Everyone in Gaza must surely be familiar with Netanyahu's drill by now: We bomb them, they rocket us, and the prime minister agrees to a cease-fire.

Air strikes on the Gaza Strip on Monday night (Photo: AFP)

For years - and especially in the past year - residents of the south have been living through a never-ending nightmare of uncertainty. No one in Netanyahu's government cares for them.

It is absurd for southerners to wish for missiles on central Israel merely so that warplanes will be ordered out of their hangars. Even in the midst of the latest round of hostilities they offered to withstand rocket attacks and stay in shelters until Hamas was defeated.

The residents of southern Israel have learned from bitter experience. They too know that "Mr. Security" has nothing to offer. And what is worse is that he has no desire to resolve the situation in Gaza.

Which has led is to where we are now. For not wanting to do anything leads to an enemy on the other side of the Gaza fence that is only getting stronger, is not afraid to launch rockets of ever-increasing range, and is more than familiar with Netanyahu's habit of delivering a blow from the air, flexing his muscles and rushing to declare a cease-fire.

The house in Mishmeret demolished by the rocket

The only good thing that can be said about Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza mess is that he doesn't let the show drag on for too long, and quickly ceases fire. He knows that there no clear end to this movie and therefore prefers to shout "cut" after the first scene.

When Netanyahu signed the 2011 deal for the release IDF soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity, he probably did not predict that one of the prisoners he freed for the hostage - Yahya Sinwar - would become the bitterest of rivals and lay bare his inability to protect his country.

Sinwar brought a new kind of leadership to Gaza and turned Hamas into an organization that calls the shots. On the other side, Netanyahu has lead Israel to a policy of retaliation and instead of initiation.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar

As of now, in the battle between Netanyahu and Sinwar, the latter has won by a knockout. He is teaching his people and the rest of the leaders in the region that you can launch rockets at Israel and ultimately ou will get a suitcase full of money. Every time Sinwar does this, he further erodes Israel's standing, and further illuminates how empty the prime minister's policies are when it comes to our enemies in the south.

Netanyahu was probably walking the red carpets of the White House and embracing the leader of the free world while Sinwar was hiding in a tunnel from Israeli airstrikes. But while Netanyahu may have been playing a winner on TV, the real victor was not him.

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Egypt is Israel and Hamas' reluctant mediator

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu debated Monday whether to return to Israel from Washington due to the security situation with Hamas in Gaza, he made several encrypted phone calls in order to thoroughly understand the Egyptian role in the situation.

He needed to know where Cairo stood with regards to Gaza, what kind of ceasefire they were working towards, what their intelligence assessments said. He probably even spoke directly to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the UN General Assembly, September 2018

 

Sisi has a long history with Hamas and the trouble it causes, dating back to his previous roles as military governor in northern Sinai, head of Egyptian intelligence, and defense minister. He knows the ins and outs of the Hamas efforts to bond with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist movement that led Egypt before him - a group that he despises.

It isn’t a secret that the Egyptian president doesn’t believe anything Hamas says. His senior advisors, who have been managing the negotiations with Gaza, despise the Hamas leadership and make no effort to hide it.

But what Sisi wants is quiet on his side of the Gaza border, and thus negotiations are in his best interests. He wants no more attempted infiltrations via the Sinai from Hamas, in order to carry out terror attacks in Egypt.

The Egyptian find their role in this exhausting game frustrating. They are mediating between two sides who don’t believe one another. Hamas makes statements showing Egypt in a positive light, but closely follows the unique relationship Sisi has with US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas believes it was Netanyahu who pushed Sisi into Trump’s arms, but also knows there is no other possible negotiator for their conflict with Israel.

Presidents Sisi and Trump in Saudi Arabia (Photo: AP)

  

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan doesn’t have the access that Egypt has, and has disputes with both Israel and Egypt. Qatar is more ATM machine than mediator. (On Tuesday, the Qataris said they plan to build Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh a new office, after his Gaza City headquarters were bombed by the IAF on Monday night.)

The Egyptians understand that Netanyahu wants quiet until the April 9 elections. Cairo sees Netanyahu as keeping his seat as prime minister — in fact, whomever I spoke to in Egypt thought Netanyahu would win, and all quickly stressed the importance of this unique, secretive relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian leaders.

Indeed, when Sisi took office four years ago, he wanted nothing whatsoever to do with whatever Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Israel were fighting about. He wanted to focus on Egypt and its financial woes.

Israel was the one to inform Sisi that if he didn’t take control of the situation, the EU, US or Turkey would be waltzing into the Gaza Strip. They stressed that being the sole mediator has perks for Egypt.

And so Sisi suppressed, but didn’t quite disguise, his loathing towards Hamas. In official meetings, he is businesslike and speaks in English, but behind the scenes and away from the negotiating table, he resorts to blunt swear words in Arabic.

L-R: Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Egypt's President Sisi and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (Photo: Reuters, AP)

During the latest clashes between Israel and Hamas, Cairo tried to persuade Jerusalem to pull its punches in Gaza, to do just enough to cause insult but not real injury. The Egyptians wanted Israel to stick to IAF airstrikes and then depart.

Conversely, the Egyptians did not believe a single word from Hamas regarding their purportedly "erroneous" rocket launches at Israel. Cairo sent strongly worded messages to the organization, warning that if it continued in this vein, Egypt would look the other way when Israel unleashed its vast military capabilities on Hamas.

Egypt is watching both sides carefully. Cairo itself has a single agenda, and that is to establish itself on the global stage. Israel would do well to help with this ambition.

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Golan decree is a diplomatic miracle

A diplomatic miracle occurred this week and it almost went unnoticed. Not because we are indifferent or because it doesn’t excite us, we didn’t notice because our hearts - and rightly so - were with the Wolf family, six members of which were wounded early Monday morning when a rocket sent from Gaza destroyed their house in Moshav Mishmeret (northeast of Tel Aviv). Our hearts were also with the residents of the south who experienced an incredibly difficult 24 hours filled with air-raid sirens, rockets and simply anguish.

 

Nevertheless, as our heads were turned toward the Gaza Strip, thousands of miles from here something happened that only a few years ago would’ve been unimaginable to us. The United States, which remains the world's strongest and most influential power, recognized the sovereignty of the State of Israel over the Golan Heights. It may seem like a symbolic gesture at first, but in truth, it’s not merely a symbolic matter at all, but rather a very significant one.

Trump signing recognition order; Nasrallah

The one who understands this better than anyone is Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who warned in his speech against the precedent that Trump has set by signing this decree. Nasrallah said the move could in the near future lead to similar decisions in East Jerusalem or even the West Bank. And if that sounds absurd to you, think about what a possibility of the American recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights during the Obama administration, or even during the Bush administration. Until Syria became embroiled in a bloody civil war - nearly ten years ago - the pressure on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights, as part of a political agreement, never ceased.

As a child I attended more than a couple of demonstrations protesting the likelihood of withdrawing from the Golan - which was quite conceivable at the time - and here we are today, with the world’s strongest world power officially recognizing it as Israeli territory.

Nasrallah’s concerns are justified. This precedent could establish new facts on the ground about how an area occupied by Israel could eventually become its own territory, under certain circumstances. Of course, this is not true of any area or any circumstances, but it does signify a conceptual revolution in decades of commonly held assumptions about how political borders are defined.

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The Gaza agreement for calm is coming

Amid the IDF troop increases in the south and the current fighting, Egyptian envoy General Ahmed Abd Khalek, who is responsible for the Palestinian issue in his country's intelligence community, will arrive in Gaza on Wednesday or Thursday with a delegation of officers to push ahead the signing of a memorandum of understanding. He will do so at the request of Hamas.

The memorandum is supposed to guarantee quiet in the coming months. It includes rehabilitation work in Gaza on one hand, and on the other, the end to violence along the Gaza fence and the cessation of airborne firebombs and explosive devices. The signing of this memorandum of understanding between Israel and Hamas, if it comes through, will be the dramatic culmination of a protracted effort.

The remains of the office of senior Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza City after it was hit by the IAF (Photo: AFP)

What happened in the last two days in Gaza was not a military event. As such, the main players were the prime minister and the head of the NSC, not the IDF chief of staff. It was a clearly political maneuver, with the Air Force and the IDF playing the role of leverage.

The rocket fired at Moshav Mishmeret was part of the same behind-the-scenes politicking currently taking place, in which Israel, Egypt and Hamas are all participants. And if an agreement is not signed, we will feel the effects on the ground on Saturday, when Hamas marks the first anniversary of the March of Return protests.

The current round of violence actually began at 9pm on March 14, when Khalek was sitting opposite Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. On the table between them was a memorandum of understandings ready for his immediate signature. The document includes a series of Israeli and international commitments to the Gaza Strip, along with Hamas' agreement to a list of conditions set by Israel.

Protests along the Gaza border fence (Photo: EPA)

 

This document was formulated at the beginning of March, following Egyptian shuttle diplomacy between Tel Aviv and Gaza, with National Security Council Director Meir Ben-Shabbat pushing for an agreement from the Israeli side.

One of the most important clauses in the document is a commitment by Hamas to refrain from any violent activity along the fence for a period of about a year. But instead of Sinwar signing the document, at five minutes past 9, Hamas fired two long-range rockets at the Tel Aviv region.

The last thing Sinwar subsequently heard from Khalek was that he was not going to go back to mediation, as long as Hamas refused to accept the conditions of the memorandum and instead kept making new demands. It goes without saying that no one in the Middle East, including Egypt and Hamas members themselves, bought the fairytale that the rockets on the Tel Aviv region were fired by accident. The only ones willing to not only swallow this story but also to disseminate it publicly was Israeli intelligence.

The house on Moshav Mishmeret destroyed by a Gaza rocket

The Egyptians assessed that the rocket fire was deliberately carried out by Hamas in order to improve the terms of the arrangement. "You are alone," the Egyptian general told Sinwar. "Do you want war? Just please don't come crying to us to save you. Do you want to long-term calm? Then let us know when you have accepted the conditions."

Indeed, the Egyptians did not answer Hamas phone calls until Monday evening, when the militant group begged for rescue from Israeli air strikes.

Hamas members had signaled their intention to break the rules last Friday, when they not only renewed their violent activities at the fence, but also renewed their tests of long-range missiles.

Sinwar, as is his wont, thought that Israel would start a war with him two weeks before the elections. And so he went to his comfort zone - exploiting the weaknesses of the Netanyahu government, while also taking his own actions to the wire. Therefore, on Monday, he fired a long-range rocket into the center of Israel while the country was sleeping.

This time Israel did not even deign to talk of mistaken launches. The rocket fire was carried out in the intention of improving the conditions of the arrangement, but also had other objectives in mind. Any Gazans protesting Hamas during an Israeli military operation would be painted as traitors. Indeed, the demonstrations and the organized protests against Hamas' rule have ceased.

When the Israeli Air Force began to attack and Israel threatened a large-scale military operation, Hamas quickly pleaded for rescue from Egypt, and apparently expressed willingness to return to the memorandum, which includes stopping the protests at the fence and the airborne firebombs for an extended period. The Egyptians have not publicly used the term "cease-fire."

IDF troops on the Gaza border (Photo: AFP)

It is reasonable to assume that Benjamin Netanyahu and his staff were not only in touch with the chief of staff and the head of the Shin Bet during his brief US trip, but also with senior Egyptian officials. It was apparently decided not to declare a cease-fire, but to let Hamas sweat and see how it behaves from now on, especially on the anniversary of the March of Return, which was planned as the most violent day of protests along the fence.

Meanwhile, Hamas has reduced the amount of firebombs it is sending across the border tied to balloons. If it passes the test at the weekend, keeps the violence down and signs the memorandum, the IDF will send its troops back to their bases.

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Hamas caught in trap of its own making

It must have been inevitable. Monday’s pre-dawn rocket fire on central Israel occurred just hours before Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, was to deliver a speech, marking a year since the start of the March of Return demonstrations. Although the campaign’s goals were always a little less grandiose than actually returning to pre-Israel Palestine, they were no less ambitious - trying to lift the blockade on Gaza.

A year has passed and Sinwar doesn’t really have anything to say, neither to the ordinary residents of the Strip nor to the loyal Hamas supporters who have demonstrated tirelessly week after week over the past year along the security fence. The economic situation has not improved and the millions in Qatari aid are just a drop in the ocean compared to the needs of Gaza’s residents, some of whom have stopped being afraid and taken to the streets.

The Egyptians - who have been indirectly mediating talks between Gaza and Jerusalem - presented Israel with a list of far-reaching demands from Sinwar, who thought that Netanyahu would try, at any cost, to avoid a military confrontation in Gaza two weeks before the Knesset elections. There is a sense of real distress within Hamas: neither Sinwar nor Ismail Haniyeh can afford to be left empty-handed and drag the masses into another year of useless demonstrations. At this point, it’s a matter of political survival for Hamas.

Destruction in Gaza after IAF attack (Photo: AFP)

The Israeli response to these demands didn’t seem to satisfy Hamas, so Sinwar did what he always does and rolled the dice. Unlike previous rounds of cross-border fighting between Israel and Hamas, this time everything was somewhat low-key. The news of a direct hit by a rocket, which normally triggers outbursts of joy in Gaza, was met with a restrained response, accompanied by apprehension.

A year of security tensions didn’t go unnoticed on the other side as well. In the hours following the rocket fire, with reports of preparations for a wide-scale Israeli operation, the panic in Gaza reached its climax. Gazans stayed inside their homes, since bomb shelters are only available to Hamas officials, and left the doors a little open in order not get hurt from them flying off their hinges during the Israeli Air Force attacks.

The way things look at the moment, it seems as though this formula of limited understandings, restrain and transfer of Qatari cash to Hamas, has exhausted itself. Hamas wants an arrangement that would significantly improve the economic situation in Gaza and lift the blockade, while maintaining its military capability. And due to the growing public criticism about Hamas’s mismanagement of the Strip, the need for an arrangement has become more pressing.

Netanyahu, however, would not be able to give them that deal, even if he wanted to, and not only because of the elections. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is determined to thwart any Israeli deal with Hamas. He has the ability to cut even more of the funds that he transfers to Gaza, which would result in even more instability.

There are those in Israel who believe that in order to come to any kind of arrangement with Hamas, a wide-scale military operation is needed (in order to curb the unrealistic expectations of Gaza’s leaders and bring them back to reality).

The only issue is that Hamas is trapped: They need a notable accomplishment to showboat to Gaza residents, otherwise their rule will be in danger. And in that case, they would prefer to risk defeat against Israel than against their own people.

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A futile endeavor

There has never been a more justified cause for an operation against a terrorist entity than Israel has at the moment, following the launching of rockets from Gaza into southern and central Israel. But the last thing Israel needs is another military campaign that turns into a ground invasion.

 

The first stage has already begun, but we must recall that Israel has already been in this situation. There have been many rockets and the IDF has embarked on multiple campaigns — but nothing has been accomplished. We do not need another war, the results of which are known in advance.

IDF armor near Gaza

Israel’s handling of the Gaza crisis is an ongoing failure. Never before has Israel been so justified and so foolish at the same time. Ad decade has passed and there is still no coherent policy for Gaza. It has been a decade of routine rocket attacks and military campaign after military campaign and now events seem headed for another military campaign that will undoubtedly bring us toward another military campaign in another five years. This is not policy, it is pure folly. It must be said: the blockade of Gaza has not produced results. Hamas has been strengthened even while the life of Gazans has taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Hamas has become even more sophisticated. Their rockets can now reach anywhere in central Israel and will probably soon be able to reach anywhere in Israel.

Troops outside Gaza

And what is Israel doing? It is paying pacification money to Hamas hoping for another few days of calm. And when Israel gets dragged into a round of fighting, it doesn’t strike Hamas very hard but the people of Gaza suffer the consequences; homes are destroyed and women and children injured. And it makes for great public relations for Hamas. It feeds off those images. Hamas has been beating Netanyahu in the propaganda sphere again and again. If the current round of hostilities ends up as a ground war, the results are foreseeable. At first, Western leaders will justify Israel’s actions; declarations of support have already started. After a few days though, the television channels will be broadcasting images of the destruction in Gaza. Major cities in the West will have protests against Israeli “war crimes.”

Destruction following airstrikes in Gaza (Photo: AP)

Anti-Israel organizations will add fuel to the fire and leading newspapers will print harsh condemnations of Israel. The leaders who defended Israel initially will give in to pressure and the UN Security Council will convene and the rest of the story is known: there will be another ceasefire that will look just like all the previous ceasefires and after a week or two, the violent protests will resume, incendiary balloons will e launched into Israel from Gaza and eventually rockets will be fired. A few months will pass, an inquiry commission will publish its conclusions blaming Israel and if all this is evident — why go through it? What is the alternative? An offer of reconciliation, the option of removing the blockade and channeling unprecedented investment to build a sea port in Gaza along with other benefits — all on condition that Hamas agree to disarm or abide by international agreements already formulated by the Quartet. Such an offer won’t change anything as far as the BDS campaigners, and other useful idiots among human rights organizations, are concerned. But it will improve the image of Israel if, after Hamas rejects the offer, Israel embarks on a military campaign, because Hamas has insisted on numerous occasions that their struggle is against the blockade that is chocking the Gaza economy and they “have no choice.” World opinion has defeated Israel time and time again. That weapon must be neutralized before Israel embarks on a campaign. A generous reconciliation offer will not solve the problem, but it will deal a critical blow to Hamas’ propaganda machine. So please, dear leaders, do not embark on a futile military campaign with known results. We must try an alternative approach. And if a ceasefire is indeed achieved, it will not be the best option there is, but it will be the least bad option.

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The IDF is no longer playing by Hamas' rules

The events of Monday night revealed a significant shift in the pattern of the IDF's response to rocket fire from Gaza. Despite Hamas' claims of ceasefires, the army continued to hit targets inside the Strip, putting an end to the equation used since March of last year that "quiet will be met with quiet."

 

This is no longer valid, for it appears that the IDF has a new strategy: Attrition will be met with attrition, escalation will be met with escalation.

IDF troops along the Gaza border (Photo: Reuters)

 

Hamas decided in advance not to engage in heavy exchanges of fire with the IDF when it retaliated to the rocket attack on Moshav Mishmeret.

The terror group realized that an attack on seven people in the heart of Israel - even if no civilians were killed - was a bridge too far, and reined in its return fire.

Moshav Mishmeret home destroyed in a Gaza rocket strike (Photo: Moti Kimchi)

The decision to stick to attacks on the Gaza border area shows that Hamas and Islamic Jihad came to the conclusion that Israel would respond very differently to a devastating attack on the central Dan region that it would to a similar attack on a Gaza border community.

Indeed, when the Israeli attacks began, short-range barrages of rockets - mostly Qassams - were fired at Sderot and other communities in the Gaza area, as well as at Netivot and Ofakim.

Hamas thought that by limiting its response, it would - as with previous rounds of fighting - be able to turn to Egypt for a ceasefire, and that Israel, even if it did not explicitly say so, would follow the "quiet will be met with quiet" formula. This did not happen.

The terror group on Monday night announced to the media and across the social networks that it had reached an agreement with the Egyptians for a ceasefire that would begin at 22:00, but it had again failed to read the situation correctly.

Devastation in Gaza after IAF strikes (Photo: EPA)

Israel for the first time in a year refused to play the game, and IDF aircraft - as well as tanks and naval ships - continued to hit targets within the Strip even after the Hamas-declared cease-fire went into effect.

Hamas then tried to again return to the formula of quiet for quiet and at 3am halted fire. BY that point it had only fired about 60 rockets at Israel, a relatively small number compared to previous rounds. And even though Hamas had stopped firing, the IDF attacked again three hours later.

Hamas could see that the IDF's pattern had changed, and despite the 6am strikes, it has since refrained from launching any rockets at all.

As part of this new modus operandi, the IDF is in no hurry. It is attacking targets slowly and systematically in the Gaza Strip with two main goals in mind: hurting Hamas' military capabilities and infrastructure, and striking into the group's a consciousness that Israel will not hesitate to harm its regime and its political power bases.

The message is that if Hamas escalates the provocations against Israel, it will endanger the survival of its regime in the Gaza Strip - not only because of what the IDF will do to it with the assistance of the Shin Bet security service, but also because the population of the Gaza Strip will understand that Hamas is not achieving it.

The IDF bombing last night damaged military installations belonging to both Hamas intelligence and naval forces. This was followed by attacks on two dual-use buildings in Gaza City - both symbols of power used by Hamas's internal security forces and intelligence services.

Gazans inspect a demolished building after IAF strikes overnight (Photo: AP)

The strikes on these buildings, which every Gaza resident recognized as symbols of the Hamas government – first and foremost the office building where Ismail Haniyeh's office was located - was a clear act of dominance. And that was not the end of the story.

It is not yet clear long Israel will persist with this new pattern of slow-burning attrition and readiness to launch a large-scale operation if Hamas escalates its rocket and mortar fire. That is up to the prime minister and his security advisors. Nonetheless, the preparations made by the IDF in the past two days, in particular the decision to deploy the Golani Brigade and two tank divisions to the Gaza border, as well as the mobilization of reservists from air defense and intelligence units, indicate that the IDF is ready and prepared for a round of fighting that that will last several days, including the possible entrance of ground troops into Gaza. The mere deployment of these forces and the mobilization of reservists - which comes with a steep bill - is another signal to Hamas and Islamic Jihad that the IDF is prepared to go far this time. But again it is up to the politicians to decide what happens next. In the meantime, there are certainly signals and messages coming from Hamas, and the mediators are busy trying to restore calm.

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IDF playing the same old game in Gaza

And so we can already say that the IDF was not dispatched on a military operation to replace the Hamas regime in Gaza. As such, the political leadership's directive to the army has been and still remains to push Hamas back into a weakened state - deterred, but still in charge in Gaza. To achieve this objective, the army has to erode the military capabilities of both Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

 

The desired objective is several years of calm along the Gaza border, more than the three years of quiet following the 2014 war against Hamas. Is the army going to implement such a plan in the coming days? It's doubtful.

The IDF on the Gaza border (Photo: AP)

Such an objective would require an operation lasting several weeks. But does the political echelon really have several weeks, on the eve of elections, on the eve of the Passover holiday, and on the eve of the Eurovision?

For the past three years, the IDF has been preparing for the fourth operation against Hamas since it came to power in 2006. Over the past year, under the leadership of GOC Southern Command Herzl Halevi, a unique combat doctrine has been formulated to deal with the need for prolonged control of the Gaza Strip as a result of military action.

This combat doctrine was translated into an operational program for land and air. When Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi took office, preparations for the destruction of Hamas' military power became the central preoccupation of the IDF.

Devastation in Gaza after IAF strikes (Photo: AFP)

Kochavi's situation assessment has determined that it will happen this year. Over the past 12 months, Israel has conducted 11 rounds of fighting against Hamas. The tension on the fence only increases and the General Staff came to the conclusion a few months ago that going to war could serve as a strategic warning.

The operation, however, has begun sooner than Israel estimated, and in inclement weather that is less convenient for achieving the IDF's goal of destroying Hamas' military force without collateral damage.

Given that the elections, the Eurovision and the Passover holiday are liable to dictate the army's timetable, the operation could end as merely another round of major pyrotechnics with glorious photographs of the bombed-out Hamas leadership, while actually having to make do with very limited goals.

Indeed, the potential mission could take one of several forms - from the IDF concentrating its focus on a ground operation involving reservists, to an operation based mainly on the regular army, which has been training for this for more than a year, to a solely aerial operation.

IDF troops along the Gaza border (Photo: EPA)

Former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman once recommended to the cabinet that Israel implement a plan that was primarily based air strikes, which he claimed would have brought calm to Gaza for years. The cabinet rejected this.

According to the IDF Spokesperson's Unit, the Southern Command will be reinforced by two regular brigades and a divisional unit that is ready to absorb additional force, fighting alongside the Gaza Division. This deployment signals that this round of fighting will be heavily based on air force strikes. But will such air strikes be halted after a day or two, due to international pressure, bringing yet another round of fighting an abrupt end without any real results, or substantial damage to Hamas' forces?

The rocket strike on the Sharon region hints at the potential for a real deterioration, as Hamas and Islamic Jihad possess dozens of self-produced projectiles capable of hitting Ben-Gurion Airport and harming Israel's aviation links with the rest of the world.

But if Hamas chooses this route, it will find itself under Israeli military attack from both air and ground that could last for weeks. The General Staff also realizes that in order to remove such a threat to the home front - and as quickly as possible - it is necessary to enter enemy territory and destroy it.

Hamas currently has about 5,000 rockets and Islamic Jihad about 8,000. The two organizations could fire hundreds of rockets a day, as well as mortar fire at the surrounding communities and the forces deployed in the south. During the 2014 war, they fired an average of 170 rockets a day for 51 days, and they now have greater capabilities than they did five years ago.

The site of Ismail Haniyeh's Gaza office after it was bombed by Israel (Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)

Hamas has a rocket that is essentially an explosive barrel. Known as the Thunder, it has a range of 5 kilometers and a 400kg warhead designed to penetrate the reinforced roofs in the Gaza border communities.

Hamas forces operate within five or six divisions, composed of more than 20 battalions. It has about 30,000 active fighters and another 7,000 in reserve. It is this power that Israel wants to strike, in order to weaken the organization's rule.

To do this, the IDF would also have to deal with 6,000 Islamic Jihad fighters. Hamas is equipped with dozens of anti-tank rockets, unmanned aerial vehicles and advanced underwater equipment. It also has an organized plan of fire against the Israeli home front and an underground defense system that would present a challenge for any force that tries to invade the Gaza Strip.

Devastation in Gaza after IAF strikes (Photo: EPA)

Does the IDF intend to deal with the operational challenges that Hamas has created, or will it be satisfied with a large punitive operation based on striking attractive targets such as high-rise buildings and Ismail Haniyeh's office? If the social media posts from Gaza are any indication of the mood of the local population, it seems there is no great love for Hamas' activities there.

  

They also cannot understand what the organization is doing, and are waiting for the Egyptian delegation of mediators, which has been in Israel for two days, to return to Gaza and bring the quiet with them.

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Unexpected Gaza rocket leaves Israel with tough choices

The rocket launch early Monday morning, that hit a house in the Sharon region, took Israel completely by surprise. It was carried out in order to cause casualties. The large rocket, apparently an M-75 and apparently manufactured by Islamic Jihad, was fired at dawn, when people were still sleeping. The rocket was fired to its maximum range (80-140 km) towards an area of Israel that the people who launched it believed was not protected by the Iron Dome missile defense system.

The rocket, which probably carried a warhead containing dozens of kilograms of explosives, hit the center of the living room. Fortunately, the family members were sleeping in inner rooms, and therefore escaped serious injury. The building, made of reinforced concrete with large windows and openings, also helped to dilute the impact of the blast.

Site of rocket fire on home in central Israel (Photo: AFP)

An Egyptian intelligence delegation was supposed to arrive in Gaza on Monday morning, to renew negotiations with Hamas on a phased arrangement in which the Gaza Strip would receive benefits from Israel, Egypt and Qatar, in return for a stable and long-term calm.

The immediate aim of the negotiations and of the Egyptians, with Israel's encouragement, was to prevent a major escalation at the end of this week, which will mark the first anniversary of the March of Return demonstrations, and the airborne incendiary and explosives devices that set swathes of southern Israel alight. It is unlikely, therefore, that Hamas is behind the rocket launch, for the organization that governs the Gaza Strip does not want a rift with Egypt, for the Egyptians could well close the Rafah crossing and turn the Gaza Strip into one big prison.

Fire set by indendiary device launched from Gaza

The other Gaza terrorist organization that produces and fires such rockets is Islamic Jihad, which is supported and directed by Iran. Islamic Jihad recently appointed a new extremist leader, Ziyad al-Nakhala, and has declared that it will not tolerate the deaths of Palestinians.

Six people were killed last week (two of them on Friday in the riots along the Gaza-Israel fence) and it appears that the rocket fire was carried out, perhaps even in sly coordination with Hamas, as retaliation.

Palestinian protests along Gaza fence (Photo: EPA)

Another possible motive is the jamming of cell phones smuggled in to terrorists in Israeli prisons, which has caused violent protests among inmates. On Sunday, a prison guard was stabbed and moderately wounded during a riot at Ketziot jail the Negev, and several prisoners were seriously wounded.

Israel was taken totally by surprise, due to an assessment that Hamas neither wanted to provoke Egypt nor trigger a major war with the Jewish state. But the Islamic Jihad has its own agenda, which is relatively free of concerns for the population, and therefore can launch a rocket at such a tense time and in an unprotected area, with the goal of causing casualties.

Site of rocket fire on home in central Israel (Photo: AFP)

The rocket was delayed until Monday morning, perhaps in order to spoil Benjamin Netanyahu's victory lap in Washington as well as cause casualties and take Israel by surprise. We can expect the Israeli response to be extremely severe and be carried out from the air in such a way as to have maximum impact without causing a major escalation and conflagration in the immediate run-up to the election on April 9. One should also keep in mind that the situation in the West Bank is also very volatile at present, and any fighting in Gaza could well spread to the other Palestinian territories.

Israel has no interest in being hasty in its response, perhaps because Netanyahu is still in Washington and will only return after his meeting with Donald Trump, and perhaps because any person who would be a significant target in Gaza is already hiding underground. The prime minister's return to Israel makes it possible to delay the response a little until his return. Sometimes, making the enemy wait – and sweat - a little is worthwhile. In any event, Israel's deterrence has been delivered a severely blow, and must be restored.

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In Trumpland, there is no such thing as a free lunch - not even for Netanyahu

Two weeks before the Knesset elections, Benjamin Netanyahu landed in Washington with the greatest gift of all from the US president – recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights – already in hand.

The issue will be at the center of their meeting on Monday morning, part of which will be open to reporters. This will happen at the exact same time as Blue and White leader Benny Gantz undergoes his first baptism of fire - delivering the keynote address at the annual AIPAC conference.

Netanyahu and Trump (Photo: GPO)

Cunning timing, if it was planned so, for Gantz must know that given the choice, the media would undoubtedly prefer to report from the White House than his speech in a conference hall for a pro-Israel lobby.

Netanyahu could not have wished for a greater gift from Trump: Just days before Israel goes to the polls, the president has handed him the Golan Heights – allowing Netanyahu to present himself not only as a great statesman who knows how to operate on the world stage and can develop a friendship with the American president, but also as a zealous guardian of Israeli security who only wants to ensure that the north will not suffer once Hezbollah and the Iranians have established themselves in Syria.

When Trump meets Netanyahu, he intends to sign a document that makes this recognition of Israeli rule on the Golan a fact. Given that the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats, it is likely that Trump will use a special presidential order instructing the State Department to change its policy without requiring congressional approval.

Irises in bloom on the Golan Heights

Monday morning's meeting is likely to be a display of mutual love. Trump will lavish words of praise on the prime minister, and Netanyahu will no doubt trot out every expression of gratitude and appreciation for the president who gave him Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and the American exit from the nuclear agreement with Iran.

Trump most probably does like Netanyahu, who he sees as the political yang to his yin. Both are under investigation, both have displayed public contempt for their respective justice systems and claim that the left and the media have joined together to force them out of office. But Trump is also a shrewd businessman who operated in the world of New York real estate — he does not do free lunches, and certainly not free gifts. Everything has a price in Trumpland and the day of reckoning will certainly come for Netanyahu.

Netanyahu election billboards featuring Trump (Photo: EPA)

The current US president cannot hide his desire to prove to the world that he can do better than his predecessor, Barack Obama, and has promised that he has the "deal of the century" to bring peace between Israel and the Palestinians. He is determined to do it, not only to prove that he is better than his predecessor, more creative and better at sealing the deal - he also needs it like he needs air to breathe. 

Trump has been unable to notch up any achievement in US foreign policy. He has fought with the whole world and damaged America's global influence. His attempts to reach an agreement with North Korea have collapsed – for all his flattery of the tyrant from Pyongyang, all he got in return was a raised middle finger. After two televised summits that led nowhere, Trump has realized that Kim Jong-un has no intention of carrying out the nuclear disarmament that the American president wants.

If Trump does manage to bring about a peace treaty in which other Arab countries are involved, he can claim a spot among the greats, present himself as a statesman with real achievements, and start dreaming again about a Nobel Peace Prize.

Netanyahu calls Trump to thank him for his support on the Golan issue (Photo: GPO)

And in order for this to happen, he must have his desired outcome in the elections in Israel. If Netanyahu is indeed re-elected and form the next government, Trump will obviously exert pressure on him in order to obtain the concessions that will bring the Palestinians back to the negotiating table.

After all, Trump gave Netanyahu so many gifts, including reelection, that he is certain that he deserves this payback from the prime minister. And while his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, hailed Trump as a modern day Queen Esther sent by God to save Israel, it's not likely that Trump even knows who Queen Esther was or what she did.

What he does know, however, is he would never agree to be a sucker, not even for his friend Bibi, whom he will anoint this week with oil and make every possible gesture to help him win in the elections.

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